Systematic Mispricing in European Equity Prices?
Marian Berneburg
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 6,
2007
Abstract
One empirical argument that has been around for some time and that clearly contra- dicts equity market efficiency is that market prices seem too volatile to be optimal estimates of the present value of future discounted cash flows. Based on this, it is deduced that systematic pricing errors occur in equity markets which hence can not be efficient in the Effcient Market Hypothesis sense. The paper tries to show that this so-called excess volatility is to a large extend the result of the underlying assumptions, which are being employed to estimate the present value of cash flows. Using monthly data for three investment style indices from an integrated European Equity market, all usual assumptions are dropped. This is achieved by employing the Gordon Growth Model and using an estimation process for the dividend growth rate that was suggested by Barsky and De Long. In extension to Barsky and De Long, the discount rate is not assumed at some arbitrary level, but it is estimated from the data. In this manner, the empirical results do not rely on the prerequisites of sta- tionary dividends, constant dividend growth rates as well as non-variable discount rates. It is shown that indeed volatility declines considerably, but is not eliminated. Furthermore, it can be seen that the resulting discount factors for the three in- vestment style indices can not be considered equal, which, on a risk-adjusted basis, indicates performance differences in the investment strategies and hence stands in contradiction to an efficient market. Finally, the estimated discount rates under- went a plausibility check, by comparing their general movement to a market based interest rate. Besides the most recent data, the estimated discount rates match the movements of market interest rates fairly well.
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Industry Specialization, Diversity and the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Jena Economic Research Papers, Nr. 2007-018,
Nr. 18,
2007
Abstract
Innovation processes are characterized by a pronounced division of labor between actors. Two types of externality may arise from such interactions. On the one hand, a close location of actors affiliated to the same industry may stimulate innovation (MAR externalities). On the other hand, new ideas may be born by the exchange of heterogeneous and complementary knowledge between actors, which belong to different industries (Jacobs’ externalities). We test the impact of both MAR as well as Jacobs’ externalities on innovative performance at the regional level. The results suggest an inverted u-shaped relationship between regional specialization in certain industries and innovative performance. Further key determinants of the regional innovative performance are private sector R&D and university-industry collaboration.
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Globalisation and Euro Area Trade: Interactions and Challenges
Filippo di Mauro, Ursel Baumann
ECB Occasional Paper,
Nr. 55,
2007
Abstract
As a major player in world trade, the euro area is strongly influenced by globalisation, but is far from being a passive spectator. The paper analyses how the euro area's trade specialization has changed in response to stronger international competition and the emergence of new global players, evaluating results and possible challenges ahead. The message remains mixed. On the positive side, the export specialisation of the euro area is increasing in some medium-high or high-tech sectors where productivity growth is strong and demand robust, such as pharmaceuticals, also by a more intensive recourse to importing intermediate goods from low-cost countries. On the other hand, in comparison to other industrialised economies, the euro area has been somewhat slower in moving towards research-intensive goods and away from labour-intensive sectors. While this could reflect data classification issues, it may also be a sign of structural rigidities in the euro area, which hinder adjustment processes.
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FDI versus exports: Evidence from German banks
Claudia M. Buch, A. Lipponer
Journal of Banking and Finance,
Nr. 3,
2007
Abstract
We use a new bank-level dataset to study the FDI-versus-exports decision for German banks. We extend the literature on multinational firms in two directions. First, we simultaneously study FDI and the export of cross-border financial services. Second, we test recent theories on multinational firms which show the importance of firm heterogeneity [Helpman, E., Melitz, M.J., Yeaple, S.R., 2004. Export versus FDI. American Economic Review 94 (1), 300–316]. Our results show that FDI and cross-border services are complements rather than substitutes. Heterogeneity of banks has a significant impact on the internationalization decision. More profitable and larger banks are more likely to expand internationally than smaller banks. They have more extensive foreign activities, and they are more likely to engage in FDI in addition to cross-border financial services.
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Financial Development in Eastern Europe: The First Ten Years
Johannes Stephan, A. Winkler
TU Spektrum,
Nr. 2,
2000
Abstract
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Money and Credit Market Integration in an enlarging Euro Zone: Methodological Issues
Johannes Stephan, Jens Hölscher
European Economic Policies - Alteratives to Orthodox Analysis and Policy Concepts,
2006
Abstract
“The chapter discusses methodological issues of money and credit market integration within the context of an enlarging Euro area. Common methods of interest parity tests are rejected in favour of a comparison of nominal interest rates. Hölscher and Stephan find that from an institutional point of view the new EU member countries look under-banked, whereas interest rates are converging. As policy implication the paper argues for a Euro adoption of the new EU members rather sooner than later.“
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Can EU Policy Intervention Help Productivity Catch-Up?
Johannes Stephan, P. Holmes, J. Lopez-Gonzales, C. Stolberg
Closing the EU East-West Productivity Gap - Foreign direct Investment, Competitiveness, and Public Policy,
2006
Abstract
"A product of the Framework V research project, this book addresses one of the key problems facing the EU today: Why is the ‘new’ EU so much poorer than the ‘old’, and how will EU enlargement help to solve the problem? Focusing on the productivity problems underlying the East-West gap, it looks in particular at the role that foreign investment and R&D can play in closing it. Against that background, the book assesses what role proactive development policy might play in attacking the roots of low social productivity. Concluding that there will be a clear-cut process of convergence between East and West, albeit an incomplete one, it finishes with an assessment of the patterns of competitiveness, East and West, that are likely to emerge from this process of incomplete convergence."
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The Effects of Shared ATM Networks on the Efficiency of Turkish Banks
H. Evren Damar
Applied Economics,
Nr. 6,
2006
Abstract
This study investigates whether forming shared ATM networks has yielded positive benefits for banks in Turkey by increasing their productive efficiency. Using a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach, pure technical and scale efficiency scores of Turkish banks are estimated and analysed for the period 2000–2003. The results suggest that although it is possible to realize positive effects through ATM sharing arrangements, there are multiple factors that determine which banks realize such benefits. The geographical distribution of shared ATMs between urban and rural markets and the level of competition between banks within urban areas are shown to be important determinants of differences in bank efficiency. This discrepancy between the gains associated with ATM sharing may have important implications concerning the adoption and sharing of new technology by banks in developing countries.
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Excess Volatility in European Equity Style Indices - New Evidence
Marian Berneburg
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 16,
2006
Abstract
Are financial markets efficient? One proposition that seems to contradict this is Shiller’s finding of excess volatility in asset prices and its resulting rejection of the discounted cash flow model. This paper replicates Shiller’s approach for a different data set and extends his analysis by testing for a long-run relationship by means of a cointegration analysis. Contrary to previous studies, monthly data for an integrated European stock market is being used, with special attention to equity style investment strategies. On the basis of this analysis’ results, Shiller’s findings seem questionable. While a long-run relationship between prices and dividends can be observed for all equity styles, a certain degree, but to a much smaller extent than in Shiller’s approach, of excess volatility cannot be rejected. But it seems that a further relaxation of Shiller’s assumptions would completely eliminate the finding of an overly strong reaction of prices to changes in dividends. Two interesting side results are, that all three investment styles seem to have equal performance when adjusting for risk, which by itself is an indication for efficiency and that market participants seem to use current dividend payments from one company as an indication for future dividend payments by other firms. Overall the results of this paper lead to the conclusion that efficiency cannot be rejected for an integrated European equity market.
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Cross-border Bank Contagion in Europe
Reint E. Gropp, M. Lo Duca, Jukka M. Vesala
ECB Working Paper, No. 662,
Nr. 662,
2006
Abstract
This paper analyses cross-border contagion in a sample of European banks from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in a given country that experience a large shock on the same day (“coexceedances“) as a function of variables measuring common shocks and lagged coexceedances in other countries. Large shocks are measured by the bottom 95th percentile of the distribution of the daily percentage change in the distance to default of the bank. We find evidence in favour of significant cross-border contagion. We also find some evidence that since the introduction of the euro cross-border contagion may have increased. The results seem to be very robust to changes in the specification.
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