Path Dependence and QWERTY's Lock-in: Toward a Veblenian Interpretation
John B. Hall, Iciar Dominguez Lacasa, Jutta Günther
Journal of Economic Issues,
Nr. 2,
2011
Abstract
In “Clio and the Economics of QWERTY,“ Paul David challenges an overarching, mainstream assumption that market forces should indeed lead toward efficient and optimal outcomes that include technology selection. David seeks to explain the endurance of technologies that his use of historiography judges inefficient and suboptimal. We challenge David's research, arguing that failure to consider the original institutional economics (OIE) tradition limits his grasp of complex processes to reduced notions of “path dependence“ based upon a “lock-in.“ This inquiry offers an alternative account of QWERTY and technology selection based upon Veblenian thinking, further supported by Paul Dale Bush's emphasis upon the ceremonial.
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Informed and Uninformed Investment in Housing: The Downside of Diversification
Elena Loutskina, Philip E. Strahan
Review of Financial Studies,
Nr. 5,
2011
Abstract
Mortgage lenders that concentrate in a few markets invest more in information collection than diversified lenders. Concentrated lenders focus on the information-intensive jumbo market and on high-risk borrowers. They are better positioned to price risks and, thus, ration credit less. Adverse selection, however, leads to higher retention of mortgages relative to diversified lenders. Finally, concentrated lenders have higher profits than diversified lenders, their profits vary less systematically, and their stock prices fell less during the 2007—2008 credit crisis. The results imply that geographic diversification led to a decline in screening by lenders, which likely played a role in the 2007–2008 crisis.
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Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?
Makram El-Shagi
North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Nr. 3,
2011
Abstract
The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts based on a number of forecasting techniques from the literature using a panel of ten industrialized countries during the period of 1988 to 2007. To capture expected inflation, we develop a recursive filtering algorithm which extracts unexpected inflation from real interest rate data, even in the presence of diverse risks and a potential Mundell-Tobin-effect.
The extracted unexpected inflation is compared to the forecasting errors of ten
econometric forecasts. Beside the standard AR(p) and ARMA(1,1) models, which
are known to perform best on average, we also employ several Phillips curve based approaches, VAR, dynamic factor models and two simple model avering approaches.
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Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-candidates
Hubert Gabrisch, Lucjan T. Orlowski
Comparative Economic Studies,
Nr. 4,
2011
Abstract
This study investigates extreme tail risks in financial markets of the euro-candidate countries and their implications for monetary policies. Our empirical tests show the prevalence of extreme risks in the conditional volatility series of selected financial variables, that is, interbank rates, equity market indexes and exchange rates. We argue that excessive instability of key target and instrument variables should be mitigated by monetary policies. Central banks in these countries will be well-advised to use both standard and unorthodox (discretionary) tools of monetary policy while steering their economies out of the financial crisis and through the euro-convergence process.
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Recovery and Beyond: Lessons for Trade Adjustment and Competitiveness
Filippo di Mauro, Benjamin Mandel
ECB E-Book,
May
2011
Abstract
The great trade collapse in the wake of the 2008-9 financial crisis provideda unique insight into the complexities inherent to international markets, and underlined a number of lessons for us to consider as we evaluate the shape of the global trade recovery. While the factors contributing to the crisis were diverse and multifaceted, it is arguable that persisting imbalances across the globe played a role. How will trade imbalances unwind and what is the role for policies influencing international transactions for goods and services? A precursor to answering this question is a broad understanding of how trade flows react to changes in the macroeconomy, and therefore much of this book will focus on recent assessments of the drivers of trade adjustment. A closely related concept affecting the degree to which countries trade is their relative competitive position. To tie in the chapters with the broader policy emphasis on competitiveness, we will also define and evaluate several drivers of international trade competitiveness.
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Stock Market-Induced Currency Crises: A New Type of Twins
Stefan Eichler, Dominik Maltritz
Review of Development Economics,
Nr. 2,
2011
Abstract
This paper explores the link between currency crises and the stock market in emerging economies. By integrating foreign stock market investors in a currency crisis model, we reveal a new fundamental inconsistency as a potential crisis trigger: since emerging economies' stock markets often have high returns, whereas central bank reserves grow slowly or decline, the amount of reserves foreign investors can deplete when selling their stocks and repatriating the proceeds grows over time and is considerably higher than funds that have been invested in the stock market. Capital withdrawals of foreign stock market investors can trigger currency crises by depleting central bank reserves, particularly in successful countries with booming stock markets and large foreign investment.
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Where Are Global and U.S. Trade Heading in the Aftermath of the Trade Collapse: Issues and Alternative Scenarios
Filippo di Mauro, Joseph Gruber, Bernd Schnatz, Nico Zorell
FRB International Finance Discussion Paper,
Nr. 1017,
2011
Abstract
Global and U.S. trade declined dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. The subsequent recovery in trade, while vigorous at first, gradually lost momentum in 2010. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the prospects for global and U.S. trade in the medium term. We develop a unified empirical framework ? an error correction model ? that exploits the cointegrating relationship between trade and economic activity. The model allows us to juxtapose several scenarios with different assumptions about the strength of GDP growth going forward and the relationship between trade and economic activity. Our analysis suggests that during the crisis both world trade and U.S. exports declined significantly more than would have been expected on the basis of historical relationships with economic activity. Moreover, this gap between actual and equilibrium trade is closing only slowly and could persist for some time to come.
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Central and Eastern European Countries in the Global Financial Crisis: A Typical Twin Crisis?
Diemo Dietrich, Tobias Knedlik, Axel Lindner
Post-Communist Economies,
Nr. 4,
2011
Abstract
This paper shows that during the Great Recession, banking and currency crises occurred simultaneously in Central and Eastern Europe. Events, however, differed widely from what happened during the Asian crisis that usually serves as the model case for the concept of twin crises. We look at three elements that help explaining the nature of events in Central and Eastern Europe: the problem of currency mismatches, the relation between currency and banking crises, and the importance of multinational banks for financial stability. It is shown that theoretical considerations concerning internal capital markets of multinational banks help understand what happened on capital markets and in the financial sector of the region. We discuss opposing effects of multinational banking on financial stability and find that institutional differences are the key to understand differing effects of the global financial crisis. In particular, we argue that it matters if international activities are organized by subsidiaries or by cross-border financial services, how large the share of foreign currency-denominated credit is and whether the exchange rate is fixed or flexible. Based on these three criteria we give an explanation why the pattern of the crisis in the Baltic States differed markedly from that in Poland and the Czech Republic, the two largest countries of the region.
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What Drives FDI in Central-eastern Europe? Evidence from the IWH-FDI-Micro Database
Andrea Gauselmann, Mark Knell, Johannes Stephan
Post-Communist Economies,
Nr. 3,
2011
Abstract
The focus of this paper is on the match between strategic motives of foreign investments into Central-Eastern Europe and locational advantages offered by these countries. Our analysis makes use of the IWH-FDI-Micro Database, a unique dataset that contains information from 2009 about the determinants of locational factors, technological activity of the subsidiaries, and the potentials for knowledge spillovers in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The analysis suggests that investors in these countries are mainly interested in low (unit) labour costs coupled with a well-trained and educated workforce and an expanding market with the high growth rates in the purchasing power of potential buyers. It also suggests that the financial crisis reduced the attractiveness of the region as a source for localised knowledge and technology. There appears to be a match between investors’ expectations and the quantitative supply of unqualified labour, not however for the supply of medium qualified workers. But the analysis suggests that it is not technology-seeking investments that are particularly content with the capabilities of their host economies in terms of technological cooperation. Finally, technological cooperation within the local host economy is assessed more favourably with domestic firms than with local scientific institutions – an important message for domestic economic policy.
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