03
JUL
2017
14:15
- 15:45
IWH Research Seminar
Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-state Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle
Wer
Maik Wolters
(Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena)
Wo
IWH conference room
We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net softthresholding rule.
