Determinanten des intersektoralen ökologischen Strukturwandels
Jens Horbach
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 1,
2002
Abstract
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Consumption and Income in the Euro Area: Empirical Evidence Based on Panel Cointegration Methods
Christian Dreger, Hans-Eggert Reimers
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 1,
2005
Abstract
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Constructing and Applying Objective Functions in Macroeconometric Models
Klaus Weyerstraß
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 4,
2004
Abstract
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Comment on Daniel Radowski and Werner Smolny
Olaf Fuchs
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 2,
2002
Abstract
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Beschäftigungswirkungen der umweltgerechten Entsorgung von Siedlungsabfällen
Steffen Hentrich
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 1,
2002
Abstract
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Beschäftigung und Umweltschutz in Ostdeutschland
Walter Komar
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 1,
2002
Abstract
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Are there Free Lunches in East Germany?
Ulrich Blum
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 1,
2009
Abstract
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Aggregation of National Data and Stability of Euro Area Money Demand
Oliver Holtemöller
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 4,
2004
Abstract
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Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?
Makram El-Shagi
North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Nr. 3,
2011
Abstract
The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts based on a number of forecasting techniques from the literature using a panel of ten industrialized countries during the period of 1988 to 2007. To capture expected inflation, we develop a recursive filtering algorithm which extracts unexpected inflation from real interest rate data, even in the presence of diverse risks and a potential Mundell-Tobin-effect.
The extracted unexpected inflation is compared to the forecasting errors of ten
econometric forecasts. Beside the standard AR(p) and ARMA(1,1) models, which
are known to perform best on average, we also employ several Phillips curve based approaches, VAR, dynamic factor models and two simple model avering approaches.
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The Impact of Fixed Exchange Rates on Fiscal Discipline
Makram El-Shagi
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,
Nr. 5,
2011
Abstract
In this paper, it is shown that, contrary to standard arguments, fiscal discipline is not substantially enhanced by a fixed exchange rate regime. This study is based on data from 116 countries collected from 1975 to 2004 and uses various estimation techniques for dynamic panel data, in particular a GMM estimation in the tradition Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). Contrary to previous papers on this topic, the present paper takes into account that the consequences of a new exchange rate regime do not necessarily fully manifest immediately.
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