1. Publications
  2. CERGE-EI Working Paper, 744/2023

Voting under Debtor Distress

There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor distress has grown in Europe following the financial crisis. We study the unique case of the Czech Republic, where by 2017, nearly one in ten citizens had been served at least one debtor distress warrant even though the country consistently features low unemployment. Our municipality-level difference-in-differences analysis asks about the voting consequences of a rise in debtor distress following a 2001 deregulation of consumer-debt collection. We find that debtor distress has a positive effect on support for (new) extreme right and populist parties, but a negative effect on a (traditional) extreme-left party. The effects of debtor distress we uncover are robust to whether and how we control for economic hardship; the effects of debtor distress and economic hardship are of similar magnitude, but operate in opposing directions across the political spectrum.

16. April 2024

Authors Jakub Grossmann Štěpán Jurajda

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Suggested Reading

COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic

Alena Bičáková Štěpán Jurajda

in: CERGE-EI Working Paper, No. 778, 2024

Abstract

We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.

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Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Postwar Czechoslovakia

Jakub Grossmann Štěpán Jurajda Felix Rösel

in: American Journal of Political Science, No. 2, 2023

Abstract

Can staying minorities who evade ethnic cleansing affect political outcomes in resettled communities? After World War Two, three million ethnic Germans were expelled from Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland, but some were allowed to stay, many of them left-leaning antifascists. We study quasi-experimental local variation in expulsion policies, a result of the surprising presence of the U.S. Army, which indirectly helped antifascist Germans stay. We find a long-lasting footprint: Communist party support, party cells, and far-left values are stronger today where antifascist Germans stayed in larger numbers. Postwar German Communist elites appear to be behind this effect along with the intergenerational transmission of values among active party members.

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The Impact of Debtor Distress and Unemployment on Support for Extremist and Populist Political Parties in the Czech Republic 2001–2017

Jakub Grossmann Štěpán Jurajda Lucie Zapletalová

in: IDEA CERGE EI Studie, No. 11, 2023

Abstract

In this study, we analyze the relationships between rising rates of distraint orders and electoral support for populist political parties and extreme left and right wing political parties at the local level. (This publication is written in czech language.)

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The Long-term Legacy of the Liberation of the Sudetenland by the Red and US Armies

Jakub Grossmann Štěpán Jurajda

in: IDEA CERGE EI Studie, No. 7, 2022

Abstract

Forced migration results in trauma to the millions of people displaced from their homes, but very little is known about the fate of those who avoided expulsion and became a minority in the new society. This analysis reveals how and to what degree the manner and extent of the post-war expulsion of the German population from the Sudetenland influenced the country’s long-term social development. (This publication is written in czech language.)

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Bleibender Eindruck: Nicht vertriebene Sudetendeutsche prägen die politische Landschaft in Tschechien bis heute

Jakub Grossmann Štěpán Jurajda Felix Rösel

in: ifo Dresden berichtet, No. 6, 2022

Abstract

Nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg wurden mehr als 3 Mill. Sudetendeutsche aus der Tschechoslowakei ver trieben. Rund 100 000 unverzichtbare Industriebeschäftigte sowie 100 000 sudetendeutsche Antifaschisten blieben jedoch. Ihr Schicksal war bisher weitgehend unbeleuchtet. Wir zeigen, dass in Regionen mit vielen zurück gebliebenen deutschen Antifaschisten die Kommunistische Partei Tschechiens bis heute stärker verankert ist. Die deutschen Antifaschisten engagierten sich frühzeitig für den Kommunismus und gaben über Partei strukturen und innerhalb von Familien ihre Werte weiter. Nichtvertriebene können damit eine neue Mehr heitsgesellschaft nach ethnischen Säuberungen mitprägen, auch wenn sie selbst zur Minderheit gehören.

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