The Euro and Cross-Border Banking: Evidence from Bilateral Data
S. Blank, Claudia M. Buch
Comparative Economic Studies,
Nr. 3,
2007
Abstract
Has the introduction of the Euro fostered financial integration in Europe? We answer this question using a data set of banks’ bilateral foreign assets and liabilities provided by the Bank for International Settlements. The data cover the pre-Euro period (1995–1998) and the post-Euro period (1999–2005). We use information from 10 OECD reporting countries and all OECD recipient countries. Gravity regressions show a positive and significant impact of the Euro on bilateral financial linkages. This effect is stronger and more robust for banks’ foreign assets than for their foreign liabilities.
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The Performance of Short-term Forecasts of the German Economy before and during the 2008/2009 Recession
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
International Journal of Forecasting,
Nr. 2,
2012
Abstract
The paper analyzes the forecasting performance of leading indicators for industrial production in Germany. We focus on single and pooled leading indicator models both before and during the financial crisis. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single indicator models as well as forecast combination methods. In addition, we investigate the stability of forecasting models during the most recent financial crisis.
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Openness and Growth: The Long Shadow of the Berlin Wall
Claudia M. Buch, Farid Toubal
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Nr. 3,
2009
Abstract
The question whether international openness causes higher domestic growth has been subject to intense discussions in the empirical growth literature. This paper addresses the issue in the context of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. We analyze whether the slow convergence in per capita incomes between East and West Germany and the lower international openness of East Germany are linked. We address the endogeneity of openness by adapting the methodology proposed by Frankel and Romer (1999) to a panel framework. We instrument openness with time-invariant exogenous geographic variables and time-varying exogenous policy variables. We also distinguish the impact of different channels of integration. Our paper has three main findings. First, geographic variables have a significant impact on regional openness. Second, controlling for geography, East German states are less integrated into international markets along all dimensions of integration considered. Third, the degree of openness for trade has a positive impact on regional income per capita.
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Gefälle zwischen vergleichbaren Regionen in Ost und West: Ostdeutsche Ballungsräume haben es schwer!
Gerhard Heimpold, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 15,
2002
Abstract
Vor dem Hintergrund der Diskussion über die Neuordnung der Regionalpolitik in Deutschland sowie auf europäischer Ebene untersucht der Beitrag die Ost-West-Entwicklungsunterschiede im wiedervereinigten Deutschland, und zwar differenziert nach verschiedenen Raumtypen. Hinter den pauschalen Ost-West-Unterschieden bei der Wohlfahrt und der hinter ihr stehenden Wohlfahrtsdeterminanten verbergen sich deutliche räumliche Differenzierungen. Speziell die Agglomerationsräume in Ostdeutschland sind, was die Ausstattung mit wichtigen Wohlfahrtsdeterminanten betrifft, im Standortwettbewerb mit ihren westdeutschen Pendants noch nicht hinreichend gerüstet, während bei den verstädterten und ländlichen Räumen die Ost-West-Unterschiede weniger stark ausfallen. Die festgestellten Ausstattungsnachteile der Agglomerationsräume legen eine stärkere Konzentration der Regionalpolitik auf diese Räume nahe, um ihre Attraktivität im überregionalen Standortwettbewerb und damit ihre motorische Funktion beim Aufholprozess Ostdeutschlands zu stärken.
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Is Rated Debt Arm's Length? Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions
Reint E. Gropp, C. Hirsch, Jan Pieter Krahnen
CFS Working Papers, No. 2011/10,
Nr. 10,
2011
Abstract
In this paper we challenge the view that corporate bonds are always arm's length debt. We analyze the effect of bond ratings on the stock price return to acquirers in M&A transactions, which tend to have significant effects on creditor wealth. We find acquirers abnormal returns to be higher if they are unrated, controlling for a wide variety of other effects identified in the literature. Tracing the difference in returns to distinct managerial decisions, we find that, everything else constant, rated firms increase their leverage in takeover transactions by less than their unrated counterparts. Consistent with a significant role for rating agencies, we find monitoring effects to be strongest when acquirer bonds are rated at the borderline between investment grade and junk. Finally, we are able to empirically exclude a large number of alternative explanations for the empirical regularities that we uncover.
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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2008 in East Germany
Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 2,
2008
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2008. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2008 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing and selected services of East Germany.
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Financial constraints and the margins of FDI
Claudia M. Buch
Bundesbank Discussion Paper 29/2009,
2009
Abstract
Recent literature on multinational firms has stressed the importance of low productivity as a barrier to the cross-border expansion of firms. But firms may also need external finance to shoulder the costs of entering foreign markets. We develop a model of multinational firms facing real and financial barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI), and we analyze their impact on the FDI decision (the extensive margin) and foreign affiliate sales (the intensive margin). We provide empirical evidence based on a detailed dataset of German multinationals which contains information on parent-level and affiliate-level financial constraints as well as about the location the foreign affiliates. We find that financial factors constrain firms’ foreign investment decisions, an effect felt in particular by large firms. Financial constraints at the parent level matter for the extensive, but less
so for the intensive margin. For the intensive margin, financial constraints at the affiliate level are relatively more important.
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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2007 in East Germany
Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 3,
2007
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2007. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2007 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing of Croatia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia East Germany.
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Exports Versus FDI Revisited: Does Finance Matter?
Claudia M. Buch
Bundesbank Discussion Paper 03/2010,
2010
Abstract
This paper explores the impact of financial constraints on the internationalization
strategies of firms. It contributes to the literature by focusing on three aspects: First, the paper studies the impact of financial constraints on exporting relative to FDI. Consistent with theory, the empirical results confirm that the impact of financial constraints is stronger for FDI than for exporting. Second, the paper analyzes the extensive and the intensive margins and finds that financial frictions matter for both. Third, the paper explores the impact on manufacturing as compared to service industries and shows that firms in service industries are affected more than firms in manufacturing. The paper also identifies a threshold effect: Financial constraints do not matter for small firms whose productivity seems to be too low to consider international expansions.
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Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility
Reint E. Gropp, Jukka M. Vesala, Giuseppe Vulpes
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Nr. 2,
2006
Abstract
We analyse the ability of the distance to default and subordinated bond spreads to signal bank fragility in a sample of EU banks. We find leading properties for both indicators. The distance to default exhibits lead times of 6-18 months. Spreads have signal value close to problems only. We also find that implicit safety nets weaken the predictive power of spreads. Further, the results suggest complementarity between both indicators. We also examine the interaction of the indicators with other information and find that their additional information content may be small but not insignificant. The results suggest that market indicators reduce type II errors relative to predictions based on accounting information only.
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