Excess Volatility in European Equity Style Indices - New Evidence
Marian Berneburg
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 16,
2006
Abstract
Are financial markets efficient? One proposition that seems to contradict this is Shiller’s finding of excess volatility in asset prices and its resulting rejection of the discounted cash flow model. This paper replicates Shiller’s approach for a different data set and extends his analysis by testing for a long-run relationship by means of a cointegration analysis. Contrary to previous studies, monthly data for an integrated European stock market is being used, with special attention to equity style investment strategies. On the basis of this analysis’ results, Shiller’s findings seem questionable. While a long-run relationship between prices and dividends can be observed for all equity styles, a certain degree, but to a much smaller extent than in Shiller’s approach, of excess volatility cannot be rejected. But it seems that a further relaxation of Shiller’s assumptions would completely eliminate the finding of an overly strong reaction of prices to changes in dividends. Two interesting side results are, that all three investment styles seem to have equal performance when adjusting for risk, which by itself is an indication for efficiency and that market participants seem to use current dividend payments from one company as an indication for future dividend payments by other firms. Overall the results of this paper lead to the conclusion that efficiency cannot be rejected for an integrated European equity market.
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Neubeginn der ausländischen Direktinvestitionen nach 1990 - eine Einführung
Jutta Günther
Willkommene Investoren oder nationaler Ausverkauf?: Ausländische Direktinvestitionen in Ostmitteleuropa im 20. Jahrhundert. Frankfurter Studien zur Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte Ostmitteleuropas, Band 11,
2006
Abstract
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Cross-border Bank Contagion in Europe
Reint E. Gropp, M. Lo Duca, Jukka M. Vesala
ECB Working Paper, No. 662,
Nr. 662,
2006
Abstract
This paper analyses cross-border contagion in a sample of European banks from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in a given country that experience a large shock on the same day (“coexceedances“) as a function of variables measuring common shocks and lagged coexceedances in other countries. Large shocks are measured by the bottom 95th percentile of the distribution of the daily percentage change in the distance to default of the bank. We find evidence in favour of significant cross-border contagion. We also find some evidence that since the introduction of the euro cross-border contagion may have increased. The results seem to be very robust to changes in the specification.
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The contribution of wage developments to labour market performance. DG ECFIN, European Economy, Special Report 1/2005
Herbert Buscher, Christian Dreger, Manuel Artís, Miquel Clar, Raúl Ramos
,
2005
Abstract
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Quality of Service, Efficiency, and Scale in Network Industries: An Analysis of European Electricity Distribution. EPRG Working Paper 05/04
Christian Growitsch, Tooraj Jamasb, Michael Pollitt
Externe Publikationen,
2005
Abstract
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Book Review: C. Wyplosz (ed.), The Impact of EMU on Europe and the Developing Countries, 2001, Oxford: Oxford University Press
Tobias Knedlik
African Development Perspectives Yearbook, No. 11,
2006
Abstract
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Enhanced Cooperation in an Enlarged EU, CeGE-Discussion Paper No. 53
J. Ahrens, Renate Ohr, Götz Zeddies
,
2006
Abstract
The paper adresses the need for more flexibility in the integration process of the European Union after its recent eastward enlargement. Due to the increasing number of decision-makers and the increasing heterogeneity of economic structures, financial constraints, societal preferences, and political interests, European integration based on the uniformity principle is hardly feasible. In order to avoid a rank growth of integration and yet to strengthen the momentum of flexibility, so-called enhanced cooperation appears to be an appropriate instrument to be applied to the overall integration process. In this context the paper analyzes different possible developments of selected common policies in the EU if enhanced cooperation is practised by a sub-group of EU-members. Based on cluster analysis similarities and distinctions among the EU members with respect to some specific policy realms are elaborated to identify clusters, or clubs, of countries which may apply the instrument of enhanced cooperation in the specific policy fields.
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Economies of Scope in European Railways: An Efficiency Analysis
Christian Growitsch, Heike Wetzel
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 5,
2006
Abstract
In the course of railway reforms in the end of the last century, national European governments, as well the EU Commission, decided to open markets and to separate railway networks from train operations. Vertically integrated railway companies – companies owning a network and providing transport services – argue that such a separation of infrastructure and operations would diminish the advantages of vertical integration and would therefore not be suitable to raise economic welfare. In this paper, we conduct a pan-European analysis to investigate the performance of European railways with a particular focus on economies of vertical integration. We test the hypothesis that integrated railways realise economies of joint production and, thus, produce railway services on a higher level of efficiency. To determine whether joint or separate production is more efficient we apply a Data Envelopment Analysis super-efficiency bootstrapping model which relates the efficiency for integrated production to a virtual reference set consisting of the separated production technology. Our findings are that in a majority of European Railway companies exist economies of scope.
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Telecommunications, Trade and Growth: Gravity Modeling and Empirical Analysis for Eastern Europe and Russia
Albrecht Kauffmann
Economic Liberalization and Integration Policy: Options for Eastern Europe and Russia,
2006
Abstract
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