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A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations

Yusuf Mercan, Benjamin Schoefer, Petr Sedláček
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Nr. 1, 2024
Abstract
We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations in which newhires and incumbentworkers are imperfect substitutes. Hence, attempts to hire away the unemployed during recessions diminish the marginal product of new hires, discouraging job creation. This single feature achieves a ten-fold increase in the volatility of hiring in an otherwise standard search model, produces a realistic Beveridge curve despite countercyclical separations, and explains 30–40% of U.S. unemployment fluctuations. Additionally, it explains the excess procyclicality of new hires’ wages, the cyclical labor wedge, countercyclical earnings losses from job displacement, and the limited steady-state effects of unemployment insurance. 
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Financial Technologies and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission

Iftekhar Hasan, Boreum Kwak, Xiang Li
European Economic Review, January 2024
Abstract
This study investigates whether and how financial technologies (FinTech) influence the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. We use an interacted panel vector autoregression model to explore how the effects of monetary policy shocks change with regional-level FinTech adoption. Results indicate that FinTech adoption generally mitigates the transmission of monetary policy to real GDP, consumer prices, bank loans, and housing prices, with the most significant impact observed in the weakened transmission to bank loan growth. The relaxed financial constraints, regulatory arbitrage, and intensified competition are the possible mechanisms underlying the mitigated transmission.
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Does IFRS Information on Tax Loss Carryforwards and Negative Performance Improve Predictions of Earnings and Cash Flows?

Sandra Dreher, Sebastian Eichfelder, Felix Noth
Journal of Business Economics, January 2024
Abstract
We analyze the usefulness of accounting information on tax loss carryforwards and negative performance to predict earnings and cash flows. We use hand-collected information on tax loss carryforwards and corresponding deferred taxes from the International Financial Reporting Standards tax footnotes for listed firms from Germany. Our out-of-sample tests show that considering accounting information on tax loss carryforwards does not enhance performance forecasts and typically even worsens predictions. The most likely explanation is model overfitting. Besides, common forecasting approaches that deal with negative performance are prone to prediction errors. We provide a simple empirical specification to account for that problem.
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Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Migration in the First Globalisation

Richard Bräuer, Felix Kersting
Economic Journal, Nr. 657, 2024
Abstract
This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture—the grain invasion from the Americas—in Prussia during the first globalisation (1870–913). We show that this shock led to a decline in the employment rate and overall income. However, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation, which we explain by a strong migration response. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine them with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian and United States trade data to isolate exogenous variation.
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Labor Market Power and Between-Firm Wage (In)Equality

Matthias Mertens
International Journal of Industrial Organization, December 2023
Abstract

I study how labor market power affects firm wage differences using German manufacturing sector firm-level data (1995-2016). In past decades, labor market power increasingly moderated rising between-firm wage differences. This is because high-paying firms possess high and increasing labor market power and pay wages below competitive levels, whereas low-wage firms pay competitive or even above competitive wages. Over time, large, high-wage, high-productivity firms generate increasingly large labor market rents while charging comparably low product markups. This provides novel insights on why such top firms are profitable and successful. Using micro-aggregated data covering most economic sectors, I validate key results for multiple European countries.

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Microdata for Economic Research in Europe: Challenges and Proposals

Eric Bartelsman, Marco Matani, Filippo di Mauro, Sergio Inferrera, Ugo Panizza, Michael Polder
CEPR, Nr. 18640, 2023
Abstract
While access to high-quality microdata is essential for economic research and policy evaluation, effective access to such data remains limited in Europe. It varies from country to country, with uneven information on access procedures. This is a major obstacle to social science research, including research on European competitiveness and the effects of climate change, inequality, globalization, and digitalization. The objective of this paper, which is based on a brainstorming exercise coordinated by CEPR and CompNet, is to assess the status quo and discuss a series of proposals for improving access to Microdata for economic research. We underline the need for developing the relevant tools for extended access to and use of European business statistics microdata. Building such tools entails both establishing the requested microdata and creating a body facilitating cross-country access to the established databases with harmonized content.
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Die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose. Wirtschaftspolitischer Hintergrund, Methoden und Prognosegüte

Oliver Holtemöller
WiSt - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, Nr. 9, 2023
Abstract
In diesem Beitrag wird die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose (GD) der führenden deutschen Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute vorgestellt. Die GD stellt eine Referenz für die den Steuerschätzungen zugrundeliegenden makroökonomischen Projektionen der Bundesregierung dar, und sie informiert wirtschaftspolitische Entscheidungsträger, Medien und die breite Öffentlichkeit über wichtige ökonomische Entwicklungen. Die Gutachten erscheinen jeweils im Frühjahr und im Herbst.
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Unternehmensinsolvenzen in Deutschland

Steffen Müller
Wirtschaftsdienst, Nr. 11, 2023
Abstract
Eine Insolvenz ist nur eine von mehreren möglichen Varianten, wie Unternehmen aus dem Markt austreten können. Viele Unternehmen schließen einfach ohne Insolvenz, wieder andere werden übernommen oder fusionieren. Tatsächlich schließen sehr viel mehr Unternehmen ohne Insolvenz, als Unternehmen eine Insolvenz anmelden (Müller und Stegmaier, 2015). Der Hauptunterschied zwischen den Marktaustrittsformen besteht darin, dass ein Marktaustritt ohne Insolvenz nicht immer ein Scheitern des Unternehmens als Ursache hat und oft freiwillig geschieht.1 Der Marktaustritt über den Weg der Insolvenz ist hingegen ein deutlicher Hinweis auf ökonomisches Scheitern. Marktaustritten ohne Insolvenz geht oft eine mehrjährige geordnete Schrumpfungsphase vorweg, während insolvente Unternehmen sich bis zum Schluss gegen den Austritt stemmen (Fackler et al., 2018). Das Interesse an Insolvenzen ergibt sich zum einen daraus, dass sie ein sehr aktueller und gut messbarer Indikator für ökonomisches Scheitern und Arbeitsplatzverluste sind. Zum anderen bergen massenhafte Insolvenzen die Gefahr von Ansteckungseffekten bis hin zu Bankenkrisen.
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Die große Kluft

Reint E. Gropp, Cornelia Lang
Thomas Mirow (Hg.) Kraftakt: Warum wir uns neu bewähren müssen. Berichte zur Lage der Nation 2023, November 2023
Abstract
Deutschland steht mitten in einem radikalen Umbruch. Neue Fundamente für nachhaltigen Wohlstand und sozialen Frieden zu schaffen, wird uns große Anstrengungen abverlangen. Egal ob Bildung, Technologie oder Wirtschaft: Wir können die epochalen Herausforderungen unserer Zeit nur bewältigen, wenn wir gemeinsam, offen und ehrlich bestimmen, wie wir uns eine gute Zukunft für Deutschland vorstellen – und was wir zu investieren bereit sind. Wer wollen wir in einer Welt von morgen sein? Wofür soll Deutschland in Zukunft stehen?
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Conditional Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts: Revisions and Errors

Alexander Glas, Katja Heinisch
Journal of International Money and Finance, November 2023
Abstract
Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters and ECB/Eurosystem staff projections, we analyze the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment are related to beliefs about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. While oil price and exchange rate predictions are updated more frequently than macroeconomic forecasts, the opposite is true for interest rate and wage growth expectations. Beliefs about future inflation are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are related to predictions of output growth and unemployment. Exchange rate predictions also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than the other variables. With regard to forecast errors, wage growth and GDP growth closely comove, but only during the period when interest rates are at the effective zero lower bound.
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