Aufschwung in Deutschland festigt sich trotz weltwirtschaftlicher Risiken
Roland Döhrn, Ferdinand Fichtner, Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
Nr. 4,
2017
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich nun schon im fünften Jahr eines moderaten Aufschwungs, der sich 2018 fortsetzen wird. Auch global expandiert die Wirtschaft kräftig. Die gestiegenen politischen Unsicherheiten dämpfen die Weltwirtschaft derzeit offensichtlich kaum. Der wirtschaftspolitische Kurs der neuen US-Regierung birgt sowohl Chancen als auch Risiken für die Konjunktur in den USA und der Welt. Die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose prognostiziert für 2018 eine Inflationsrate von 1,9% für die fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften und rechnet mit einem Kurswechsel der EZB.
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Banking Globalization, Local Lending, and Labor Market Effects: Micro-level Evidence from Brazil
Felix Noth, Matias Ossandon Busch
Abstract
This paper estimates the effect of a foreign funding shock to banks in Brazil after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Our robust results show that bank-specific shocks to Brazilian parent banks negatively affected lending by their individual branches and trigger real economic consequences in Brazilian municipalities: More affected regions face restrictions in aggregated credit and show weaker labor market performance in the aftermath which documents the transmission mechanism of the global financial crisis to local labor markets in emerging countries. The results represent relevant information for regulators concerned with the real effects of cross-border liquidity shocks.
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The Risk‐Taking Channel of Monetary Policy in the U.S.: Evidence from Corporate Loan Data
Manthos D. Delis, Iftekhar Hasan, Nikolaos Mylonidis
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Nr. 1,
2017
Abstract
To study the presence of a risk-taking channel in the U.S., we build a comprehensive data set from the syndicated corporate loan market and measure monetary policy using different measures, most notably Taylor (1993) and Romer and Romer (2004) residuals. We identify a negative relation between monetary policy rates and bank risk-taking, especially in the run up to the 2007 financial crisis. However, this effect is purely supply-side driven only when using Taylor residuals and an ex ante measure of bank risk-taking. Our results highlight the sensitivity of the potency of the risk-taking channel to the measures of monetary policy innovations.
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Deutsche Wirtschaft gut ausgelastet — Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten
Roland Döhrn, Ferdinand Fichtner, Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
Nr. 10,
2016
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich in einem moderaten Aufschwung. Die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2016 prognostiziert, dass das Bruttoinlandsprodukt 2016 um 1,9%, 2017 um 1,4% und 2018 um 1,6% zulegen dürfte. Dabei gehen von der Weltkonjunktur nur geringe stimulierende Effekte aus, zudem dürften sich in den außerordentlich niedrigen Kapitalmarktzinsen nicht nur die derzeitige Geldpolitik, sondern auch niedrige Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln. All dies hemmt die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen. So ist es weiterhin in erster Linie der Konsum, der den Aufschwung trägt.
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Foreign Funding Shocks and the Lending Channel: Do Foreign Banks Adjust Differently?
Felix Noth, Matias Ossandon Busch
Finance Research Letters,
November
2016
Abstract
We document for a set of Latin American emerging countries that the different nature of foreign funding accessed by foreign and local banks affected their lending performance after September 2008. We show that lending growth was weaker for shock-affected foreign banks compared to shock-affected local banks. This evidence represents valuable policy information for regulators concerned with the stability and well-functioning of banking sectors.
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Monetary Policy under the Microscope: Intra-bank Transmission of Asset Purchase Programs of the ECB
L. Cycon, Michael Koetter
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 9,
2015
Abstract
With a unique loan portfolio maintained by a top-20 universal bank in Germany, this study tests whether unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced corporate borrowing costs. We decompose corporate lending rates into refinancing costs, as determined by money markets, and markups that the bank is able to charge its customers in regional markets. This decomposition reveals how banks transmit monetary policy within their organizations. To identify policy effects on loan rate components, we exploit the co-existence of eurozone-wide security purchase programs and regional fiscal policies at the district level. ECB purchase programs reduced refinancing costs significantly, even in an economy not specifically targeted for sovereign debt stress relief, but not loan rates themselves. However, asset purchases mitigated those loan price hikes due to additional credit demand stimulated by regional tax policy and enabled the bank to realize larger economic margins.
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Are there Business Cycles “beyond GDP“? Alternative Measures to GDP at Business Cycle Frequencies
Jörg Döpke, Philip Maschke
Applied Economics Quarterly,
Nr. 2,
2015
Abstract
We discuss properties of alternatives or complements to GDP as a measure of welfare at business cycle frequencies. Our results imply that the suggested indicators show practically no cycle at all and their methodologies can be questioned. First, data are not available at an appropriate quality and frequency. Second, the suggested time series sometimes correlate negatively with each other. Third, cross-section and quasi-panel evidence based on different samples of countries reveals no impact of the stance of the business cycle on some suggested welfare measures. Therefore, alternative welfare measures do not show an equal picture on business cycle frequencies compared to GDP-based measures.
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Spillover Effects among Financial Institutions: A State-dependent Sensitivity Value-at-Risk Approach
Z. Adams, R. Füss, Reint E. Gropp
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Nr. 3,
2014
Abstract
In this paper, we develop a state-dependent sensitivity value-at-risk (SDSVaR) approach that enables us to quantify the direction, size, and duration of risk spillovers among financial institutions as a function of the state of financial markets (tranquil, normal, and volatile). For four sets of major financial institutions (commercial banks, investment banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies) we show that while small during normal times, equivalent shocks lead to considerable spillover effects in volatile market periods. Commercial banks and, especially, hedge funds appear to play a major role in the transmission of shocks to other financial institutions.
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Plant-based Bioeconomy in Central Germany - Mapping of Actors, Industries and Places
Wilfried Ehrenfeld, Frieder Kropfhäußer
Abstract
The challenges facing the 21st century, presented by a growing global population, range from food security to sustainable energy supplies to the diminishing availability of fossil raw materials. An attempt to solve these problems is made by using the concept of bioeconomy. Plants, in particular, possess an important function in this context - they can be used either as a source of food or, in the form of biomass, for industrial or energy purposes. Linking industrial and agricultural research and production, bioeconomy provides growth potential, in particular in rural areas.
The aim of this article is therefore to outline the status of plant-based bioeconomy
in three states of Central Germany - Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia - and to compare this to German plant-based bioeconomy. We take an in-depth look at the different sectors and outline the industries involved, the location and age of the enterprises as well as the distribution of important NACE codes. In conclusion, we highlight the significant number of new or small enterprises and the high research and innovation rate of Central Germany. We also stress the future potential of Central German plant-based bioeconomy as well as the importance of a more plant-focusedview of the technology sector.
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Banks’ Financial Distress, Lending Supply and Consumption Expenditure
H. Evren Damar, Reint E. Gropp, Adi Mordel
Abstract
We employ a unique identification strategy linking survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank-level data to estimate the effects of bank financial distress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures. We show that households whose banks were more exposed to funding shocks report lower levels of non-mortgage liabilities. This, however, does not result in lower levels of consumption. Households compensate by drawing down liquid assets to smooth consumption in the face of a temporary adverse lending supply shock. The results contrast with recent evidence on the real effects of finance on firms’ investment and employment decisions.
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