Financial Intermediaries and the Real Economy
Financial intermediation can affect the real economy in many ways. Access to credit, for example, is vital for firms to fund investment and innovation activities and can affect overall economic activity. This research group aims at understanding the link between financial intermediation and real activity by exploring several potential channels. The group studies direct effects on firms using rich microdata as well as the link between credit markets and economic activity in the aggregate. Thereby, this research group contributes to the scientific literature in three main ways.
First, it provides new ways to use credit market information as a signal for economic developments. Over the past decades an active and liquid secondary market for (syndicated) loans has developed. Thus, for the first time, daily loan prices for corporate loans, including loans to small and private firms, have become available. Do loan prices contain information for real economic activity above and beyond information contained in other asset prices, such as corporate bond spread? Deriving novel predictors is important both for economic forecasting as well as for understanding the different channels through which the financial sector can affect the real economy.
Second, not only access to credit but also allocation of credit matter for the real economy. Weakly capitalised banks can have incentives to continue to fund insolvent borrowers and bet on their recovery instead of classifying loans as non-performing. This phenomenon called “zombie lending” has been documented in various context, including in Europe after the financial crisis/ during the sovereign debt crisis. Existing research shows that zombie lending can impede industry competition and lead to congestion. This research group will focus on one area that has received only limited attention in the literature: the potential effect of credit misallocation on firm innovation activity. If industry dynamism is reduced due to credit misallocation, as shown in the literature, firms’ incentives to engage in risky R&D might be limited and entry by innovative young firms might be deterred. Given that innovation is a long-run motor of growth understanding potential long-lasting effects of misallocation on firms’ R&D and patenting activities is of first-order importance.
Third, the group focuses on the effects of financial intermediation and investor actions on firms’ incentive to reduce their carbon footprint. While existing evidence points at investor engagement being effective at incentivizing firms to reduce emissions, the overall environmental impact is less clear. Firms might divest polluting assets instead of making their overall operation greener. If assets are merely reallocated across firms, overall emissions are not reduced. This research group aims at examining to what extend carbon leakage following actions that increase investor pressure on public firms is a prevalent phenomenon. Further, it will be examined where “non-sustainable assets” ultimately end up if large public firms that receive pressure from shareholders have increased incentives to divest.
Workpackage 1: Loan Markets and Economic Activity
Workpackage 2: Credit Misallocation and Innovation
Workpackage 3: Investor Actions and Climate Change
Research Cluster
Productivity and InstitutionsYour contact
Refereed Publications
Credit Supply Shocks: Financing Real Growth or Takeovers?
in: Review of Corporate Finance Studies, No. 2, 2024
Abstract
How do firms invest when financial constraints are relaxed? We document that firms affected by a large positive credit supply shock predominantly increase borrowing for transaction-based purposes. These treated firms have larger asset and employment growth rates; however, growth entirely stems from the increased takeover activity. Announcement returns indicate a low quality of the credit-supply-induced takeover activity. These results offer the possibility that credit-driven growth can simply reflect redistribution, rather than net gains in assets or employment.
Financial Debt Contracting and Managerial Agency Problems
in: Financial Management, No. 1, 2024
Abstract
This paper analyzes if lenders resolve managerial agency problems in loan contracts using sweep covenants. Sweeps require a (partial) prepayment when triggered and are included in many contracts. Exploiting exogenous reductions in analyst coverage due to brokerage house mergers and closures, we find that increased borrower opacity significantly increases sweep use. The effect is strongest for borrowers with higher levels of managerial entrenchment and if lenders hold both debt and equity in the firm. Overall, our results suggest that lenders implement sweep covenants to mitigate managerial agency problems by limiting contingencies of wealth expropriation.
Economic Preferences for Risk-Taking and Financing Costs
in: Journal of Corporate Finance, June 2023
Abstract
We hypothesize and empirically establish that economic preferences for risk-taking in different subnational regions affect firm financing costs. We study this hypothesis by hand-matching firms' regions worldwide with the corresponding regional economic risk-taking preferences. We first show that higher regional risk-taking is positively associated with several measures of firm risk and investments. Subsequently, our baseline results show that credit and bond pricing increase when risk-taking preferences increase. For the loan of average size and maturity a one-standard-deviation increase in regional risk-taking increases interest expense by $0.54 million USD. We also find that these results are demand (firm)-driven and stronger for firms with more local shareholders.
Spillover Effects in Empirical Corporate Finance
in: Journal of Financial Economics, No. 3, 2021
Abstract
Despite their importance, the discussion of spillover effects in empirical research often misses the rigor dedicated to endogeneity concerns. We analyze a broad set of workhorse models of firm interactions and show that spillovers naturally arise in many corporate finance settings. This has important implications for the estimation of treatment effects: i) even with random treatment, spillovers lead to a complicated bias, ii) fixed effects can exacerbate the spillover-induced bias. We propose simple diagnostic tools for empirical researchers and illustrate our guidance in an application.
Bank Concentration and Product Market Competition
in: Review of Financial Studies, No. 10, 2021
Abstract
This paper documents a link between bank concentration and markups in nonfinancial sectors. We exploit concentration-increasing bank mergers and variation in banks’ market shares across industries and show that higher credit concentration is associated with higher markups and that high-market-share lenders charge lower loan rates. We argue that this is due to the greater incidence of competing firms sharing common lenders that induce less aggressive product market behavior among their borrowers, thereby internalizing potential adverse effects of higher rates. Consistent with our conjecture, the effect is stronger in industries with competition in strategic substitutes where negative product market externalities are greatest.
Working Papers
Too Poor to Be Green? The Effects of Wealth on the Residential Heating Transformation
in: SSRN Working Paper, 2024
Abstract
Using the near-universe of Danish owner-occupied residential houses, we show that an exogenous increase in wealth significantly increases the likelihood to switch to green heating. We estimate an elasticity of one at the median of the wealth distribution, i.e., a 10% increase in wealth increase raises green heating adoption by 10%. Effects are heterogeneous along the wealth distribution: all else equal, a redistribution of wealth from rich households to poor households can significantly increase green heating adoption. We further explore potential channels of our findings (pro-social preferences, financial constraints, and luxury goods interpretation). Our results emphasize the role of economic growth for the green transition.
Do Public Bank Guarantees Affect Labor Market Outcomes? Evidence from Individual Employment and Wages
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 7, 2024
Abstract
We investigate whether employees in Germany benefit from public bank guarantees in terms of employment probability and wages. To that end, we exploit the removal of public bank guarantees in Germany in 2001 as a quasi-natural experiment. Our results show that bank guarantees lead to higher employment, but lower wage prospects for employees after working in affected establishments. Overall the results suggest that employees do not benefit from bank guarantees.
Out of Sight, out of Mind: Divestments and the Global Reallocation of Pollutive Assets
in: SSRN Working Papers, 2023
Abstract
Large emitters reduced their carbon emissions by around 11-15% after the 2015 Paris Agreement (“the Agreement”) relative to public firms that are less in the limelight. We show that this effect is predominantly driven by divestments. Large emitters are 9 p.p. more likely to divest pollutive assets in the post-Agreement period, an increase of over 75%. This divestment effect comes from asset sales and not from closures of pollutive facilities. There is no evidence for increased engagements in other emission reduction activities. Our results indicate significant global asset reallocation effects after the Agreement, shifting emissions out of the limelight.
Corporate Loan Spreads and Economic Activity
in: SSRN Working Paper, 2021
Abstract
We use secondary corporate loan-market prices to construct a novel loan-market-based credit spread. This measure has considerable predictive power for economic activity across macroeconomic outcomes in both the U.S. and Europe and captures unique information not contained in public market credit spreads. Loan-market borrowers are compositionally different and particularly sensitive to supply-side frictions as well as financial frictions that emanate from their own balance sheets. This evidence highlights the joint role of financial intermediary and borrower balance-sheet frictions in understanding macroeconomic developments and enriches our understanding of which type of financial frictions matter for the economy.
Capital Misallocation and Innovation
in: SSRN Solutions Research Paper Series, 2020
Abstract
This paper documents that "zombie" lending by undercapitalized banks distorts competition and impedes corporate innovation. This misallocation of capital prevents both the exit of zombie and entry of healthy firms in affected industries adversely impacting output and competition. Worse, capital misallocation depresses patent applications, particularly in high technology- and R&D-intensive sectors, and industries with neck- and-neck competition. We strengthen our results using an IV approach to address reverse causality and innovation survey data from the European Commission. Overall, our results are consistent with externalities imposed on healthy firms through the misallocation of capital.