Herding Behavior and Systemic Risk in Global Stock Markets
Iftekhar Hasan, Radu Tunaru, Davide Vioto
Journal of Empirical Finance,
September
2023
Abstract
This paper provides new evidence of herding due to non- and fundamental information in global equity markets. Using quantile regressions applied to daily data for 33 countries, we investigate herding during the Eurozone crisis, China’s market crash in 2015–2016, in the aftermath of the Brexit vote and during the Covid-19 Pandemic. We find significant evidence of herding driven by non-fundamental information in case of negative tail market conditions for most countries. This study also investigates the relationship between herding and systemic risk, suggesting that herding due to fundamentals increases when systemic risk increases more than when driven by non-fundamentals. Granger causality tests and Johansen’s vector error-correction model provide solid empirical evidence of a strong interrelationship between herding and systemic risk, entailing that herding behavior may be an ex-ante aspect of systemic risk, with a more relevant role played by herding based on fundamental information in increasing systemic risk.
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Mentoring Helps Highly Disadvantaged Adolescents
Sven Resnjanskij, Jens Ruhose, Katharina Wedel, Simon Wiederhold, Ludger Woessmann
IEB Report "Education Policy: Quality and Equality of Opportunity",
2023
Abstract
In this report, we discuss the results of our randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a nationwide mentoring program designed to improve the labor-market prospects of disadvantaged adolescents in Germany (Resnjanskij et al., 2023). The study is motivated by the high persistence of inequality across generations present even in countries with comprehensive social welfare systems (Alvaredo et al., 2018). In particular, the school-to-work transition is a decisive moment that determines the differences in later labor-market outcomes of young adolescents.
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Medienecho
Medienecho Juli 2024 IWH: “Geschäftsklima für Solo-Selbstständige trübt sich leicht ein” in: Zeit Online, 16.07.2024 IWH: “BMWK zur wirtschaftlichen Lage in Deutschland” in:…
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PhD Graduates Financial Markets
PhD Graduates of the Department of Financial Markets Willam McShane: "The Competitive Effects of Financial Fragility" (2023) Talina Sondershaus: "Unintended Side Effects of…
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IWH-DPE Call for Applications – Fall 2024 Intake
IWH-DPE Call for Applications About the IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics The IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics (IWH-DPE) is a rigorous structured four-year PhD programme with…
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DPE Course Programme Archive
DPE Course Programme Archive 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2024 Macroeconomics several lecturers summer term 2024 (IWH) Macroeconomics with…
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Lecturers
Lecturers at CGDE Institutions Jordan Adamson Assistant Professor at Institute for Empirical Economic Research, Leipzig University. Website Course: Econometrics (winter term…
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People
People Job Market Candidates Doctoral Students PhD Representatives Alumni Supervisors Lecturers Coordinators Job Market Candidates Tommaso Bighelli Job market paper: "The…
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Market-implied Ratings and Their Divergence from Credit Ratings
Iftekhar Hasan, Winnie P. H. Poon, Jianfu Shen, Gaiyan Zhang
Journal of Financial Research,
Nr. 2,
2023
Abstract
In this article, we investigate the divergence between credit ratings (CRs) and Moody's market-implied ratings (MIRs). Our evidence shows that rating gaps provide incremental information to the market regarding issuers' default risk over CRs alone in the short horizon and outperform CRs over extended horizons. The predictive ability of rating gaps is greater for more opaque and volatile issuers. Such predictability was more pronounced during the 2008 financial crisis but weakened in the post-Dodd-Frank Act period. This finding is consistent with credit rating agencies' efforts to improve their performance when facing regulatory pressure. Moreover, our analysis identifies rating-gap signals that do (do not) lead to subsequent Moody's actions to place issuers on negative outlook and watchlists. We find that negative signals from MIR gaps have a real economic impact on issuers' fundamentals such as profitability, leverage, investment, and default risk, thus supporting the recovery-efforts hypothesis.
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IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics
Warum ein Doktorandenstudium am IWH? Am Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) arbeiten viele außergewöhnlich motivierte und hochtalentierte junge…
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