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Was taugt der Investitionsbooster?Reint GroppDer Spiegel, 23. Juni 2025
We show an equivalence result in the standard representative agent New Keynesian model after demand, wage markup and correlated price markup and TFP shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case- flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence result arises if the price and wage Phillips curves' slopes are identical and generalizes to any pair of price and wage Phillips curve slopes such that their sum and product are identical. Nevertheless, the cyclical implications for profits and wages are substantially different. We discuss how the equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale in production. Lastly, we point to an econometric identification problem raised by our equivalence result and discuss possible solutions thereof.
Why are children with lower socioeconomic status (SES) substantially less likely to be enrolled in child care? We study whether barriers in the application process work against lower-SES children — the group known to benefit strongest from child care enrollment. In an RCT in Germany with highly subsidized child care (N = 607), we offer treated families information and personal assistance for applications. We find substantial, equity-enhancing effects of the treatment, closing half of the large SES gap in child care enrollment. Increased enrollment for lower-SES families is likely driven by altered application knowledge and behavior. We discuss scalability of our intervention and derive policy implications for the design of universal child care programs.
This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation.
We study how deposit competition affects a bank's decision to securitize mortgages. Exploiting the state-specific removal of deposit market caps across the U.S. as a source of competition, we find a 7.1 percentage point increase in the probability that banks securitize mortgage loans. This result is driven by an 11 basis point increase in deposit costs and corresponding reductions in banks' deposit holdings. Our results are strongest among banks that rely more on deposit funding. These findings highlight a hitherto undocumented and unintended regulatory cause that motivates banks to adopt the originate-to-distribute model.
This study investigates the impact of inaccurate assumptions on economic forecast precision. We construct a new dataset comprising an unbalanced panel of annual German GDP forecasts from various institutions, taking into account their underlying assumptions. We explicitly control for different forecast horizons to reflect the information available at the time of release. Our analysis reveals that approximately 75% of the variation in squared forecast errors can be attributed to the variation in squared errors of the initial assumptions. This finding emphasizes the importance of accurate assumptions in economic forecasting and suggests that forecasters should transparently disclose their assumptions to enhance the usefulness of their forecasts in shaping effective policy recommendations.
Does information leakage in a target's social networks increase its stock price prior to a merger announcement? Evidence reveals that a target with more social connections indeed experiences a higher pre-announcement price run-up. This effect does not exist during or after the merger announcement, or in windows ending two months before the announcement. It is more pronounced among targets with severe asymmetric information, and weaker when the information about the upcoming merger is publicly available prior to the announcement. It is also weaker in expedited deals such as tender offers.
This paper investigates the relationship between heterogeneity in sectoral price stickiness and the response of the economy to aggregate real shocks. We show that sectoral heterogeneity reduces inflation persistence for a constant average duration of price spells, and that inflation persistence can fall despite duration increases associated with increases in heterogeneity. We also find that sectoral heterogeneity reduces the persistence and volatility of interest rate and output gap for a constant price spells duration, while the qualitative impact on inflation volatility tends to be positive. A relevant policy implication is that neglecting price stickiness heterogeneity can impair the economic dynamics assessment.
In this paper, we study champions of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance among the U.S. publicly traded firms and their common characteristics by utilizing machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of firms’ CSR activity. We contribute to the CSR and leadership determinants literature by introducing the first comprehensive framework for analyzing the factors associated with corporate engagement with socially responsible behaviors by grouping all relevant predictors into four broad categories: corporate governance, managerial incentives, leadership, and firm characteristics. We find that strong corporate governance characteristics, as manifested in board member heterogeneity and managerial incentives, are the top predictors of CSR performance. Our results suggest policy implications for providing incentives and fostering characteristics conducive to firms “doing good.”
Deutschland befindet sich schon im zweiten Jahr in einer Rezession, und Wachstum ist laut den Prognosen der Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute auch 2025 kaum zu erwarten. Viel schlimmer ist allerdings, dass neue Prognosen des langfristigen Wachstums im Gleichgewicht (das so genannte Produktionspotenzial) dramatisch niedrigere Wachstumsraten für die nächsten 20 Jahre vorhersagen, wenn sich die Wirtschaftspolitik nicht deutlich ändert. Eine wesentliche Ursache für die Wachstumsschwäche ist die Investitionsschwäche. Um diese anzugehen, reicht das beschlossene Sondervermögen für Infrastruktur nicht aus. Die neue Bundesregierung muss die Bürokratie abbauen und Planungsverfahren verkürzen, eine rationale Klima- und Energiepolitik verfolgen, das Rentensystem mutig in Richtung Kapitaldeckungsverfahren umbauen und eine Einkommensteuerreform auf den Weg bringen, die mittlere Einkommen entlastet.
Wie haben sich die Einkommen unterschiedlicher Bevölkerungsgruppen in Deutschland seit der Wiedervereinigung entwickelt? Unsere Studie untersucht die Entwicklung und Zusammensetzung des Nationaleinkommens entlang der Verteilung im Zeitraum von 1992 bis 2019. Während die untere Hälfte der Einkommensverteilung (unterhalb des Medianeinkommens) bis Mitte der 2000er Jahre reale Einkommensverluste verzeichnete, stiegen die Einkommen der oberen Mittelschicht (die obersten 10%, ohne das einkommensstärkste 1%) stetig. Die Spitzeneinkommen (oberstes 1%) blieben zwischen 1992 und 2019 relativ stabil. Arbeitseinkommen dominieren bei den unteren 99%, während das oberste 1% von Unternehmenseinkommen – insbesondere aus arbeitsintensiven Dienstleistungsunternehmen und freien Berufen – bestimmt ist. Unsere Ergebnisse sind zentral für die Debatte über Reformen der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge und der Einkommensbesteuerung.
