An Assessment of Bank Merger Success in Germany
Michael Koetter
German Economic Review,
Nr. 2,
2008
Abstract
German banks have experienced a merger wave since the early 1990s. However, the success of bank mergers remains a continuous matter of debate.This paper suggests a taxonomy to evaluate post-merger performance on the basis of cost and profit efficiency (CE and PE). I identify successful mergers as those that fulfill simultaneously two criteria. First, merged institutes must exhibit efficiency levels above the average of non-merging banks. Second, banks must exhibit efficiency changes between merger and evaluation year above efficiency changes of non-merging banks. I assess the post-merger performance up to 11 years after the mergers and relate it to the transfer of skills, the adequacy to merge distressed banks and the role of geographical distance. Roughly every second merger is a success in terms of either CE or PE. The margin of success in terms of CE is narrow, as efficiency differentials between merging and non-merging banks are around 1 and 2 percentage points. PE performance is slightly larger. More importantly, mergers boost in particular the change in PE, thus indicating persistent improvements of merging banks to improve the ability to generate profits.
Artikel Lesen
The Stability of Bank Efficiency Rankings when Risk Preferences and Objectives are Different
Michael Koetter
European Journal of Finance,
Nr. 2,
2008
Abstract
We analyze the stability of efficiency rankings of German universal banks between 1993 and 2004. First, we estimate traditional efficiency scores with stochastic cost and alternative profit frontier analysis. Then, we explicitly allow for different risk preferences and measure efficiency with a structural model based on utility maximization. Using the almost ideal demand system, we estimate input- and profit-demand functions to obtain proxies for expected return and risk. Efficiency is then measured in this risk-return space. Mean risk-return efficiency is somewhat higher than cost and considerably higher than profit efficiency (PE). More importantly, rank–order correlation between these measures are low or even negative. This suggests that best-practice institutes should not be identified on the basis of traditional efficiency measures alone. Apparently, low cost and/or PE may merely result from alternative yet efficiently chosen risk-return trade-offs.
Artikel Lesen
Accounting for Distress in Bank Mergers
Michael Koetter, J. W. B. Bos, Frank Heid, James W. Kolari, Clemens J. M. Kool, Daniel Porath
Journal of Banking and Finance,
Nr. 10,
2007
Abstract
Most bank merger studies do not control for hidden bailouts, which may lead to biased results. In this study we employ a unique data set of approximately 1000 mergers to analyze the determinants of bank mergers. We use undisclosed information on banks’ regulatory intervention history to distinguish between distressed and non-distressed mergers. Among merging banks, we find that improving financial profiles lower the likelihood of distressed mergers more than the likelihood of non-distressed mergers. The likelihood to acquire a bank is also reduced but less than the probability to be acquired. Both distressed and non-distressed mergers have worse CAMEL profiles than non-merging banks. Hence, non-distressed mergers may be motivated by the desire to forestall serious future financial distress and prevent regulatory intervention.
Artikel Lesen
The Impact of Competition on Bank Orientation
Hans Degryse, Steven Ongena
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Nr. 3,
2007
Abstract
How do banks react to increased competition? Recent banking theory significantly disagrees regarding the impact of competition on bank orientation—i.e., the choice of relationship-based versus transactional banking. We empirically investigate the impact of interbank competition on bank branch orientation. We employ a unique data set containing detailed information on bank–firm relationships. We find that bank branches facing stiff local competition engage considerably more in relationship-based lending. Our results illustrate that competition and relationships are not necessarily inimical.
Artikel Lesen
Slippery Slopes of Stress: Ordered Failure Events in German Banking
Thomas Kick, Michael Koetter
Journal of Financial Stability,
Nr. 2,
2007
Abstract
Outright bank failures without prior indication of financial instability are very rare. In fact, banks can be regarded as troubled to varying degrees before outright closure. But failure studies usually neglect the ordinal nature of bank distress. We distinguish four different kinds of increasingly severe events on the basis of the distress database of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Only the worst distress event entails a bank to exit the market. Since the four categories of hazard functions are not proportional, we specify a generalized ordered logit model to estimate respective probabilities of distress simultaneously. We find that the likelihood of ordered distress events changes differently in response to given changes in the financial profiles of banks. Consequently, bank failure studies should account more explicitly for the different shades of distress. This allows an assessment of the relative importance of financial profile components for different degrees of bank distress.
Artikel Lesen
Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System
Hans Degryse, Grégory Nguyen
International Journal of Central Banking,
Nr. 2,
2007
Abstract
Robust (cross-border) interbank markets are important for the proper functioning of modern financial systems. However, a network of interbank exposures may lead to domino effects following the event of an initial bank failure. We investigate the evolution and determinants of contagion risk for the Belgian banking system over the period 1993–2002 using detailed information on aggregate interbank exposures of individual banks, large bilateral interbank exposures, and cross-border interbank exposures. The "structure" of the interbank market affects contagion risk. We find that a change from a complete structure (where all banks have symmetric links) toward a "multiplemoney-center" structure (where money centers are symmetrically linked to otherwise disconnected banks) has decreased the risk and impact of contagion. In addition, an increase in the relative importance of cross-border interbank exposures has lowered local contagion risk. However, this reduction may have been compensated by an increase in contagion risk stemming from foreign banks.
Artikel Lesen
Repercusiones de la integración y consolidación de los sectores bancarios europeos sobre la innovación y las actividades de los emprendedores
Hans Degryse, Steven Ongena, Maria Fabiana Penas
Papeles de Economía Española,
Nr. 110,
2006
Abstract
En este artículo se analiza si el programa de intensificación de la integración del sector financier europeo puede dañar a la innovación y al crecimiento en Europa. En particular, es preciso resaltar los problemas que dicha integración financiera puede ocasionar sobre los últimos avances en materia de desarrollo empresarial. La integración financiera, al intensificar la competencia y la consolidación del sector bancario europeo, podría poner en peligro la financiación procedente de las fuentes más innovadoras. Sin embargo, al sopesar los datos actuales, la conclusión es que estos problemas serían, a lo sumo, transitorios.
Artikel Lesen
The role of banking portfolios in the transmission from currency crises to banking crises - potential effects of Basel II
Tobias Knedlik, Johannes Ströbel
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 21,
2006
Abstract
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die möglichen Effekte der Basel II-Bankenregulierung auf die Transmission von Währungskrisen zu Bankenkrisen. Die Analyse des Beispiels Südkorea zeigt die wichtige Rolle der Unausgeglichenheit von Bankaktiva und -passiva in bezug auf deren Fristigkeit und Währung bei diesem Transmissionsprozess und stellt dar wie Basel II auf die Bankenbilanzen gewirkt hätte. Es wird gezeigt, dass die regulatorischen Kapitalanforderungen unter Basel II, aufgrund der guten Kreditratings im Vorfeld der Krise, geringer gewesen wären als unter Basel I. Dadurch wäre die Krise verschärft worden. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird analysiert, ob die Ratingagenturen ihr Verhalten seit dem Versagen bei der Prognose der Asienkrise geändert haben. Dieser Beitrag findet keine empirische Evidenz für eine Berücksichtigung der Unausgeglichenheit in den Bankenbilanzen bei der Ableitung von Ratingergebnissen für Länder. Deshalb muss die Effektivität von Basel II bei der Prävention der Transmission von Währungs- zu Bankenkrisen sowohl im Falle Südkoreas als auch bei möglichen zukünftigen Krisen angezweifelt werden.
Artikel Lesen
Measurement Matters — Alternative Input Price Proxies for Bank Efficiency Analyses
Michael Koetter
Journal of Financial Services Research,
Nr. 2,
2006
Abstract
Most bank efficiency studies that use stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) employ each bank’s own implicit input price when estimating efficient frontiers. But at the same time, most studies are based on cost and/or profit models that assume perfect input markets. Traditional input price proxies therefore contain at least substantial measurement error. We suggest here two alternative input market definitions to approximate exogenous input prices. We have access to Bundesbank data, which allows us to cover virtually all German universal banks between 1993 and 2003. The use of alternative input price proxies leads to mean cost efficiency that is significantly five percentage points lower compared to traditional input prices. Mean profit efficiency is hardly affected. Across models, small cooperative banks located in large western states perform best while large banks and those located in eastern states rank lowest.
Artikel Lesen
Still Overbanked and Unprofitable? Two Decades of German Banking
Michael Koetter, Thorsten Nestmann, Stéphanie Stolz, Michael Wedow
Kredit und Kapital,
Nr. 4,
2006
Abstract
Artikel Lesen
