Human Capital and Fertility in Germany after 1990: Evidence from a Multi-Spell Model
Marco Sunder
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 22,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the timing of birth of the first three children based on German panel
data (GSOEP) within a hazard rate framework. A random effects estimator is
used to accommodate correlation across spells. We consider the role of human
capital – approximated by a Mincer-type regression – and its gender-specific
effects on postponement of parenthood and possible recuperation at higherorder
births. An advantage of the use of panel data in this context consists in
its prospective nature, so that determinants of fertility can be measured when
at risk rather than ex-post, thus helping to reduce the risk of reverse causality.
The analysis finds evidence for strong recuperation effects, i.e., women with
greater human capital endowments follow, on average, a different birth history
trajectory, but with negligible curtailment of completed fertility.
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Effects of Heterogeneity on Bank Efficiency Scores
J. W. B. Bos, Michael Koetter, James W. Kolari, Clemens J. M. Kool
European Journal of Operational Research,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
Bank efficiency estimates often serve as a proxy of managerial skill since they quantify sub-optimal production choices. But such deviations can also be due to omitted systematic differences among banks. In this study, we examine the effects of heterogeneity on bank efficiency scores. We compare different specifications of a stochastic cost and alternative profit frontier model with a baseline specification. After conducting a specification test, we discuss heterogeneity effects on efficiency levels, ranks and the tails of the efficiency distribution. We find that heterogeneity controls influence both banks’ optimal costs and profits and their ability to be efficient. Differences in efficiency scores are important for more than only methodological reasons. First, different ways of accounting for heterogeneity result in estimates of foregone profits and additional costs that are significantly different from what we infer from our general specification. Second, banks are significantly re-ranked when their efficiency is estimated with a specification other than the preferred, general specification. Third, the general specification gives the most reliable estimates of the probability of distress, although differences to the other specifications are low.
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Low Skill but High Volatility?
Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 2665,
2009
Abstract
Globalization may impose a double-burden on low-skilled workers. On the one hand, the relative supply of low-skilled labor increases. This suppresses wages of low-skilled workers and/or increases their unemployment rates. On the other hand, low-skilled workers typically face more limited access to financial markets than high-skilled workers. This limits their ability to smooth shocks to income intertemporally and to share risks across borders. Using cross-country, industry-level data for the years 1970 - 2004, we document how the volatility of hours worked and of wages of workers at different skill levels has changed over time. We develop a stylized theoretical model that is consistent with the empirical evidence, and we test the predictions of the model. Our results show that greater financial globalization and development increases the volatility of employment, and this effect is strongest for low-skilled workers. A higher share of low-skilled employment has a dampening impact.
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Professor Qualities and Student Achievement
Florian Hoffmann, Philip Oreopoulos
Review of Economics and Statistics,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
This paper analyzes the importance of teacher quality at the college level. Instructors are matched to objective and subjective characteristics of teacher quality to estimate the impact of rank, salary, and perceived effectiveness on student performance and subject interest. Student and course fixed effects, time of day and week controls, and students' lack of knowledge about first-year instructors help minimize selection biases. Subjective teacher evaluations perform well in measuring instructor influences on students, while objective characteristics such as rank and salary do not. Overall, the importance of college instructor differences is small, but important outliers exist.
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A Lesson Learned? Pre- and Post-Crisis Entry Decisions in Turkish Banking
H. Evren Damar
Contemporary Economic Policy,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
This study looks at the determinants of entry by Turkish banks into local markets during the periods before and after the crisis of 2000–2001. Motivated by a theoretical model of entry, results of fixed-effects logit regressions suggest that there has been a change in the geographical diversification strategies of Turkish banks. It appears that the dominance of strategic concerns, such as competing with banks of similar size, has diminished, while economic concerns, such as incumbent characteristics and cost considerations, have become more important. Overall, the postcrisis restructuring policies seem to have led to improved decision making in the sector.
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The Euro and the Competitiveness of European Firms
Filippo di Mauro, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Daria Taglioni
Economic Policy,
No. 57,
2009
Abstract
Much attention has been paid to the impact of a single currency on actual trade volumes. Lower trade costs, however, matter over and beyond their effects on trade flows: as less productive firms are forced out of business by the tougher competitive conditions of international markets, economic integration fosters lower prices and higher average productivity. We assess the quantitative relevance of these effects calibrating a general equilibrium model using country, sector and firm-level empirical observations. The euro turns out to have increased the overall competitiveness of Eurozone firms, and the effects differ along interesting dimensions: they tend to be stronger for countries which are smaller or with better access to foreign markets, and for firms which specialize in sectors where international competition is fiercer and barriers to entry lower.— Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, Daria Taglioni and Filippo di Mauro
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Growth, Volatility, and Credit Market Imperfections: Evidence from German Firms
Claudia M. Buch, Jörg Döpke
Journal of Economic Studies,
2008
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it studies whether output volatility and growth are linked at the firm-level, using data for German firms. Second, it explores whether the link between volatility and growth depends on the degree of credit market imperfections.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a novel firm-level dataset provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the so-called Financial Statements Data Pool. The dataset has time series observations for German firms for the period 1997-2004, and the authors use information on the debt-to-assets or leverage ratio of firms to proxy for credit-constraints at the firm-level. As additional proxies for the importance of credit market imperfections, we use information on the size and on the legal status of firms.
Findings – The authors find that higher volatility has a negative impact on growth for small and a positive impact for larger firms. Higher leverage is associated with higher growth. At the same time, there is heterogeneity in the determinants of growth across firms from different sectors and across firms with a different legal status.
Practical implications – While most traditional macroeconomic models assume that growth and volatility are uncorrelated, a number of microeconomic models suggest that the two may be linked. However, it is unclear whether the link is positive or negative. The paper presents additional evidence regarding this question. Moreover, understanding whether credit market conditions affect the link between volatility and growth is of importance for policy makers since it suggests a channel through which the credit market can have long-run welfare implications. The results stress the importance of firm-level heterogeneity for the effects and effectiveness of economic policy measures.
Originality/value – The paper has two main novel features. First, it uses a novel firm-level dataset to analyze the determinants of firm-level growth. Second, it analyzes the growth-volatility nexus using firm-level data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper, which addresses the link between volatility, growth, and credit market imperfections using firm-level data.
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Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
This paper evaluates the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and its hybrid
variant within a limited information framework for Germany. The main interest rests on the average frequency of price re-optimization of firms. We use the labor income share as the driving variable and consider a source of real rigidity by allowing for a fixed firm-specific capital stock. A GMM estimation strategy is employed as well as an identification robust method that is based upon the Anderson-Rubin statistic. We find out that the German Phillips Curve is purely forward looking. Moreover, our point estimates are consistent with the view that firms re-optimize prices every two to three quarters. While these estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view, the uncertainties around these estimates are very large and also consistent with perfect nominal price rigidity where firms never re-optimize prices. This analysis also offers some explanations why previous results for the German NKPC based on GMM differ considerably. First, standard GMM results are very sensitive to the way how orthogonality conditions are formulated. Additionally, model misspecifications may be left undetected by conventional J tests. Taken together, this analysis points out
the need for identification robust methods to get reliable estimates for the NKPC.
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Progressivity and flexibility in developing an effective competition regime: using experiences of Poland, Ukraine and South Africa for developing countries. Forschungsbericht innerhalb des EU-Projektes: Competition Policy Foundations for Trade Reform, Regulatory Reform, and Sustainable Development, 2005
Franz Kronthaler, Johannes Stephan
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
No. 5,
2005
Abstract
The paper discusses the role of the concept of special and differential treatment in the framework of regional trade agreements for the development of a competition regime. After a discussion of the main characteristics and possible shortfalls of those concepts, three case countries are assessed in terms of their experience with progressivity, flexibility, and technical and financial assistance: Poland was led to align its competition laws to match the model of the EU. The Ukraine opted voluntarily for the European model, this despite its intense integration mainly with Russia. South Africa, a developing country that emerged from a highly segregated social fabric and an economy dominated by large conglomerates with concentrated ownership. All three countries enacted (or comprehensively reformed) their competition laws in an attempt to face the challenges of economic integration and catch up development on the one hand and particular social problems on the other. Hence, their experience may be pivotal for a variety of different developing countries who are in negotiations to include competition issues in regional trade agreements. The results suggest that the design of such competition issues have to reflect country-particularities to achieve an efficient competition regime.
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