Industrial Relations: Worker Codetermination and Collective Wage Bargaining
Steffen Müller, Claus Schnabel
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik,
Nr. 1,
2019
Abstract
Trade unions and employers’ associations, collective bargaining, and employee representation at the workplace are the cornerstones of industrial relations systems in many developed countries. Germany stands out as a country with powerful works councils and a high coverage rate of collective bargaining agreements, supported by encompassing interest groups of employees and employers and by the state. The German case and the perceived stability of its industrial relations regime have attracted considerable attention among researchers and politicians, which also has to do with the country’s high productivity, comparably few strikes, and relatively minor employment problems. However, in recent years industrial relations in many countries including Germany have come under pressure and the fact that there is no obvious and clearly superior alternative to the current regime of industrial and labour relations may not be sufficient to guarantee the survival of the present system.
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The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields
Makram El-Shagi, Gregor von Schweinitz
Journal of Banking and Finance,
2018
Abstract
Can a negative shock to sovereign ratings invoke a vicious cycle of increasing government bond yields and further downgrades, ultimately pushing a country toward default? The narratives of public and political discussions, as well as of some widely cited papers, suggest this possibility. In this paper, we will investigate the possible existence of such a vicious cycle. We find no evidence of a bad long-run equilibrium and cannot confirm a feedback loop leading into default as a transitory state for all but the very worst ratings. We use a bivariate semiparametric dynamic panel model to reproduce the joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields. The individual equations resemble Pesaran-type cointegration models, which allow for valid interference regardless of whether the employed variables display unit-root behavior. To incorporate most of the empirical features previously documented (separately) in the literature, we allow for different long-run relationships in both equations, nonlinearities in the level effects of ratings, and asymmetric effects in changes of ratings and yields. Our finding of a single good equilibrium implies the slow convergence of ratings and yields toward this equilibrium. However, the persistence of ratings is sufficiently high that a rating shock can have substantial costs if it occurs at a highly speculative rating or lower. Rating shocks that drive the rating below this threshold can increase the interest rate sharply, and for a long time. Yet, simulation studies based on our estimations show that it is highly improbable that rating agencies can be made responsible for the most dramatic spikes in interest rates.
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Crises and Rescues: Liquidity Transmission Through Global Banks
Michael Koetter, Claudia M. Buch, C. T. Koch
International Journal of Central Banking,
Nr. 4,
2018
Abstract
This paper shows that global banks transmit liquidity shocks via their network of foreign affiliates. We use the (unexpected) access of German banks' affiliates located in the United States to the Federal Reserve's Term Auction Facility. We condition on the parent banks' U.S. dollar funding needs in order to examine how affiliates located outside the United States adjusted their balance sheets when the U.S. affiliate of the same parent tapped into TAF liquidity. Our research has three main findings. First, affiliates tied to parents with higher U.S. dollar funding needs expanded their foreign assets during periods of active TAF borrowing. Second, the overall effects are driven by affiliates located in financial centers. Third, U.S.- dollar-denominated lending particularly increased in response to the TAF program.
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Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns im Handwerk in Sachsen-Anhalt
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Birgit Schultz
Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik,
Nr. 2,
2018
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of the minimum wage introduction in Germany in 2015 on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt.
Using novel survey data on the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt, we examine three questions: (1) How many employees are affected by the minimum wage introduction in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt? (2) What are the effects of the minimum wage introduction? (3) How did firms react to wage increase?
We find that about 8 % of all employees in the skilled crafts sector in Saxony-Anhalt are directly affected by the minimum wage introduction. A difference-in-difference estimation reveals no significant employment effects of the minimum wage introduction. We test for alternative adjustment strategies and observe a significant increase of output prices.
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Central Bank Transparency and the Volatility of Exchange Rates
Stefan Eichler, Helge Littke
Journal of International Money and Finance,
2018
Abstract
We analyze the effect of monetary policy transparency on bilateral exchange rate volatility. We test the theoretical predictions of a stylized model using panel data for 62 currencies from 1998 to 2010. We find strong evidence that an increase in the availability of information about monetary policy objectives decreases exchange rate volatility. Using interaction models, we find that this effect is more pronounced for countries with a lower flexibility of goods prices, a lower level of central bank conservatism, and a higher interest rate sensitivity of money demand.
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Market Power and Risk: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Market
Carola Müller, Felix Noth
Economics Letters,
2018
Abstract
We use mortgage loan application data of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) to shed light on the role of banks’ market power on their presumably insufficient risk screening activities in the U.S. mortgage market in the pre-crisis era. We find that banks with higher market power protect their charter value. The effect is stronger for banks that have more information about local markets.
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What Do We Learn from Schumpeterian Growth Theory?
Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Peter Howitt
P. Aghion, S. N. Durlauf (Hrsg.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Band 2B, Amsterdam: North Holland,
2014
Abstract
Schumpeterian growth theory has operationalized Schumpeter’s notion of creative destruction by developing models based on this concept. These models shed light on several aspects of the growth process that could not be properly addressed by alternative theories. In this survey, we focus on four important aspects, namely: (i) the role of competition and market structure; (ii) firm dynamics; (iii) the relationship between growth and development with the notion of appropriate growth institutions; and (iv) the emergence and impact of long-term technological waves. In each case, Schumpeterian growth theory delivers predictions that distinguish it from other growth models and which can be tested using micro data.
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IWH-Bauumfrage im Juni 2006: Ostdeutsches Baugewerbe im Juni 2006: Stimmung anhaltend gut
Brigitte Loose
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 7,
2006
Abstract
Das Geschäftsklima wird im Juni laut Umfrage des IWH unter 300 ostdeutschen Bauunternehmen günstiger beurteilt als in der vorangegangenen Befragung im April. Aber auch gegenüber dem Vorjahr ergibt sich ein deutlich verbessertes Bild. Mit drei Vierteln positiver Stimmen sowohl bei der Geschäftslage als auch bei den Geschäftsaussichten wird eine Situation angezeigt, die es in den letzten zehn Jahren nicht gab. Maßgeblich sind zum einen immer noch Nachholeffekte nach dem sehr langanhaltenden Winter. Zum anderen überdecken zur Zeit Sonderfaktoren die an sich abwärtsgerichtete Tendenz auf dem ostdeutschen Baumarkt.
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Aktuelle Trends: Jeder zweite Zusatzjob wird im Osten angeboten
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 7,
2006
Abstract
Dem Mangel an Beschäftigungsmöglichkeiten für Arbeitslose in Ostdeutschland begegnet die Bundesagentur für Arbeit mit einem überproportional hohen Angebot an Arbeitsgelegenheiten. Fast die Hälfe der im Juni 2006 in Deutschland angebotenen ca. 280 000 Arbeitsgelegenheiten stehen in Ostdeutschland zur Verfügung. Etwa 95% der Arbeitsgelegenheiten werden dabei in der sogenannten Mehraufwandsvariante (Zusatz- bzw. Ein-Euro-Jobs) bereitgestellt. Bei ca. 5% handelt es sich um die sogenannte Entgeltvariante, bei der ein sozialversicherungspflichtiges Beschäftigungsverhältnis begründet wird und bei der Hilfebedürftige an Stelle des Arbeitslosengeldes II das übliche Arbeitsentgelt erhalten. Je 100 Arbeitslose im Rechtskreis des SGB II wurden im Jahr 2005 in Ostdeutschland 15,9 und in Westdeutschland 8,6 Arbeitsgelegenheiten der Mehraufwands- und der Entgeltvariante gefördert.
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Editorial
Hubert Gabrisch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 7,
2006
Abstract
Herr Trichet hat die Europäer auf Zinserhöhungen ab Anfang August eingestellt. Die Ankündigung weiterer Zinsanhebungen wird mit den gestiegenen Inflationsrisiken im Euro-Raum begründet. Die Furcht vor einer höheren Inflation haben die Zentralbanker ausschließlich aus der monetären Analyse gewonnen, d. h. aus der Betrachtung der Geldmengen- und Kreditentwicklung im Euro-Raum. Sie wird quantitativ mit einem Modell unterlegt, welches einen engen Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmengenwachstum und folgender Inflation postuliert. Das Prognosemodell hat in der Vergangenheit die tatsächliche Inflationsrate aber meistens überzeichnet, manchmal auch unterzeichnet. Die Abweichungen liegen zwischen -0,2 und 0,5 Prozentpunkte, was bei einem Inflationsziel von 2% eine durchaus beträchtliche Fehlerquote ist und damit zu Fehlentscheidungen beitragen kann.
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