Impulse Response Analysis in a Misspecified DSGE Model: A Comparison of Full and Limited Information Techniques
Sebastian Giesen, Rolf Scheufele
Applied Economics Letters,
Nr. 3,
2016
Abstract
In this article, we examine the effect of estimation biases – introduced by model misspecification – on the impulse responses analysis for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Thereby, we use full and limited information estimators to estimate a misspecified DSGE model and calculate impulse response functions (IRFs) based on the estimated structural parameters. It turns out that IRFs based on full information techniques can be unreliable under misspecification.
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Does Administrative Status Matter for Urban Growth? Evidence from Present and Former County Capitals in East Germany
Bastian Heider, Albrecht Kauffmann, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Abstract
Public sector activities are often neglected in the economic approaches used to analyze the driving forces behind urban growth. The institutional status of a regional capital is a crucial aspect of public sector activities. This paper reports on a quasi-natural experiment on county towns in East Germany. Since 1990, cities in East Germany have demonstrated remarkable differences in population development. During this same period, many towns have lost their status as a county seat due to several administrative reforms. Using a difference-in-difference approach, the annual population development of former county capitals is compared to population change in towns that have successfully held on to their capital status throughout the observed period. The estimations show that maintaining county capital status has a statistically significant positive effect on annual changes in population. This effect is furthermore increasing over time after the implementation of the respective reforms.
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Much Ado About Nothing: Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields in the OECD
Makram El-Shagi
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 22,
2016
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a new method to assess the impact of sovereign ratings on sovereign bond yields. We estimate the impulse response of the interest rate, following a change in the rating. Since ratings are ordinal and moreover extremely persistent, it proves difficult to estimate those impulse response functions using a VAR modeling ratings, yields and other macroeconomic indicators. However, given the highly stochastic nature of the precise timing of ratings, we can treat most rating adjustments as shocks. We thus no longer rely on a VAR for shock identification, making the estimation of the corresponding IRFs well suited for so called local projections – that is estimating impulse response functions through a series of separate direct forecasts over different horizons. Yet, the rare occurrence of ratings makes impulse response functions estimated through that procedure highly sensitive to individual observations, resulting in implausibly volatile impulse responses. We propose an augmentation to restrict jointly estimated local projections in a way that produces economically plausible impulse response functions.
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Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D? Evidence from US States
Viktor Slavtchev, Simon Wiederhold
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
Nr. 2,
2016
Abstract
Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini. This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation. In a theoretical model, we first show that a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private R&D. Using unique data on federal procurement in US states and performing panel fixed-effects estimations, we find support for the model's prediction of a positive R&D effect of the technological content of government procurement. Instrumental-variable estimations suggest a causal interpretation of our findings.
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Trade Union Membership and Paid Vacation in Germany
Laszlo Goerke, Sabrina Jeworrek, Markus Pannenberg
IZA Journal of Labor Economics,
Nr. 1,
2015
Abstract
In Germany, dependent employees take almost 30 days of paid vacation annually. We enquire whether an individual’s trade union membership affects the duration of vacation. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the period 1985 to 2010 and employing pooled OLS-estimators, we find that being a union member goes along with almost one additional day of vacation per year. Estimations exploiting the panel structure of our data suggest that a smaller part of this vacation differential can be due to the union membership status, while self-selection effects play a more important role.
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Global Food Prices and Business Cycle Dynamics in an Emerging Market Economy
Oliver Holtemöller, Sushanta Mallick
Abstract
This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR model that global food prices influence aggregate prices and food prices in India. To further analyze these empirical results, we specify a small open economy New-Keynesian model including oil and food prices and estimate it using observed data over the period from 1996Q2 to 2013Q2 by applying Bayesian estimation techniques. The results suggest that big part of the variation in inflation in India is due to cost-push shocks and, mainly during the years 2008 and 2010, also to global food price shocks, after having controlled for exogenous rainfall shocks. We conclude that the inflationary supply shocks (cost-push, oil price, domestic food price and global food price shocks) are important contributors to inflation in India. Since the monetary authority responds to these supply shocks with a higher interest rate which tends to slow growth, this raises concerns about how such output losses can be prevented by reducing exposure to commodity price shocks and thereby achieve higher growth.
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Censored Fractional Response Model: Estimating Heterogeneous Relative Risk Aversion of European Households
Qizhou Xiong
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 11,
2015
Abstract
This paper estimates relative risk aversion using the observed shares of risky assets and characteristics of households from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey of the European Central Bank. Given that the risky share is a fractional response variable belonging to [0, 1], this paper proposes a censored fractional response estimation method using extremal quantiles to approximate the censoring thresholds. Considering that participation in risky asset markets is costly, I estimate both the heterogeneous relative risk aversion and participation cost using a working sample that includes both risky asset holders and non-risky asset holders by treating the zero risky share as the result of heterogeneous self-censoring. Estimation results show lower participation costs and higher relative risk aversion than what was previously estimated. The estimated median relative risk aversions of eight European countries range from 4.6 to 13.6. However, the results are sensitive to households’ perception of the risky asset market return and volatility.
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Taking the First Step - What Determines German Laser Source Manufacturers' Entry into Innovation Networks?
Jutta Günther, Muhamed Kudic, Andreas Pyka
International Journal of Innovation Management,
Nr. 5,
2015
Abstract
Early access to technological knowledge embodied in the industry’s innovation network can provide an important competitive advantage to firms. While the literature provides much evidence on the positive effects of innovation networks on firms’ performance, not much is known about the determinants of firms’ initial entry into such networks. We analyze firms’ timing and propensity to enter the industry’s innovation network. More precisely, we seek to shed some light on the factors affecting the duration between firm founding and its first cooperation event. In doing so, we apply a unique longitudinal event history dataset based on the full population of German laser source manufacturers. Innovation network data stem from official databases providing detailed information on the organizations involved, subject of joint research and development (R&D) efforts as well as start and end times for all publically funded R&D projects between 1990 and 2010. Estimation results from a non-parametric event history model indicate that micro firms enter the network later than small-sized or large firms. An in-depth analysis of the size effects for medium-sized firms provides some unexpected findings. The choice of cooperation type makes no significant difference for the firms’ timing to enter the network. Finally, the analysis of geographical determinants shows that cluster membership can, but do not necessarily, affect a firm’s timing to cooperate.
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Stress Testing and Bank Efficiency: Evidence from Europe
Iftekhar Hasan, Fotios Pasiouras
International Journal of Corporate Finance and Accounting,
Nr. 2,
2015
Abstract
This study examines whether and how the stress testing of European banks in 2010, 2011, and 2014 is related to their technical, allocative, and cost efficiency. Using a sample of large commercial banks operating in 20 European countries, and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the authors perform comparisons between banks that were included in one of the three European stress tests and untested banks operating in the same countries. They estimate various specifications as for the inputs and outputs, cross-section and pooled estimations, and they also examine alternative samples as for the ownership of banks. In general, the authors conclude that banks included in the stress-test exercises are more efficient that their counterparties. The differences tend to be statistically significant in the case of allocative efficiency and cost efficiency, but not in the case of technical efficiency. With regards to the latter form of efficiency, the results depend upon the specification and the stress test in question.
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