Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators
Katja Drechsel, Sebastian Giesen, Axel Lindner
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 4,
2014
Abstract
This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.
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The TRIO Level 1.5 Algorithm for BC-GAUHESEQ Regression
Ulrich Blum, Marcel Dagenais, Marc Gaudry, Tran Liem
Structural Road Accident Models: The International DRAG Family,
2001
Abstract
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The SNUS 2.5 Model for Germany
Ulrich Blum, Marc Gaudry
Structural Road Accident Models: The International DRAG Family,
2001
Abstract
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Turning Box-Cox Including Quadratic Forms in Regression
Ulrich Blum, Marc Gaudry
Structural Road Accident Models: The International DRAG Family,
2001
Abstract
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Africa and the Global Financial Crisis - Impact on Economic Reform Processes
R. Adelou Alabi, J. Alemazung, Achim Gutowski, Robert Kappel, Tobias Knedlik, O. Osnachi Uzor, Karl Wohlmuth, Hans H. Bass
African Development Perspectives Yearbook, Vol. 15,
2011
Abstract
In volume XV of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook, the Research Group on African Development Perspectives investigates the impact of the GFC on economic reform processes in Africa. The analysis is structured in such a way so as to reflect the opportunities and dangers of policy reversals in the face of the GFC. The impact of the crisis on different types and forms of governance in the region is considered. The first question is therefore which macro-economic policy instruments have to be applied in order to overcome the crisis and to continue with sustainable development. The second question is how the GFC has affected Africa's external economic relations and if the path of opening up to the world markets is continued. The third question raised is how the crisis has affected social cohesion, impacted on poverty alleviation strategies and the achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). All these questions are discussed in the various contributions which comprise general studies and country case studies. The authors also looked into the role of international financial institutions during and after the crisis. The volume XV of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook is structured into three Units. Unit 1 addresses general issues regarding the impact of the GFC on reform processes in Africa. Unit 2 presents case studies from countries and sub-regions. Unit 3 presents reviews and book notes of current literature focusing on issues of African development perspectives.
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Stabilisierungspolitik in post-sozialistischen Ländern: eine Synopse aus empirischer und theoretischer Sicht
Hubert Gabrisch
Externe Publikationen,
1994
Abstract
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Kapitalbedarf und Kapitaltransfer: Der Fall Osteuropa
Hubert Gabrisch
Externe Publikationen,
1994
Abstract
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Alternative Fiscal Policies during Transition
Kazimierz Laski, Hubert Gabrisch
Externe Publikationen,
1994
Abstract
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Modelle zur Konjunkturbereinigung und deren Auswirkungen
Oliver Holtemöller, , Katja Drechsel, Sabine Freye, Götz Zeddies
IWH Online,
Nr. 2,
2014
Abstract
Seit dem Jahr 2009 enthält das deutsche Grundgesetz eine neue Schuldenregel („Schuldenbremse“), nach der die Länder ab dem Jahr 2020 strukturell ausgeglichene Haushalte vorweisen müssen. Die Einhaltung der Schuldenbremse wird für Bund und Länder vom Stabilitätsrat überwacht. Um zu beurteilen, ob der Haushalt strukturell ausgeglichen ist, wird der öffentliche Finanzierungssaldo um konjunkturelle Einflüsse bereinigt. Dazu wird eine Konjunkturkomponente identifiziert, welche die konjunkturbedingten Mehr- oder Mindereinnahmen und -ausgaben ausweist. Die Differenz zwischen tatsächlichem Finanzierungssaldo und Konjunkturkomponente ergibt den für die Schuldenbremse maßgeblichen strukturellen Finanzierungssaldo.
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Relative Deprivation and Migration Preferences
Walter Hyll, Lutz Schneider
Economics Letters,
Nr. 2,
2014
Abstract
In this letter, we overcome the existing shortages with respect to the assignment of individuals to reference groups and are the first to show that individual aversion to relative deprivation plays a decisive role in shaping migration preferences.
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