Financial Intermediaries and the Real Economy

Financial intermediation can affect the real economy in many ways. Access to credit, for example, is vital for firms to fund investment and innovation activities and can affect overall economic activity. The research group “Financial Intermediaries and the Real Economy” aims at understanding the link between financial intermediation and real activity by exploring several potential channels. The group studies direct effects on firms using rich microdata as well as the link between credit markets and economic activity in the aggregate. Thereby, this research group contributes to the scientific literature in three main ways.

First, it provides new ways to use credit market information as a signal for economic developments. Over the past decades an active and liquid secondary market for (syndicated) loans has developed. Thus, for the first time, daily loan prices for corporate loans, including loans to small and private firms, have become available. 

Do loan prices contain information for real economic activity above and beyond information contained in other asset prices, such as corporate bond spread? Deriving novel predictors is important both for economic forecasting as well as for understanding the different channels through which the financial sector can affect the real economy.

Second, not only access to credit but also allocation of credit matter for the real economy. Weakly capitalised banks can have incentives to continue to fund insolvent borrowers and bet on their recovery instead of classifying loans as non-performing. This phenomenon called “zombie lending” has been documented in various context, including in Europe after the financial crisis/ during the sovereign debt crisis. Existing research shows that zombie lending can impede industry competition and lead to congestion. 

This research group will focus on one area that has received only limited attention in the literature: the potential effect of credit misallocation on firm innovation activity. If industry dynamism is reduced due to credit misallocation, as shown in the literature, firms’ incentives to engage in risky R&D might be limited and entry by innovative young firms might be deterred. Given that innovation is a long-run motor of growth understanding potential long-lasting effects of misallocation on firms’ R&D and patenting activities is of first-order importance.

Third, the group focuses on the effects of financial intermediation and investor actions on firms’ incentive to reduce their carbon footprint. While existing evidence points at investor engagement being effective at incentivizing firms to reduce emissions, the overall environmental impact is less clear. Firms might divest polluting assets instead of making their overall operation greener. If assets are merely reallocated across firms, overall emissions are not reduced. 

This research group aims at examining to what extend carbon leakage following actions that increase investor pressure on public firms is a prevalent phenomenon. Further, it will be examined where “non-sustainable assets” ultimately end up if large public firms that receive pressure from shareholders have increased incentives to divest.

Workpackage 1: Loan Markets and Economic Activity

Workpackage 2: Credit Misallocation and Innovation

Workpackage 3: Investor Actions and Climate Change

Research Cluster
Productivity and Institutions

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Professor Dr Daniel Streitz
Professor Dr Daniel Streitz
- Department Financial Markets
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Refereed Publications

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The Impact of Credit Default Swap Trading on Loan Syndication

Daniel Streitz

in: Review of Finance, No. 1, 2016

Abstract

We analyze the impact of credit default swap (CDS) trading on bank syndication activity. Theoretically, the effect of CDS trading is ambiguous: on the one hand, CDS can improve risk-sharing and hence be a more flexible risk management tool than loan syndication; on the other hand, CDS trading can reduce bank monitoring incentives. We document that banks are less likely to syndicate loans and retain a larger loan fraction once CDS are actively traded on the borrower’s debt. We then discern the risk management and the moral hazard channel. We find no evidence that the reduced likelihood to syndicate loans is a result of increased moral hazard problems.

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Determinants of the Size of the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Market

Tobias Berg Daniel Streitz

in: Journal of Fixed Income, No. 3, 2016

Abstract

We analyze the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) market for 57 countries, using a novel dataset comprising weekly positions and turnover data. We document that CDS markets—measured relative to a country’s debt—are larger for smaller countries, countries with a rating just above the investment-grade cutoff, and countries with weaker creditor rights. Analyzing changes in credit risk, we find that rating changes matter but only for negative rating events (downgrades and negative outlooks). In particular, weeks with downgrades and negative outlooks are associated with a significantly higher turnover in the sovereign CDS market, even after controlling for changes in sovereign CDS spreads. We conclude that agencies’ ratings are a major determinant of the size of the sovereign CDS market.

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Working Papers

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Too Poor to Be Green? The Effects of Wealth on the Residential Heating Transformation

Tobias Berg Ulf Nielsson Daniel Streitz

in: SSRN Working Paper, 2024

Abstract

Using the near-universe of Danish owner-occupied residential houses, we show that an exogenous increase in wealth significantly increases the likelihood to switch to green heating. We estimate an elasticity of one at the median of the wealth distribution, i.e., a 10% increase in wealth increase raises green heating adoption by 10%. Effects are heterogeneous along the wealth distribution: all else equal, a redistribution of wealth from rich households to poor households can significantly increase green heating adoption. We further explore potential channels of our findings (pro-social preferences, financial constraints, and luxury goods interpretation). Our results emphasize the role of economic growth for the green transition.

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Do Public Bank Guarantees Affect Labor Market Outcomes? Evidence from Individual Employment and Wages

Laura Baessler Georg Gebhardt Reint E. Gropp Andre Guettler Ahmet Taskin

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 7, 2024

Abstract

We investigate whether employees in Germany benefit from public bank guarantees in terms of employment probability and wages. To that end, we exploit the removal of public bank guarantees in Germany in 2001 as a quasi-natural experiment. Our results show that bank guarantees lead to higher employment, but lower wage prospects for employees after working in affected establishments. Overall the results suggest that employees do not benefit from bank guarantees.

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Out of Sight, out of Mind: Divestments and the Global Reallocation of Pollutive Assets

Tobias Berg Lin Ma Daniel Streitz

in: SSRN Working Papers, 2023

Abstract

Large emitters reduced their carbon emissions by around 11-15% after the 2015 Paris Agreement (“the Agreement”) relative to public firms that are less in the limelight. We show that this effect is predominantly driven by divestments. Large emitters are 9 p.p. more likely to divest pollutive assets in the post-Agreement period, an increase of over 75%. This divestment effect comes from asset sales and not from closures of pollutive facilities. There is no evidence for increased engagements in other emission reduction activities. Our results indicate significant global asset reallocation effects after the Agreement, shifting emissions out of the limelight.

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Capital Misallocation and Innovation

Christian Schmidt Yannik Schneider Sascha Steffen Daniel Streitz

in: SSRN Solutions Research Paper Series, 2020

Abstract

This paper documents that "zombie" lending by undercapitalized banks distorts competition and impedes corporate innovation. This misallocation of capital prevents both the exit of zombie and entry of healthy firms in affected industries adversely impacting output and competition. Worse, capital misallocation depresses patent applications, particularly in high technology- and R&D-intensive sectors, and industries with neck- and-neck competition. We strengthen our results using an IV approach to address reverse causality and innovation survey data from the European Commission. Overall, our results are consistent with externalities imposed on healthy firms through the misallocation of capital.

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