Risk Shifting in Financial Markets and Sustainable Finance

The contemporary literature on financial intermediation suggests that banks play an important role in the transition towards a sustainable economy. We contribute to this debate by studying lenders' risk shifting incentives, their choices in supporting sustainable business, and how sustainable finance and legal innovations affect firms and households.

First, we analyze how banks respond to climate transition risks. Specifically, we investigate whether banks manage these risks by offloading loans to environmentally harmful firms or by incorporating sustainability pricing provisions into loan contracts. Our ongoing research delves into the role of banking supervision in facilitating the transition to net-zero, specifically by assessing the impact of climate stress tests on banks' lending practices. We also examine how depositors, firms, and financial institutions manage various forms of biodiversity risk.

Second, we illustrate the choice between risk pricing and risk shifting through securitisation by financial institutions. From a household finance perspective, we discuss how mortgage fore­closure laws and mortgage pricing policies should be designed to mitigate moral hazard of lenders and borrowers. We also highlight the effect of zombie mortgage laws on banks and non-bank lenders, and the implications arising for housing markets.

Another line of research aims to establish evidence of how financial regulation contributes to securitisation booms, which are considered to be at the root of the recent boom and bust cycles in housing markets. Specifically, we shed light on how banking deregulation and financial develop­ment increase the probability of a bank operating an originate-to-distribute model in the lead up to the financial crisis that started in 2007. 

Finally, the research group investigates the role of financial institutions in supporting firms to mitigate risk from supply chain disruptions triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic

Workpackage 1: Do financial institutions provide sustainable finance?

Workpackage 2: How do banks choose between risk pricing and risk shifting?

Workpackage 3: The Impact of Banking Supervision and Regulation on Financial Intermediaries

Research Cluster
Financial Resilience and Regulation

Your contact

Professor Huyen Nguyen, PhD
Professor Huyen Nguyen, PhD
- Department Financial Markets
Send Message +49 345 7753-756 Personal page LinkedIn profile

Refereed Publications

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Enforcement of Banking Regulation and the Cost of Borrowing

Yota D. Deli Manthos D. Delis Iftekhar Hasan Liuling Liu

in: Journal of Banking and Finance, April 2019

Abstract

We show that borrowing firms benefit substantially from important enforcement actions issued on U.S. banks for safety and soundness reasons. Using hand-collected data on such actions from the main three U.S. regulators and syndicated loan deals over the years 1997–2014, we find that enforcement actions decrease the total cost of borrowing by approximately 22 basis points (or $4.6 million interest for the average loan). We attribute our finding to a competition-reputation effect that works over and above the lower risk of punished banks post-enforcement and survives in a number of sensitivity tests. We also find that this effect persists for approximately four years post-enforcement.

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Too Connected to Fail? Inferring Network Ties from Price Co-movements

Jakob Bosma Michael Koetter Michael Wedow

in: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, No. 1, 2019

Abstract

We use extreme value theory methods to infer conventionally unobservable connections between financial institutions from joint extreme movements in credit default swap spreads and equity returns. Estimated pairwise co-crash probabilities identify significant connections among up to 186 financial institutions prior to the crisis of 2007/2008. Financial institutions that were very central prior to the crisis were more likely to be bailed out during the crisis or receive the status of systemically important institutions. This result remains intact also after controlling for indicators of too-big-to-fail concerns, systemic, systematic, and idiosyncratic risks. Both credit default swap (CDS)-based and equity-based connections are significant predictors of bailouts. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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Legal Insider Trading and Stock Market Liquidity

Hans Degryse Frank de Jong Jérémie Lefebvre

in: De Economist, No. 1, 2016

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of legal trades by corporate insiders on the liquidity of the firm’s stock. For this purpose, we analyze two liquidity measures and one information asymmetry measure. The analysis allows us to study as well the effect of a change in insider trading regulation, namely the implementation of the Market Abuse Directive (European Union Directive 2003/6/EC) on the Dutch stock market. The first set of results shows that, in accordance with theories of asymmetric information, the intensity of legal insider trading in a given company is positively related to the bid-ask spread and to the information asymmetry measure. We also find that the Market Abuse Directive did not reduce significantly this effect. Secondly, analyzing liquidity and information asymmetry around the days of legal insider trading, we find that small and large capitalization stocks see their bid-ask spread and the permanent price impact increase when insiders trade. For mid-cap stocks, only the permanent price impact increases. Finally, we could not detect a significant improvement of these results following the change in regulation.

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Working Papers

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Real Estate Transaction Taxes and Credit Supply

Michael Koetter Philipp Marek Antonios Mavropoulos

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 26, 2022

Abstract

We exploit staggered real estate transaction tax (RETT) hikes across German states to identify the effect of house price changes on mortgage credit supply. Based on approximately 33 million real estate online listings, we construct a quarterly hedonic house price index (HPI) between 2008:q1 and 2017:q4, which we instrument with state-specific RETT changes to isolate the effect on mortgage credit supply by all local German banks. First, a RETT hike by one percentage point reduces HPI by 1.2%. This effect is driven by listings in rural regions. Second, a 1% contraction of HPI induced by an increase in the RETT leads to a 1.4% decline in mortgage lending. This transmission of fiscal policy to mortgage credit supply is effective across almost the entire bank capitalization distribution.

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Carbon Transition Risk and Corporate Loan Securitization

Isabella Müller Huyen Nguyen Trang Nguyen

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 22, 2022

Abstract

We examine how banks manage carbon transition risk by selling loans given to polluting borrowers to less regulated shadow banks in securitization markets. Exploiting the election of Donald Trump as an exogenous shock that reduces carbon risk, we find that banks’ securitization decisions are sensitive to borrowers’ carbon footprints. Banks are more likely to securitize brown loans when carbon risk is high but swiftly change to keep these loans on their balance sheets when carbon risk is reduced after Trump’s election. Importantly, securitization enables banks to offer lower interest rates to polluting borrowers but does not affect the supply of green loans. Our findings are more pronounced among domestic banks and banks that do not display green lending preferences. We discuss how securitization can weaken the effectiveness of bank climate policies through reducing banks’ incentives to price carbon risk.

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To Rent or not to Rent: A Household Finance Perspective on Berlin's Short-term Rental Regulation

Antonios Mavropoulos

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 1, 2021

Abstract

With the increasing concerns that accompany the rising trends of house sharing economies, regulators impose new laws to counteract housing supply scarcity. In this paper, I investigate whether the ban on short-term entire house listings activated in Berlin in May 2016 had any adverse effects from a household finance perspective. More specifically, I derive short-term rental income and counter-factually compare it with long-term rental income to find that the ban, by decreasing the supply of short-term housing, accelerated short-term rental income but did not have any direct effect on long-term rental income. Commercial home-owners therefore would find renting on the short-term market to be financially advantageous.

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Real Estate Transaction Taxes and Credit Supply

Michael Koetter Philipp Marek Antonios Mavropoulos

in: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, No. 4, 2021

Abstract

We exploit staggered real estate transaction tax (RETT) hikes across German states to identify the effect of house price changes on mortgage credit supply. Based on approximately 33 million real estate online listings, we construct a quarterly hedonic house price index (HPI) between 2008:q1 and 2017:q4, which we instrument with state-specic RETT changes to isolate the effect on mortgage credit supply by all local German banks. First, a RETT hike by one percentage point reduces HPI by 1.2%. This effect is driven by listings in rural regions. Second, a 1% contraction of HPI induced by an increase in the RETT leads to a 1.4% decline in mortgage lending. This transmission of fiscal policy to mortgage credit supply is effective across almost the entire bank capitalization distribution.

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Housing Consumption and Macroprudential Policies in Europe: An Ex Ante Evaluation

Antonios Mavropoulos Qizhou Xiong

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 17, 2018

Abstract

In this paper, we use the panel of the first two waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey by the European Central Bank to study housing demand of European households and evaluate potential housing market regulations in the post-crisis era. We provide a comprehensive account of the housing decisions of European households between 2010 and 2014, and structurally estimate the housing preference of a simple life-cycle housing choice model. We then evaluate the effect of a tighter LTV/LTI regulation via counter-factual simulations. We find that those regulations limit homeownership and wealth accumulation, reduces housing consumption but may be welfare improving for the young households.

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