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EFN Report Autumn 2013: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2013 and 2014

, 2013
Abstract
In autumn 2013, the expansion of world output has slightly accelerated. The recovery in the euro area is partly a result of special effects such as a rebound of construction after a particularly cold winter. Other positive factors, however, are longer lasting. Above all, doubts about the future of the currency union have receded substantially. As a consequence, private households and firms are more prepared to take spending decisions. For these reasons, we have revised upward our GDP forecasts for 2013, to -0.3 per cent lower in 2013 than in 2012 (from -0.5 expected in the summer). For 2014, we expect a GDP growth of about 1.0% that will keep unemployment at similar levels to the ones observed in 2013 (12.3%). Our inflation expectations for 2013 have moderated to a y-o-y rate of 1.5%, and they remain subdued also in 2014, at about 1.4%.
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Im Fokus: Geförderte FuE-Verbundprojekte: Sächsische Akteure wählen zunehmend Partner in räumlicher Nähe

Mirko Titze, Matthias Brachert, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel, Nr. 3, 2013
Abstract
Externe Kooperationen bei innovativen Projekten sind mit einer Reihe von Vorteilen verbunden. Oft werden solche Projekte durch Kooperationen überhaupt erst möglich. Die Literatur stellt dabei insbesondere den Austausch von Wissen heraus. Für den Austausch einer ganz besonderen Form des Wissens, des so genannten nicht kodifizierten Wissens, ist oftmals räumliche Nähe erforderlich, da nicht kodifiziertes Wissen überwiegend durch persönliche Kontakte ausgetauscht wird. Der Bund und die Länder wenden eine ganze Reihe von Förderprogrammen an, die Anreize zur Aufnahme von innovativen Kooperationsprojekten bieten. Der vorliegende Beitrag analysiert die Kooperationsstrukturen innerhalb geförderter Verbundprojekte des Bundes in den Zeiträumen 1995 bis 2000 und 2005 bis 2010. Die Untersuchung richtet sich auf den Freistaat Sachsen. Es zeigt sich, dass die sächsischen Akteure im zweiten Zeitraum mehr Partner innerhalb Sachsens und der ostdeutschen Länder gewählt haben als in der ersten Periode. Dies spricht offenbar dafür, dass sächsische Partner attraktiver werden, und ermöglicht durch die räumliche Nähe den stärkeren Austausch von nicht kodifiziertem Wissen, welches wichtig für den Erfolg von Innovationsaktivitäten einer Region ist.
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EFN Report Summer 2013: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2013 and 2014

, 2013
Abstract
The structural problems in emerging economies, the still mild recovery in the USA and the on-going crisis in the euro area will probably keep world economic growth subdued at least for the rest of 2013. Current and expected future monetary policy in Japan and, in particular, in the USA have heightened volatility in global bond and stock markets, including those of the euro area, though much less than during the crisis episodes. The process of consolidation of public finance in many euro area countries has become slightly less ambitious but it will continue to weigh on the economy in 2013, though less than in 2012. For this reason and for the lower expected global growth, we have revised downward our GDP forecasts for 2013 from previous reports. Now, we expect GDP to be -0.5 per cent lower in 2013 than in 2012, with considerable risks of an even stronger contraction. In 2014, when fiscal policy might be close to neutral, and if reforms continue to be, by and large, successfully implemented, the euro area economy should start to close its wide output gap with an expected GDP growth of about 1.2%, again subject to downwards risks. Moreover, this will not be sufficient to lower the unemployment rate, which actually could further increase to about 12.5%. The interest rates cut in May 2013 shows the will of the ECB to keep monetary policy expansive, but credit conditions and lending rates remain quite heterogeneous across the member countries. Despite the interest rate cut, euro area inflation is still very likely to remain significantly below the ECB target throughout our forecasting period. Our inflation expectations for 2013 have moderated to a y-o-y rate of 1.5%, and they remain subdued also in 2014, at about 1.4%.
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EFN Report Spring 2013: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2013 and 2014

, 2013
Abstract
In 2013, the expansion of the world economy will be a bit stronger than in 2012. Growth in Asia should be more dynamic than in 2012, and the US economy appears to robustly withstand the restrictive and unstable US fiscal policy, thanks to a very expansionary monetary policy. In spring 2013, the euro crisis is clearly less acute than in 2012. Overall, we forecast euro area GDP to be -0.3 percent lower in 2013 than in 2012, a downward revision from the positive growth of 0.2% we expected in our last report. The situation should improve in 2014, with an expected GDP growth of about 1.3%. However, this will not be sufficient to lower the unemployment rate, which actually could further increase to about 12.6%. Our inflation expectations for 2013 have moderated to a y-o-y rate of 1.6%, and they remain subdued also in 2014, at about 1.4%. The likelihood for the ECB to cut interest rates has moderately increased.
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Is there a Superior Distance Function for Matching in Small Samples?

Eva Dettmann, Claudia Becker, Christian Schmeißer
IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 3, 2010
publiziert in: Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Abstract
The study contributes to the development of ’standards’ for the application of matching algorithms in empirical evaluation studies. The focus is on the first step of the matching procedure, the choice of an appropriate distance function. Supplementary o most former studies, the simulation is strongly based on empirical evaluation ituations. This reality orientation induces the focus on small samples. Furthermore, ariables with different scale levels must be considered explicitly in the matching rocess. The choice of the analysed distance functions is determined by the results of former theoretical studies and recommendations in the empirical literature. Thus, in the simulation, two balancing scores (the propensity score and the index score) and the Mahalanobis distance are considered. Additionally, aggregated statistical distance functions not yet used for empirical evaluation are included. The matching outcomes are compared using non-parametrical scale-specific tests for identical distributions of the characteristics in the treatment and the control groups. The simulation results show that, in small samples, aggregated statistical distance functions are the better choice for summarising similarities in differently scaled variables compared to the commonly used measures.
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The Identification of Regional Industrial Clusters Using Qualitative Input-Output Analysis

Mirko Titze, Matthias Brachert, Alexander Kubis
IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 13, 2008
Abstract
The ‘cluster theory’ has become one of the main concepts promoting regional competitiveness, innovation, and growth. As most studies focus on measures of concentration of one industrial branch in order to identify regional clusters, the appropriate analysis of specific vertical relations within a value-adding chain is developing in this discussion. This paper tries to identify interrelated sectors via national input-output tables with the help of Minimal Flow Analysis by Schnabl (1994). The regionalization of these national industry templates is carried out with the allocation of branch-specific production values on regional employment. As a result, the paper shows concentrations of vertical clusters in only 27 of 439 German NUTS-3 regions.
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Alterung und technologisches Innovationspotential : Eine Linked-Employer-Employee-Analyse

Lutz Schneider
IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 2, 2007
Abstract
Wachstum in modernen Ökonomien ist wesentlich durch das Innovationsverhalten von Firmen bestimmt. Aus demographischer Sicht fragt sich, ob die absehbare Alterung der Arbeitskräfte das Innovationspotential der Ökonomien beeinflusst. Um diese Frage zu beantworten, untersucht der Beitrag auf Basis eines deutschen Linked-Employer- Employee-Datensatzes, ob eine ältere Belegschaft die Fähigkeit eines Betriebes, Produktinnovationen zu generieren, vermindert. Das Vorgehen basiert auf einem Ordered- Logit-Ansatz, wobei das Innovationspotential einer Firma auf deren Altersstruktur regressiert wird. In der Analyse zeigen sich signifikante Alterseffekte. Das geschätzte Alters-Innovations-Profil folgt einem umgekehrt u-förmigen Verlauf, es erreicht sein Maximum bei einem Alter von ca. 40 Jahren. Eine gesonderte Schätzung zeigt darüber hinaus, dass insbesondere das Alter der Ingenieure von Relevanz ist.
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A Glimpse on Sectoral Convergence of Productivity Levels

Gerald Müller
IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 133, 2001
Abstract
This paper examines the presence of sectoral convergence of labor productivity between 14 OECD countries. Using the OECD International Sectoral Data Base (ISDB), the paper looks at the developments within 12 distinct sectors during the period 1970-1995. The change of the coefficients of variance suggests that there is strong sectoral convergence within most service sectors while the evidence of convergence for Manufacturing as well as for Communication is rather weak. These findings are in line with most studies undertaken on this subject so far. It is concluded that economic theories at hand to explain growth and convergence (or divergence respectively) are of different importance for the sectors concerned. While models of the New Growth Theory seemed to be useful to explain growth mechanisms within Manufacturing and Communication, traditional models seemed to apply to most other sectors.
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Spillover Effects and R&D-Cooperations - The Influence of Market Structure

Anita Wölfl
IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 122, 2000
Abstract
This paper examines empirically the role of market structure for the influence of spill-over effects on R&D-cooperations. The results of a microeconometric analysis, based on firm data on innovation, let in general presume that with intensified competition also the influence of spillovers on R&D-cooperation increases. However, competition seems to induce firms to search for effective firm-specific appropriation facilities first. Spillovers that are sufficiently high such that the internalisation effect from R&D-cooperation more than outweighs the competitive effect from research, only arise whenever firms are not able to protect their research results through any appropriation facility. Additionally, there is some evidence that spillover effects may even hinder firms from cooperating in R&D when there is intensive competition on the research stage.
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