Neo-liberalism, the Changing German Labor Market, and Income Distribution: An Institutionalist and Post Keynesian Analysis
John B. Hall, Udo Ludwig
Journal of Economic Issues,
2010
Abstract
This inquiry relies on an Institutionalist and Post Keynesian analysis to explore Germany's neo-liberal project, noting cumulative effects emerging as measurable economic and societal outcomes. Investments in technologies generate rising output-to-capital ratios. Increasing exports offset the Domar problem, but give rise to capital surpluses. National income redistributes in favor of capital. Novel labor market institutions emerge. Following Minsky, good times lead to bad: as seeming successes of neo-liberal policies are accompanied by financial instability, growing disparities in household incomes, and sharp declines in German exports on world markets, resulting in one of the deepest, recent contractions in the industrialized world.
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Incubation Time, Incubator Age, and Firm Survival after Graduation
Michael Schwartz
International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management,
2012
Abstract
On the basis of a sample of 149 graduate firms from five German business incubators, this article contributes to incubator/incubation literature by investigating the effects of the age of the incubators and the firms´ incubation time in securing long-term survival of the firms after leaving the incubator facilities. The empirical findings from Cox proportional hazards regression and parametric accelerated failure time models reveal a statistically significant negative impact for both variables incubator age and incubation time on post-graduation firm survival. One important implication that follows from the empirical results for policy makers and managers of those initiatives is that, when incubator managers become increasingly involved in various regional development activities, this may reduce the effectiveness of incubator support. Also, our finding speaks in favour of a strict limitation of incubation times and reinforces arguments of the supporters of maximum tenancy.
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Investor Rationality and House Price Bubbles: The Case of Berlin and the German Reunification
Oliver Holtemöller, R. Schulz
German Economic Review,
2010
Abstract
We analyze the behavior of investors in the Berlin rental apartment house market over the years 1980–2004. Using constant-quality multipliers (price–rent ratios), we reject the hypothesis that multipliers in the market were set in a rational manner. Supported by narrative evidence, we conjecture that investors misjudged the economic effects of the German reunification. To examine this, we employ a stylized structural economic model and analyze the effects of shocks on rational multipliers. It seems that investors confused the reunification with a permanent supply side shock to the economy. By basing their investment decisions on this misjudgement, investors behaved irrationally, but in a very uncertain and unprecedented environment.
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Currency Crisis Prediction Using ADR Market Data: An Options-based Approach
Stefan Eichler, Dominik Maltritz
International Journal of Forecasting,
Nr. 4,
2010
Abstract
During capital control episodes, large price deviations between American Depositary Receipts (ADR) and their underlying stocks signal that a currency crisis is about to occur. We interpret this price spread as the price of a call option. Using option pricing theory we derive detailed information about both the probability of a currency crisis and the expected magnitude of devaluation. Analyzing daily ADR market data preceding the Venezuelan crisis (1996), our approach predicts crisis probabilities of almost 100% and forecasts the exchange rate after floating quite accurately. During the Argentine crisis (2002), the estimated exchange rates are similar to the actual ones.
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Do Banks Benefit from Internationalization? Revisiting the Market Power-Risk Nexus
Claudia M. Buch, C. T. Koch, Michael Koetter
Abstract
Recent developments on international financial markets have called the benefits of
bank globalization into question. Large, internationally active banks have
acquired substantial market power, and international activities have not
necessarily made banks less risky. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the
actual link between bank internationalization, bank risk, and market power.
Analyzing this link is the purpose of this paper. We jointly estimate the
determinants of risk and market power of banks, and we analyze the effects of
changes in terms of the number of foreign countries (the extensive margin) and
the volume of foreign assets (the intensive margin). Our paper has four main
findings. First, there is a strong negative feedback effect between risk and market
power. Second, banks with higher shares of foreign assets, in particular those held
through foreign branches, have higher market power at home. Third, holding
assets in a large number of foreign countries tends to increase bank risk. Fourth,
the impact of internationalization differs across banks from different banking
groups and of different size.
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Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
Abstract
This paper analyzes the role of common data problems when identifying structural breaks in small samples. Most notably, we survey small sample properties of the most commonly applied endogenous break tests developed by Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975) and Zeileis (2004), Nyblom (1989) and Hansen (1992), and Andrews, Lee, and Ploberger (1996). Power and size properties are derived using Monte Carlo simulations. Results emphasize that mostly the CUSUM type tests are affected by the presence of heteroscedasticity, whereas the individual parameter Nyblom test and AvgLM test are proved to be highly robust. However, each test is significantly affected by leptokurtosis. Contrarily to other tests, where skewness is far more problematic than kurtosis, it has no additional effect for any of the endogenous break tests we analyze. Concerning overall robustness the Nyblom test performs best, while being almost on par to more recently developed tests in terms of power.
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The Dilemma of Delegating Search: Budgeting in Public Employment Services
Martin Altemeyer-Bartscher, J. T. Addison, T. Kuhn
IZA Discussion Papers, No. 5170,
Nr. 5170,
2010
Abstract
The poor performance often attributed to many public employment services may be explained in part by a delegation problem between the central office and local job centers. In markets characterized by frictions, job centers function as match-makers, linking job seekers with relevant vacancies. Because their search intensity in contacting employers and collecting data is not verifiable by the central authority, a typical moral hazard problem can arise. To overcome the delegation problem and provide high-powered incentives for high levels of search effort on the part of job centers, we propose output-related schemes that assign greater staff capacity to agencies achieving high strike rates.
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Corporate Governance in the Multinational Enterprise: A Financial Contracting Perspective
Diemo Dietrich, Björn Jindra
International Business Review,
2010
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to bring economics-based finance research more into the focus of international business theory. On the basis of an analytical model that introduces financial constraints into incomplete contracting in an international vertical trade relationship, we propose an integrated framework that facilitates the study of the interdependencies between internalisation decisions, firm-internal allocations of control rights, and the debt capacity of firms. We argue that the financial constraint of an MNE and/or its supplier should be considered as an important determinant of internal governance structures, complementary to, and interacting with, institutional factors and proprietary knowledge.
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