Risk Shifting in Financial Markets and Sustainable Finance

The contemporary literature on financial intermediation suggests that banks play an important role in the transition towards a sustainable economy. We contribute to this debate by studying lenders' risk shifting incentives, their choices in supporting sustainable business, and how sustainable finance and legal innovations affect firms and households.

First, we analyze how banks respond to climate transition risks. Specifically, we investigate whether banks manage these risks by offloading loans to environmentally harmful firms or by incorporating sustainability pricing provisions into loan contracts. Our ongoing research delves into the role of banking supervision in facilitating the transition to net-zero, specifically by assessing the impact of climate stress tests on banks' lending practices. We also examine how depositors, firms, and financial institutions manage various forms of biodiversity risk.

Second, we illustrate the choice between risk pricing and risk shifting through securitisation by financial institutions. From a household finance perspective, we discuss how mortgage fore­closure laws and mortgage pricing policies should be designed to mitigate moral hazard of lenders and borrowers. We also highlight the effect of zombie mortgage laws on banks and non-bank lenders, and the implications arising for housing markets.

Another line of research aims to establish evidence of how financial regulation contributes to securitisation booms, which are considered to be at the root of the recent boom and bust cycles in housing markets. Specifically, we shed light on how banking deregulation and financial develop­ment increase the probability of a bank operating an originate-to-distribute model in the lead up to the financial crisis that started in 2007. 

Finally, the research group investigates the role of financial institutions in supporting firms to mitigate risk from supply chain disruptions triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic

Workpackage 1: Do financial institutions provide sustainable finance?

Workpackage 2: How do banks choose between risk pricing and risk shifting?

Workpackage 3: The Impact of Banking Supervision and Regulation on Financial Intermediaries

Research Cluster
Financial Resilience and Regulation

Your contact

Professor Huyen Nguyen, PhD
Professor Huyen Nguyen, PhD
- Department Financial Markets
Send Message +49 345 7753-756 Personal page LinkedIn profile

Refereed Publications

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The Impact of Overconfident Customers on Supplier Firm Risks

Yiwei Fang Iftekhar Hasan Chih-Yung Lin Jiong Sun

in: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, May 2022

Abstract

Research has shown that firms with overconfident chief executive officers (CEOs) tend to overinvest and are exposed to high risks due to unrealistically optimistic estimates of their firms’ future performance. This study finds evidence that overconfident CEOs also affect suppliers’ risk taking. Specifically, serving overconfident customers can lead to high supplier risks, measured by stock volatility, idiosyncratic risk, and market risk. The effects are pronounced when customers aggressively invest in research and development (R&D). Our results are robust after addressing self-selection bias and using different CEO overconfidence measures. We also document some real effects of customer CEO overconfidence on suppliers.

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The Effect of Foreign Institutional Ownership on Corporate Tax Avoidance: International Evidence

Iftekhar Hasan Incheol Kim Haimeng Teng Qiang Wu

in: Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, March 2022

Abstract

We find that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) reduce their investee firms’ tax avoidance. We provide evidence that the effect is driven by the institutional distance between FIIs’ home countries/regions and host countries/regions. Specifically, we find that the effect is driven by the influence of FIIs from countries/regions with high-quality institutions (i.e., common law, high government effectiveness, and high regulatory quality) on investee firms located in countries/regions with low-quality institutions. Furthermore, we show that the effect is concentrated on FIIs with little experience in the investee countries/regions or FIIs with stronger monitoring incentives. Finally, we find that FIIs are more likely to vote against management if the firm has a higher level of tax avoidance.

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External Social Networks and Earnings Management

Ming Fang Bill Francis Iftekhar Hasan Qiang Wu

in: British Accounting Review, No. 2, 2022

Abstract

Using a sample of U.S. listed firms for the 2000–2017 period, we examine how external social networks of top executives and directors affect earnings management in their firms. We find that well-connected firms are more aggressive in managing earnings through both accruals and real activities and that the results are robust after controlling for internal executive social ties. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that earnings management decreases after a socially connected executive or director dies. Additional analysis shows that connections forged by past professional working experiences have a greater impact on earnings management than connections forged by education and other social activities. Moreover, CFO social networks have a greater influence on earnings management than CEO social networks. Finally, we explore the underlying mechanisms, finding that 1) firms that are socially connected to each other show more similarities in their earnings management than firms that do not share a connection, and 2) more connected firms are less likely to incur accounting restatements. Collectively, our findings indicate that the external social networks of top executives and directors are important determinants of both their accrual- and real activity-based earnings management.

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Military Directors, Governance and Firm Behavior

Chen Cai Iftekhar Hasan Yinjie (Victor) Shen Shuai Wang

in: Advances in Accounting, December 2021

Abstract

We build a large dataset of board of directors with military experience and document a substantial and persistent presence of independent military directors serving on corporate boards. We find that firms with independent military directors are associated with better monitoring outcomes, including less excessive CEO compensation, greater forced CEO turnover–performance sensitivity, and less earnings management.

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Local Product Market Competition and Bank Loans

Iftekhar Hasan Yi Shen Xiaoying Yuan

in: Journal of Corporate Finance, 2021

Abstract

We investigate the influences of local product market competition on the cost of private debt. Our evidence suggests that the cost of bank loans is significantly higher for firms headquartered in states with greater local product market competition measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for resident industries. To establish causality, we examine the recognition of the Inevitable Disclosure Doctrine and firm relocations to identify exogenous shocks to local product market competition. We find that the cost of bank loans is lower for firms facing less intense local product market competition after the adoption of IDD and higher for firms relocated to states with more competitive product markets. The results imply that banks value the characteristics of a firm's local product market when approving loan contracts.

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Working Papers

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Real Estate Transaction Taxes and Credit Supply

Michael Koetter Philipp Marek Antonios Mavropoulos

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 26, 2022

Abstract

We exploit staggered real estate transaction tax (RETT) hikes across German states to identify the effect of house price changes on mortgage credit supply. Based on approximately 33 million real estate online listings, we construct a quarterly hedonic house price index (HPI) between 2008:q1 and 2017:q4, which we instrument with state-specific RETT changes to isolate the effect on mortgage credit supply by all local German banks. First, a RETT hike by one percentage point reduces HPI by 1.2%. This effect is driven by listings in rural regions. Second, a 1% contraction of HPI induced by an increase in the RETT leads to a 1.4% decline in mortgage lending. This transmission of fiscal policy to mortgage credit supply is effective across almost the entire bank capitalization distribution.

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Carbon Transition Risk and Corporate Loan Securitization

Isabella Müller Huyen Nguyen Trang Nguyen

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 22, 2022

Abstract

We examine how banks manage carbon transition risk by selling loans given to polluting borrowers to less regulated shadow banks in securitization markets. Exploiting the election of Donald Trump as an exogenous shock that reduces carbon risk, we find that banks’ securitization decisions are sensitive to borrowers’ carbon footprints. Banks are more likely to securitize brown loans when carbon risk is high but swiftly change to keep these loans on their balance sheets when carbon risk is reduced after Trump’s election. Importantly, securitization enables banks to offer lower interest rates to polluting borrowers but does not affect the supply of green loans. Our findings are more pronounced among domestic banks and banks that do not display green lending preferences. We discuss how securitization can weaken the effectiveness of bank climate policies through reducing banks’ incentives to price carbon risk.

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To Rent or not to Rent: A Household Finance Perspective on Berlin's Short-term Rental Regulation

Antonios Mavropoulos

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 1, 2021

Abstract

With the increasing concerns that accompany the rising trends of house sharing economies, regulators impose new laws to counteract housing supply scarcity. In this paper, I investigate whether the ban on short-term entire house listings activated in Berlin in May 2016 had any adverse effects from a household finance perspective. More specifically, I derive short-term rental income and counter-factually compare it with long-term rental income to find that the ban, by decreasing the supply of short-term housing, accelerated short-term rental income but did not have any direct effect on long-term rental income. Commercial home-owners therefore would find renting on the short-term market to be financially advantageous.

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Real Estate Transaction Taxes and Credit Supply

Michael Koetter Philipp Marek Antonios Mavropoulos

in: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, No. 4, 2021

Abstract

We exploit staggered real estate transaction tax (RETT) hikes across German states to identify the effect of house price changes on mortgage credit supply. Based on approximately 33 million real estate online listings, we construct a quarterly hedonic house price index (HPI) between 2008:q1 and 2017:q4, which we instrument with state-specic RETT changes to isolate the effect on mortgage credit supply by all local German banks. First, a RETT hike by one percentage point reduces HPI by 1.2%. This effect is driven by listings in rural regions. Second, a 1% contraction of HPI induced by an increase in the RETT leads to a 1.4% decline in mortgage lending. This transmission of fiscal policy to mortgage credit supply is effective across almost the entire bank capitalization distribution.

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Housing Consumption and Macroprudential Policies in Europe: An Ex Ante Evaluation

Antonios Mavropoulos Qizhou Xiong

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 17, 2018

Abstract

In this paper, we use the panel of the first two waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey by the European Central Bank to study housing demand of European households and evaluate potential housing market regulations in the post-crisis era. We provide a comprehensive account of the housing decisions of European households between 2010 and 2014, and structurally estimate the housing preference of a simple life-cycle housing choice model. We then evaluate the effect of a tighter LTV/LTI regulation via counter-factual simulations. We find that those regulations limit homeownership and wealth accumulation, reduces housing consumption but may be welfare improving for the young households.

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