EU Eastern Enlargement and Structural Change: Specialization Patterns in Accession Countries and Economic Dynamics in the Single Market
Albrecht Kauffmann, P. J. J. Welfens, A. Jungmittag, C. Schumann
Diskussionsbeiträge des Europäischen Instituts für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW), Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Nr. 106,
Nr. 106,
2003
Abstract
Der Beitrag untersucht Kernfragen des Strukturwandels und der Spezialisierungsmuster in den Volkswirtschaften der erweiterten Europäischen Union. In allen Transformationsländern wurden, gemessen an Beschäftigung und Produktivität, Verschiebungen von landwirtschaftlichen und industriellen Sektor hin zum Dienstleistungssektor beobachtet – z.T. mit späteren Reindustrialisierungsphasen. Während einige Ländern, insbesondere Tschechien, Ungarn, die Slowakei, Polen, Estland und Slowenien ihre Produktivität in mittleren technologieintensiven Bereichen verbessert haben und die Technologieleiter aufwärts steigen können, bleiben andere bei einer Struktur mit vielen arbeitsintensiven Zweigen. Im Kontext der EU-Erweiterung sind handelsschaffende Effekte – insbesondere in Verbindung mit einem Anstieg des intra-industriellen Handels – und verstärkte Direktinvestitionen zu erwarten. Alle beteiligten Länder müssen sich gemäß ihren komparativen Vorteilen spezialisieren, allerdings können staatliche F&E-Ausgaben sowie Bildungsanstrengungen auf die Entwicklung solcher Vorteile Einfluss nehmen. Die Gerschenkron-Hypothese postuliert für die Beitrittsländer einen „Vorteil der Rückständigkeit“. Da diese Länder in der ersten Transformationsphase niedrige F&E-Intensitäten in der ersten Transformationsphase aufweisen, ist die Modernisierung des Bildungs- und Forschungssektors wesentlich. Für die EU-15 als Ganzes wird ein Erweiterungsgewinn erwartet, aber die Vorteile werden sich über die Länder hinweg unterschiedlich darstellen, da die ökonomische Geografie eine Rolle spielt. Österreich, Deutschland, die skandinavischen Länder, die Niederlande, Italien und Frankreich werden voraussichtlich stärker von der Erweiterung profitieren als die anderen Mitglieder der EU-15. Deutschland und Österreich spielen zusätzlich eine wichtige Rolle als Ursprungsländer für Direktinvestitionen. Es gibt noch einen erheblichen Forschungsbedarf bezüglich Ausmaß und Richtung des Strukturwandels.
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Bank Concentration and Retail Interest Rates
S. Corvoisier, Reint E. Gropp
Journal of Banking and Finance,
Nr. 11,
2002
Abstract
The recent wave of mergers in the euro area raises the question whether the increase in concentration has offset the increase in competition in European banking through deregulation. We test this question by estimating a simple Cournot model of bank pricing. We construct country and product specific measures of bank concentration and find that for loans and demand deposits increasing concentration may have resulted in less competitive pricing by banks, whereas for savings and time deposits, the model is rejected, suggesting increases in contestability and/or efficiency in these markets. Finally, the paper discusses some implications for tests of the effect of concentration on monetary policy transmission.
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The New EU Countries and Euro Adoption
Hubert Gabrisch, Martina Kämpfe
Intereconomics,
Nr. 3,
2013
Abstract
In the new member states of the EU which have not yet adopted the euro, previous adoption strategies have come under scrutiny. The spillovers and contagion from the global financial crisis revealed a new threat to the countries’ real convergence goal, namely considerable vulnerability to the transmission of financial instability to the real economy. This paper demonstrates the existence of extreme risks for real convergence and argues in favour of a new adoption strategy which does not announce a target date for the currency changeover and which allows for more flexible and countercyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies.
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What Drives Banking Sector Fragility in the Eurozone? Evidence from Stock Market Data
Stefan Eichler, Karol Sobanski
Journal of Common Market Studies,
Nr. 4,
2012
Abstract
This article explores the determinants of banking sector fragility in the eurozone. For this purpose, a stock-market-based banking sector fragility indicator is calculated for eight member countries from 1999 to 2009 using the Merton model (1974). Using a panel framework, it is found that the macroeconomic environment, the structure of the banking sector and the intensity of banking regulation all have an effect on banking sector fragility in the eurozone.
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Do Government Owned Banks Trade Market Power for Slack?
Andreas Hackethal, Michael Koetter, Oliver Vins
Applied Economics,
Nr. 33,
2012
Abstract
The ‘Quiet Life Hypothesis (QLH)’ posits that banks with market power have less incentives to maximize revenues and minimize cost. Especially government owned banks with a public mandate precluding profit maximization might succumb to a quiet life. We use a unified approach that simultaneously measures market power and efficiency to test the quiet life hypothesis of German savings banks. We find that average local market power declined between 1996 and 2006. Cost and profit efficiency remained constant. Nonparametric correlations are consistent with a quiet life regarding cost efficiency but not regarding profit efficiency. The quiet life on the cost side is negatively correlated with bank size, quality of loan portfolio and local per capita income. The last result indicates that the quiet cost life is therefore potentially due to benevolent excess consumption of local input factors by public savings banks.
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Corporate Boards and Bank Loan Contracting
Bill Francis, Iftekhar Hasan, Michael Koetter, Qiang Wu
Journal of Financial Research,
Nr. 4,
2012
Abstract
We investigate the role of corporate boards in bank loan contracting. We find that when corporate boards are more independent, both price and nonprice loan terms (e.g., interest rates, collateral, covenants, and performance-pricing provisions) are more favorable, and syndicated loans comprise more lenders. In addition, board size, audit committee structure, and other board characteristics influence bank loan prices. However, they do not consistently affect all nonprice loan terms except for audit committee independence. Our study provides strong evidence that banks recognize the benefits of board monitoring in mitigating information risk ex ante and controlling agency risk ex post, and they reward higher quality boards with more favorable loan contract terms.
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Is There Monopsonistic Discrimination against Immigrants?
Boris Hirsch, Elke J. Jahn
ILR Review,
Nr. 3,
2015
Abstract
The authors investigate immigrants’ and natives’ labor supply to the firm within an estimation approach based on a dynamic monopsony framework. Applying duration models that account for unobserved worker heterogeneity to a large administrative employer–employee data set for Germany, they find that immigrants supply labor less elastically to firms than do natives. Under monopsonistic wage setting, the estimated elasticity differential predicts a 7.7 log points wage penalty for immigrants thereby accounting for the entire unexplained native–immigrant wage differential of 5.8 to 8.2 log points. When further distinguishing immigrant groups differing in their time spent in the German labor market, their immigration cohort, and their age at entry, the authors find that the observed unexplained wage differential is larger for those groups that show a larger elasticity differential relative to natives. These findings not only suggest that search frictions are a likely cause of employers’ more pronounced monopsony power over their immigrant workers but also imply that employers profit from discriminating against immigrants.
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How Selective Are Real Wage Cuts? A Micro-analysis Using Linked Employer–Employee Data
Boris Hirsch, Thomas Zwick
LABOUR: Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations,
Nr. 4,
2015
Abstract
Using linked employer–employee panel data for Germany, we investigate whether firms implement real wage reductions in a selective manner. In line with insider–outsider and several strands of efficiency wage theory, we find strong evidence for selective wage cuts with high-productivity workers being spared even when controlling for permanent differences in firms' wage policies. In contrast to some recent contributions stressing fairness considerations, we also find that wage cuts increase wage dispersion among peers rather than narrowing it. Notably, the same selectivity pattern shows up when restricting our analysis to firms covered by collective agreements or having a works council.
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Deutsche Konjunktur stabil – Wachstumspotenziale heben: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2015
Externe Monographien,
2015
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich in einem verhaltenen Aufschwung; das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in diesem und im kommenden Jahr um jeweils 1,8 Prozent steigen. Getragen wird die Expansion vom privaten Konsum. Die Investitionen beleben sich allmählich. Angesichts der mäßigen Expansion der Weltwirtschaft dürften die Exporte hingegen nur leicht steigen, zumal die belebende Wirkung der Euro-Abwertung allmählich nachlässt. Die Beschäftigung wird wieder rascher ausgeweitet. Dennoch dürfte die Arbeitslosigkeit im Verlauf des kommenden Jahres leicht steigen, weil die derzeit große Zahl von Asylsuchenden nach und nach am Arbeitsmarkt ankommt. Für die öffentlichen Haushalte in Deutschland zeichnet sich für das kommende Jahr ein Überschuss von 13 Milliarden Euro ab. Dieser dürfte damit deutlich geringer sein als der für 2015 erwartete Überschuss in Höhe von rund 23 Milliarden Euro – nicht zuletzt aufgrund zusätzlicher Ausgaben für die Bewältigung der Flüchtlingsmigration.
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Monetary Policy and the Transaction Role of Money in the US
Alexander Kriwoluzky, Christian A. Stoltenberg
Economic Journal,
Nr. 587,
2015
Abstract
The declining importance of money in transactions can explain the well-known fact that US interest rate policy was passive in the pre-Volcker period and active after 1982. We generalise a standard cashless new Keynesian model (Woodford, 2003) by incorporating an explicit transaction role for money. In the pre-Volcker period, we estimate that money did play an important role and determinacy required a passive interest rate policy. However, after 1982, money no longer played an important role in facilitating transactions. Correspondingly, the conventional view prevails and an active policy ensured equilibrium determinacy.
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