Kommentar: Manövriert sich die EZB in eine Falle?
Reint E. Gropp
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 1,
2015
Abstract
Die EZB hat am 22. Januar 2015 beschlossen, in großem Umfang Anleihen öffentlicher Institutionen aus dem Euroraum, darunter auch der Nationalstaaten, zu kaufen. Es gibt gute Gründe für diese Maßnahme: Marktbasierte mittelfristige Inflationserwartungen sind zuletzt deutlich gesunken, die Inflationsrate ist tendenziell rückläufig und war zuletzt sogar negativ. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer deflationären Spirale hat sich erhöht, mit unabsehbaren Folgen für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. Die schwache Verbraucherpreisentwicklung im Euroraum basiert auf mehreren Faktoren: der schleppenden Konjunkturentwicklung, fallenden Ölpreisen und fiskalpolitischer Konsolidierung in einigen Euroländern (Spanien, Portugal, Irland).
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Has Labor Income Become More Volatile? Evidence from International Industry-Level Data
Claudia M. Buch
German Economic Review,
Nr. 4,
2013
Abstract
Changes in labor market institutions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This article documents and analyzes changes in income volatility using data for 11 industrialized countries, 22 industries and 35 years (1970–2004). The article has four main findings. First, the unconditional volatility of labor income has declined in parallel to the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Second, the industry-specific, idiosyncratic component of labor income volatility has hardly changed. Third, cross-sectional heterogeneity is substantial. If anything, the labor incomes of high- and low-skilled workers have become more volatile relative to the volatility of capital incomes. Fourth, the volatility of labor income relative to the volatility of capital income declines in the labor share. Trade openness has no clear-cut impact.
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Banking Market Competition, Opaque Firms, and the Reallocation Component of Aggregate Growth
R. Inklaar, Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
Abstract
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Fiscal Spending Multiplier Calculations Based on Input-Output Tables? An Application to EU Member States
Toralf Pusch
Intervention. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies,
Nr. 1,
2012
Abstract
Fiscal spending multiplier calculations have attracted considerable attention in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Much of the current literature is based on VAR estimation methods and DSGE models. In line with the Keynesian literature we argue that many of these models probably underestimate the fiscal spending multiplier in recessions. The income-expenditure model of the fiscal spending multiplier can be seen as a good approximation under these circumstances. In its conventional form this model suffers from an underestimation of the multiplier due to an overestimation of the import intake of domestic absorption. In this article we apply input-output calculus to solve this problem. Multipliers thus derived are comparably high, ranging between 1.4 and 1.8 for many member states of the European Union. GDP drops due to budget consolidation might therefore be substantial in times of crisis.
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Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft überwindet die kurze Schwächephase
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 3,
2012
Abstract
Die Risiken, die von der Schulden- und Vertrauenskrise in Europa ausgehen und die deutsche Wirtschaft belasten, haben zuletzt etwas nachgelassen; die Aussichten für die deutsche Konjunktur haben sich verbessert. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in Deutschland nach der Schwächephase im Winterhalbjahr 2011/2012 im Jahr 2012 um 1,3% und im Jahr 2013 um 2,2% zunehmen; die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte weiter sinken – auf 6,4% im Jahr 2012 und auf 6,1% im Jahr 2013. Diese Entwicklung führt – trotz nachlassender Konsolidierungsbemühungen – zu einem raschen Abbau der öffentlichen Neuverschuldung.
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The Performance of Short-term Forecasts of the German Economy before and during the 2008/2009 Recession
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
International Journal of Forecasting,
Nr. 2,
2012
Abstract
The paper analyzes the forecasting performance of leading indicators for industrial production in Germany. We focus on single and pooled leading indicator models both before and during the financial crisis. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single indicator models as well as forecast combination methods. In addition, we investigate the stability of forecasting models during the most recent financial crisis.
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Fiscal Spending Multiplier Calculations based on Input-Output Tables – with an Application to EU Members
Toralf Pusch, A. Rannberg
Abstract
Fiscal spending multiplier calculations have been revived in the aftermath of the
global financial crisis. Much of the current literature is based on VAR estimation
methods and DSGE models. The aim of this paper is not a further deepening of
this literature but rather to implement a calculation method of multipliers which is
suitable for open economies like EU member states. To this end, Input-Output tables are used as by this means the import intake of domestic demand components can be isolated in order to get an appropriate base for the calculation of the relevant import quotas. The difference of this method is substantial – on average the calculated multipliers are 15% higher than the conventional GDP fiscal spending multiplier for EU members. Multipliers for specific spending categories are comparably high, ranging between 1.4 and 1.8 for many members of the EU. GDP drops due to budget consolidation might therefore be substantial if monetary policy is not able to react in an expansionary manner.
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Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
The paper analyzes leading indicators for GDP and industrial production in Germany. We focus on the performance of single and pooled leading indicators during the pre-crisis and crisis period using various weighting schemes. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single indicator as well as forecast combination methods. In addition, we use an end-of-sample instability test to investigate the stability of forecasting models during the recent financial crisis. We find in general that only a small number of single indicator models were performing well before the crisis. Pooling can substantially increase the reliability of leading indicator forecasts. During the crisis the relative performance of many leading indicator models increased. At short horizons, survey indicators perform best, while at longer horizons financial indicators, such as term spreads and risk spreads, improve relative to the benchmark.
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A Dynamic Approach to Interest Rate Convergence in Selected Euro-candidate Countries
Hubert Gabrisch, Lucjan T. Orlowski
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 10,
2009
Abstract
We advocate a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we empirically test volatility dynamics of the ten-year sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields during the January 2, 2001 untill January 22, 2009 sample period. Our results show a varied degree of bond yield co-movements, the most pronounced for the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland, and weaker for Hungary and Slovakia. However, since the EU accession, we find some divergence of relative bond yields. We argue that a ‘static’ specification of the Maastricht criterion for long-term bond yields is not fully conducive for advancing stability of financial systems in the euro-candidate countries.
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The Great Risk Shift? Income Volatility in an International Perspective
Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 2465,
2008
Abstract
Weakening bargaining power of unions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This paper documents and explains changes in income volatility. Using a theoretical framework which builds distribution risk into a real business cycle model, hypotheses on the determinants of the relative volatility of capital and labor are derived. The model is tested using industry-level data. The data cover 11 industrialized countries, 22 manufacturing and services industries, and a maximum of 35 years. The paper has four main findings. First, the unconditional volatility of labor and capital incomes has declined, reflecting the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Second, the idiosyncratic component of income volatility has hardly changed over time. Third, crosssectional heterogeneity in the evolution of relative income volatilities is substantial. If anything, the labor incomes of high- and low-skilled workers have become more volatile in relative terms. Fourth, income volatility is related to variables measuring the bargaining power of workers. Trade openness has no significant impact.
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