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Professor Dr Mathias Trabandt

Professor Dr Mathias Trabandt
Current Position

since 4/17

Research Fellow Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 4/21

Professor of Macroeconomics

Goethe University Frankfurt

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Research Interests
  • macroeconomics
  • monetary economics
  • epidemics

Mathias Trabandt joined the Department of Macroeconomics as a Research Fellow in April 2017. His research focuses on macroeconomics, monetary economics, public economics, labour economics, international macroeconomics, financial frictions, applied econometrics, and epidemics.

Before joining Goethe University Frankfurt, Mathias Trabandt was a Professor at Freie Universität Berlin. Earlier in his career, Mathias Trabandt was Chief of the "Global Modeling Studies Section" at the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington D.C. and held positions as an economist at the European Central Bank, Deutsche Bundesbank and Sveriges Riksbank.

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Professor Dr Mathias Trabandt
Professor Dr Mathias Trabandt
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Publications

Citations
8573

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Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result

Florin Bilbiie Mathias Trabandt

in: Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming

Abstract

<p>We show an equivalence result in the standard representative agent New Keynesian model after demand, wage markup and correlated price markup and TFP shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case- flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence result arises if the price and wage Phillips curves' slopes are identical and generalizes to any pair of price and wage Phillips curve slopes such that their sum and product are identical. Nevertheless, the cyclical implications for profits and wages are substantially different. We discuss how the equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale in production. Lastly, we point to an econometric identification problem raised by our equivalence result and discuss possible solutions thereof.</p>

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Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity

Martin S. Eichenbaum Miguel Godinho de Matos Francisco Lima Sergio Rebelo Mathias Trabandt

in: Journal of Political Economy, No. 8, 2024

Abstract

The Covid epidemic had a large impact on economic activity. In contrast, the dramatic decline in mortality from infectious diseases over the past 120 years had a small economic impact. We argue that people's response to successive Covid waves helps reconcile these two findings. Our analysis uses a unique administrative data set with anonymized monthly expenditures at the individual level that covers the first three Covid waves. Consumer expenditures fell by about the same amount in the first and third waves, even though the risk of getting infected was larger in the third wave. We find that people had pessimistic prior beliefs about the case-fatality rates that converged over time to the true case-fatality rates. Using a model where Covid is endemic, we show that the impact of Covid is small when people know the true case-fatality rate but large when people have empirically-plausible pessimistic prior beliefs about the case-fatality rate. These results reconcile the large economic impact of Covid with the small effect of the secular decline in mortality from infectious diseases estimated in the literature.

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Understanding Post-Covid Inflation Dynamics

Martín Harding Jesper Lindé Mathias Trabandt

in: Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2023

Abstract

We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the post-COVID period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate more sizeable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model. Finally, our model implies that the central bank faces a more severe trade-off between inflation and output stabilization when inflation is elevated.

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