Unternehmensinsolvenzen in Deutschland
Steffen Müller
Wirtschaftsdienst,
Nr. 11,
2023
Abstract
Eine Insolvenz ist nur eine von mehreren möglichen Varianten, wie Unternehmen aus dem Markt austreten können. Viele Unternehmen schließen einfach ohne Insolvenz, wieder andere werden übernommen oder fusionieren. Tatsächlich schließen sehr viel mehr Unternehmen ohne Insolvenz, als Unternehmen eine Insolvenz anmelden (Müller und Stegmaier, 2015). Der Hauptunterschied zwischen den Marktaustrittsformen besteht darin, dass ein Marktaustritt ohne Insolvenz nicht immer ein Scheitern des Unternehmens als Ursache hat und oft freiwillig geschieht.1 Der Marktaustritt über den Weg der Insolvenz ist hingegen ein deutlicher Hinweis auf ökonomisches Scheitern. Marktaustritten ohne Insolvenz geht oft eine mehrjährige geordnete Schrumpfungsphase vorweg, während insolvente Unternehmen sich bis zum Schluss gegen den Austritt stemmen (Fackler et al., 2018). Das Interesse an Insolvenzen ergibt sich zum einen daraus, dass sie ein sehr aktueller und gut messbarer Indikator für ökonomisches Scheitern und Arbeitsplatzverluste sind. Zum anderen bergen massenhafte Insolvenzen die Gefahr von Ansteckungseffekten bis hin zu Bankenkrisen.
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Skill Mismatch and the Costs of Job Displacement
Frank Neffke, Ljubica Nedelkoska, Simon Wiederhold
Abstract
Establishment closures have lasting negative consequences for the workers they displace from their jobs. We study how these consequences vary with the amount of skill mismatch that workers experience after job displacement. Developing new measures of occupational skill redundancy and skill shortage, we analyze the work histories of individuals in Germany between 1975 and 2010. We estimate differencein- differences models, using a sample of displaced workers who are matched to statistically similar non-displaced workers. We find that displacements increase the probability of occupational change eleven-fold. Moreover, the magnitude of postdisplacement earnings losses strongly depends on the type of skill mismatch that workers experience in such job switches. Whereas skill shortages are associated with relatively quick returns to the counterfactual earnings trajectories that displaced workers would have experienced absent displacement, skill redundancy sets displaced workers on paths with permanently lower earnings. We show that these differences can be attributed to differences in mismatch after displacement, and not to intrinsic differences between workers making different post-displacement career choices.
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Skill Mismatch and the Costs of Job Displacement
Frank Neffke, Ljubica Nedelkoska, Simon Wiederhold
Research Policy,
Nr. 2,
2024
Abstract
Establishment closures have lasting negative consequences for the workers displaced from their jobs. We study how these consequences vary with the amount of skill mismatch that workers experience after job displacement. Developing new measures of occupational skill redundancy and skill shortage, we analyze the work histories of individuals in Germany between 1975 and 2010. We estimate difference-in-differences models, using a sample of displaced workers who are matched to statistically similar non-displaced workers. We find that displacements increase the probability of occupation change eleven-fold. Moreover, the magnitude of post-displacement earnings losses strongly depends on the type of skill mismatch that workers experience in such job switches. Whereas skill shortages are associated with relatively quick returns to the earnings trajectories that displaced workers would have experienced absent displacement, skill redundancy sets displaced workers on paths with permanently lower earnings. We show that these differences can be attributed to differences in mismatch after displacement, and not to intrinsic differences between workers making different post-displacement career choices.
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Financial Technologies and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission
Iftekhar Hasan, Boreum Kwak, Xiang Li
Abstract
This study investigates whether and how financial technologies (FinTech) influence the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. We use an interacted panel vector autoregression model to explore how the effects of monetary policy shocks change with regional-level FinTech adoption. Results indicate that FinTech adoption generally mitigates the transmission of monetary policy to real GDP, consumer prices, bank loans, and housing prices, with the most significant impact observed in the weakened transmission to bank loan growth. The relaxed financial constraints, regulatory arbitrage, and intensified competition are the possible mechanisms underlying the mitigated transmission.
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Financial Technologies and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission
Iftekhar Hasan, Boreum Kwak, Xiang Li
European Economic Review,
January
2024
Abstract
This study investigates whether and how financial technologies (FinTech) influence the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. We use an interacted panel vector autoregression model to explore how the effects of monetary policy shocks change with regional-level FinTech adoption. Results indicate that FinTech adoption generally mitigates the transmission of monetary policy to real GDP, consumer prices, bank loans, and housing prices, with the most significant impact observed in the weakened transmission to bank loan growth. The relaxed financial constraints, regulatory arbitrage, and intensified competition are the possible mechanisms underlying the mitigated transmission.
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FDI and Corporate Tax Revenue: Tax Harmonization or Competition?
Reint E. Gropp, Kristina Kostial
Finance & Development,
Nr. 2,
2001
Abstract
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Income Shocks, Political Support and Voting Behaviour
Richard Upward, Peter Wright
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 1,
2024
Abstract
We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on households before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent, long-lasting but quantitatively small effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and short-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself.
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Die große Kluft
Reint E. Gropp, Cornelia Lang
Thomas Mirow (Hg.) Kraftakt: Warum wir uns neu bewähren müssen. Berichte zur Lage der Nation 2023,
November
2023
Abstract
Deutschland steht mitten in einem radikalen Umbruch. Neue Fundamente für nachhaltigen Wohlstand und sozialen Frieden zu schaffen, wird uns große Anstrengungen abverlangen. Egal ob Bildung, Technologie oder Wirtschaft: Wir können die epochalen Herausforderungen unserer Zeit nur bewältigen, wenn wir gemeinsam, offen und ehrlich bestimmen, wie wir uns eine gute Zukunft für Deutschland vorstellen – und was wir zu investieren bereit sind. Wer wollen wir in einer Welt von morgen sein? Wofür soll Deutschland in Zukunft stehen?
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Exposure to Conflict, Migrations and Long-run Education and Income Inequality: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina
Adnan Efendic, Dejan Kovač, Jacob N. Shapiro
Defence and Peace Economics,
Nr. 8,
2023
Abstract
We investigate the long-term relationship between conflict-related migration and individual socioeconomic inequality. Looking at the post-conflict environment of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), a former Yugoslav state most heavily impacted by the wars of the early 1990s, the paper focuses on differences in educational performance and income between four groups: migrants, internally displaced persons, former external migrants, and those who did not move. The analysis leverages a municipality-representative survey (n ≈ 6,000) that captured self-reported education and income outcomes as well as migration histories. We find that individuals with greater exposure to conflict had systematically worse educational performance and lower earnings two decades after the war. Former external migrants now living in BiH have better educational and economic outcomes than those who did not migrate, but these advantages are smaller for external migrants who were forced to move. We recommend that policies intended to address migration-related discrepancies should be targeted on the basis of individual and family experiences caused by conflict.
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Does IFRS Information on Tax Loss Carryforwards and Negative Performance Improve Predictions of Earnings and Cash Flows?
Sandra Dreher, Sebastian Eichfelder, Felix Noth
Journal of Business Economics,
January
2024
Abstract
We analyze the usefulness of accounting information on tax loss carryforwards and negative performance to predict earnings and cash flows. We use hand-collected information on tax loss carryforwards and corresponding deferred taxes from the International Financial Reporting Standards tax footnotes for listed firms from Germany. Our out-of-sample tests show that considering accounting information on tax loss carryforwards does not enhance performance forecasts and typically even worsens predictions. The most likely explanation is model overfitting. Besides, common forecasting approaches that deal with negative performance are prone to prediction errors. We provide a simple empirical specification to account for that problem.
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