The Impact of Banking and Sovereign Debt Crisis Risk in the Eurozone on the Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Stefan Eichler
Applied Financial Economics,
Nr. 15,
2012
Abstract
I study the impact of financial crisis risk in the eurozone on the euro/US dollar exchange rate. Using daily data from 3 July 2006 to 30 September 2010, I find that the euro depreciates against the US dollar when banking or sovereign debt crisis risk increases in the eurozone. While the external value of the euro is more sensitive to changes in sovereign debt crisis risk in vulnerable member countries than in stable member countries, the impact of banking crisis risk is similar for both country blocs. Moreover, rising default risk of medium and large eurozone banks leads to a depreciation of the euro while small banks’ default risk has no significant impact, showing the relevance of systemically important banks with regards to the exchange rate.
Artikel Lesen
Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area
Mathias Trabandt, Günter Coenen, Roland Straub
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings,
Nr. 3,
2012
Abstract
How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of the European Central Bank's New Area-Wide Model with a rich specification of the fiscal sector. A detailed modeling of the fiscal sector and the incorporation of as many as eight fiscal time series appear pivotal for our result.
Artikel Lesen
The Halle Economic Projection Model
Sebastian Giesen, Oliver Holtemöller, Juliane Scharff, Rolf Scheufele
Economic Modelling,
Nr. 4,
2012
Abstract
In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model -- the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) -- is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov et al. Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In doing so, we consider Germany, France, and Italy which represent together about 70 percent of Euro area GDP. The model combines core equations of the New-Keynesian standard DSGE model with empirically useful ad-hoc equations. We estimate this model using Bayesian techniques and evaluate the forecasting properties. Additionally, we provide an impulse response analysis and a historical shock decomposition.
Artikel Lesen
The Impact of Government Procurement Composition on Private R&D Activities
Viktor Slavtchev, Simon Wiederhold
Abstract
This paper addresses the question of whether government procurement can work as a de facto innovation policy tool. We develop an endogenous growth model with quality-improving in-novation that incorporates industries with heterogeneous innovation sizes. Government demand in high-tech industries increases the market size in these industries and, with it, the incentives for private firms to invest in R&D. At the economy-wide level, the additional R&D induced in high-tech industries outweighs the R&D foregone in all remaining industries. The implications of the model are empirically tested using a unique data set that includes federal procurement in U.S. states. We find evidence that a shift in the composition of government purchases toward high-tech industries indeed stimulates privately funded company R&D.
Artikel Lesen
Bank-specific Shocks and the Real Economy
Claudia M. Buch, Katja Neugebauer
Journal of Banking and Finance,
Nr. 8,
2011
Abstract
Governments often justify interventions into the financial system in the form of bail outs or liquidity assistance with the systemic importance of large banks for the real economy. In this paper, we analyze whether idiosyncratic shocks to loan growth at large banks have effects on real GDP growth. We employ a measure of idiosyncratic shocks which follows Gabaix (forthcoming). He shows that idiosyncratic shocks to large firms have an impact on US GDP growth. In an application to the banking sector, we find evidence that changes in lending by large banks have a significant short-run impact on GDP growth. Episodes of negative loan growth rates and the Eastern European countries in our sample drive these results.
Artikel Lesen
The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
Abstract
While the long run relation between money and inflation is well established, empirical evidence on the adjustment to the long run equilibrium is very heterogeneous. In this paper we show, that the development of US consumer price inflation between 1960Q1 and 2005Q4 is strongly driven by money overhang. To this end, we use a multivariate state space framework that substantially expands the traditional vector error correction approach. This approach allows us to estimate the persistent components of velocity and GDP. A sign restriction approach is subsequently used to identify the structural shocks to the signal equations of the state space model, that explain money growth, inflation and GDP growth. We also account for the possibility that measurement error exhibited by simple-sum monetary aggregates causes the consequences of monetary shocks to be improperly identified by using a Divisia monetary aggregate. Our findings suggest that when the money is measured using a reputable index number, the quantity theory holds for the United States.
Artikel Lesen
Kooperationsintensität und Kooperationsförderung in der deutschen Laserindustrie
Muhamed Kudic, Katja Guhr, I. Bullmer, Jutta Günther
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 3,
2011
Abstract
Die Hightech-Strategie der Bundesregierung definiert acht Schlüsseltechnologien, zu denen unter anderem die optischen Technologien und somit die Laserstrahlquellenhersteller zählen. Der Beitrag stützt sich auf aktuelle empirische Auswertungen und gibt einen ersten deskriptiven Überblick über den wissensintensiven Industriezweig der Laserstrahlquellenhersteller in Deutschland zwischen 1990 und 2010. Es zeigt sich, dass die Industrieentwicklung im Betrachtungszeitraum Schwankungen unterlag, in der Summe jedoch durch Expansion gekennzeichnet war. Zudem lässt sich eine hohe Präsenz vor allem von Großunternehmen der Laserstrahlquellenindustrie in Bayern, Baden-Württemberg und Thüringen feststellen. Diese regionalen Verteilungsmuster lassen sich im Hinblick auf die Partizipation an öffentlich geförderten Kooperationsprojekten wiederfinden, allerdings nur bei Betrachtung der absoluten Zahl von Verbundprojekten je Bundesland. In Relation zur Anzahl der Firmen im jeweiligen Bundesland wird die öffentliche Kooperationsförderung insbesondere in Thüringen, Rheinland-Pfalz und Hamburg stark nachgefragt. Somit ergibt sich für die räumliche Verteilung der Kooperationsintensität und Kooperationsförderung pro Firma ein differenziertes Muster.
Artikel Lesen
Is Rated Debt Arm's Length? Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions
Reint E. Gropp, C. Hirsch, Jan Pieter Krahnen
CFS Working Papers, No. 2011/10,
Nr. 10,
2011
Abstract
In this paper we challenge the view that corporate bonds are always arm's length debt. We analyze the effect of bond ratings on the stock price return to acquirers in M&A transactions, which tend to have significant effects on creditor wealth. We find acquirers abnormal returns to be higher if they are unrated, controlling for a wide variety of other effects identified in the literature. Tracing the difference in returns to distinct managerial decisions, we find that, everything else constant, rated firms increase their leverage in takeover transactions by less than their unrated counterparts. Consistent with a significant role for rating agencies, we find monitoring effects to be strongest when acquirer bonds are rated at the borderline between investment grade and junk. Finally, we are able to empirically exclude a large number of alternative explanations for the empirical regularities that we uncover.
Artikel Lesen
The Political Setting of Social Security Contributions in Europe in the Business Cycle
Toralf Pusch, Ingmar Kumpmann
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 4,
2011
Abstract
Social security revenues are influenced by business cycle movements. In order to
support the working of automatic stabilizers it would be necessary to calculate social insurance contribution rates independently from the state of the business cycle. This paper investigates whether European countries set social contribution rates according to such a rule. By means of VAR estimations, country-specific effects can be analyzed – in contrast to earlier studies which used a panel design. As a result, some countries under investigation seem to vary their social contribution rates in a procyclical way.
Artikel Lesen
