Alumni
IWH-Alumni Das IWH pflegt den Kontakt zu seinen ehemaligen Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeitern weltweit. Wir beziehen unsere Alumni in unsere Arbeit ein und unterrichten diese…
Zur Seite
Robots and Female Employment in German Manufacturing
Liuchun Deng, Steffen Müller, Verena Plümpe, Jens Stegmaier
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings,
May
2023
Abstract
We analyze the impact of robot adoption on female employment. Our analysis is based on novel micro data on robot use by German manufacturing establishments linked with social security records. An event study analysis for robot adoption shows increased churning among female workers. Whereas hiring rises significantly at robot adoption, separations increase with a smaller magnitude one year later. Overall, employment effects are modestly positive and strongest for medium-qualified women. We find no adverse employment effects for female workers in any of our broad qualification groups.
Artikel Lesen
Robots, Occupations, and Worker Age: A Production-unit Analysis of Employment
Liuchun Deng, Steffen Müller, Verena Plümpe, Jens Stegmaier
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 5,
2023
Abstract
We analyse the impact of robot adoption on employment composition using novel micro data on robot use in German manufacturing plants linked with social security records and data on job tasks. Our task-based model predicts more favourable employment effects for the least routine-task intensive occupations and for young workers, with the latter being better at adapting to change. An event-study analysis of robot adoption confirms both predictions. We do not find adverse employment effects for any occupational or age group, but churning among low-skilled workers rises sharply. We conclude that the displacement effect of robots is occupation biased but age neutral, whereas the reinstatement effect is age biased and benefits young workers most.
Artikel Lesen
Firm Social Networks, Trust, and Security Issuances
Ming Fang, Iftekhar Hasan, Zenu Sharma, An Yan
European Journal of Finance,
Nr. 4,
2022
Abstract
We observe that public firms are more likely to issue seasoned stocks rather than bonds when theirs boards are more socially-connected. These connected issuers experience better announcement-period stock returns and attract more institutional investors. This social-connection effect is stronger for firms with severe information asymmetry, higher risk of being undersubscribed, and more visible to investors. Our conjecture is this social-network effect is driven by trust in issuing firms. Given stocks are more sensitive to trust, these trusted firms are more likely to issue stocks than bonds. Trustworthiness plays an important role in firms’ security issuances in capital markets.
Artikel Lesen
Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics
Ufuk Akcigit, Salomé Baslandze, Francesca Lotti
NBER Working Paper,
Nr. 25136,
2018
Abstract
How do political connections affect firm dynamics, innovation, and creative destruction? To answer this question, we build a firm dynamics model, where we allow firms to invest in innovation and/or political connection to advance their productivity and to overcome certain market frictions. Our model generates a number of theoretical testable predictions and highlights a new interaction between static gains and dynamic losses from rent-seeking in aggregate productivity. We test the predictions of our model using a brand-new dataset on Italian firms and their workers, spanning the period from 1993 to 2014, where we merge: (i) firm-level balance sheet data; (ii) social security data on the universe of workers; (iii) patent data from the European Patent Office; (iv) the national registry of local politicians; and (v) detailed data on local elections in Italy. We find that firm-level political connections are widespread, especially among large firms, and that industries with a larger share of politically connected firms feature worse firm dynamics. We identify a leadership paradox: when compared to their competitors, market leaders are much more likely to be politically connected, but much less likely to innovate. In addition, political connections relate to a higher rate of survival, as well as growth in employment and revenue, but not in productivity – a result that we also confirm using a regression discontinuity design.
Artikel Lesen
The Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model – The Case of the German Stimulus Packages During the Great Recession
Andrej Drygalla, Oliver Holtemöller, Konstantin Kiesel
Abstract
In this paper, we analyse the effects of the stimulus packages adopted by the German government during the Great Recession. We employ a standard medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model extended by non-optimising households and a detailed fiscal sector. In particular, the dynamics of spending and revenue variables are modeled as feedback rules with respect to the cyclical component of output. Based on the estimated rules, fiscal shocks are identified. According to the results, fiscal policy, in particular public consumption, investment, transfers and changes in labour tax rates including social security contributions prevented a sharper and prolonged decline of German output at the beginning of the Great Recession, suggesting a timely response of fiscal policy. The overall effects, however, are small when compared to other domestic and international shocks that contributed to the economic downturn. Our overall findings are not sensitive to the allowance of fiscal foresight.
Artikel Lesen
Identifying Bankruptcies in German Social Security Data
Daniel Fackler, Eva Hank, Steffen Müller, Jens Stegmaier
FDZ-Methodenreport,
Nr. 10,
2017
Abstract
In empirischen Studien über Firmenschließungen wird häufig die Notwendigkeit betont, zwischen verschiedenen Arten von Schließungen, z.B. freiwilligen und unfreiwilligen, zu unterscheiden. Dieser Methodenreport erläutert vor diesem Hintergrund, wie im Betriebs-Historik-Panel (BHP) Betriebsstillegungen aufgrund von Insolvenzen identifiziert werden können. Insolvenzen können im Gegensatz zu anderen Schließungen eindeutig als Ausdruck ökonomischen Scheiterns und somit als unfreiwillige Schließungen interpretiert werden. (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Artikel Lesen
25 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall: The Economic Integration of East Germany
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
2014
Abstract
Citizens of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) regained their civil liberties when the Berlin Wall fell 25 years ago. Since then, they have been able to travel freely and have been free to choose where to live and work. The fall of the Berlin Wall was quickly followed by preparations for German Unification at a speed unparalleled in history: the first free Volkskammer elections on 18 March 1990, the economic, monetary and social union on 1 July 1990, and finally, the unification of Germany when the GDR was included in the jurisdiction of the Basic Law of the Federal Republic of Germany. The integration of the economies of East and West Germany, however, has proven to be a drawn-out process.
Artikel Lesen
The Political Setting of Social Security Contributions in Europe in the Business Cycle
Toralf Pusch, Ingmar Kumpmann
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 4,
2011
Abstract
Social security revenues are influenced by business cycle movements. In order to
support the working of automatic stabilizers it would be necessary to calculate social insurance contribution rates independently from the state of the business cycle. This paper investigates whether European countries set social contribution rates according to such a rule. By means of VAR estimations, country-specific effects can be analyzed – in contrast to earlier studies which used a panel design. As a result, some countries under investigation seem to vary their social contribution rates in a procyclical way.
Artikel Lesen
Determinants of employment - the macroeconomic view
Christian Dreger, Heinz P. Galler, Ulrich (eds) Walwai
Schriften des IWH,
Nr. 22,
2005
Abstract
The weak performance of the German labour market over the past years has led to a significant unemployment problem. Currently, on average 4.5 mio. people are without a job contract, and a large part of them are long-term unemployed. A longer period of unemployment reduces their employability and aggravates the problem of social exclusion.
The factors driving the evolution of employment have been recently discussed on the workshop Determinanten der Beschäftigung – die makroökonomische Sicht organized jointly by the IAB, Nuremberg, and the IWH, Halle. The present volume contains the papers and proceedings to the policy oriented workshop held in November 2004, 15-16th. The main focus of the contributions is twofold. First, macroeconomic conditions to stimulate output and employment are considered. Second, the impacts of the increasing tax wedge between labour costs and the take home pay are emphasized. In particular, the role of the contributions to the social security system is investigated.
In his introductory address, Ulrich Walwei (IAB) links the unemployment experience to the modest path of economic growth in Germany. In addition, the low employment intensity of GDP growth and the temporary standstill of the convergence process of the East German economy have contributed to the weak labour market performance. In his analysis, Gebhard Flaig (ifo Institute, München) stresses the importance of relative factor price developments. A higher rate of wage growth leads to a decrease of the employment intensity of production, and correspondingly to an increase of the threshold of employment. Christian Dreger (IWH) discusses the relevance of labour market institutions like employment protection legislation and the structure of the wage bargaining process on the labour market outcome. Compared to the current setting, policies should try to introduce more flexibility in labour markets to improve the employment record. The impact of interest rate shocks on production is examined by the paper of Boris Hofmann (Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt). According to the empirical evidence, monetary policy cannot explain the modest economic performance in Germany. György Barabas and Roland Döhrn (RWI Essen) have simulated the effects of a world trade shock on output and employment. The relationships have been fairly stable over the past years, even in light of the increasing globalization. Income and employment effects of the German tax reform in 2000 are discussed by Peter Haan and Viktor Steiner (DIW Berlin). On the base of a microsimulation model, household gains are determined. Also, a positive relationship between wages and labour supply can be established. Michael Feil und Gerd Zika (IAB) have examined the employment effects of a reduction of the contribution rates to the social security system. To obtain robust results, the analysis is done under alternative financing scenarios and with different macroeconometric models. The impacts of allowances of social security contributions on the incentives to work are discussed by Wolfgang Meister and Wolfgang Ochel (ifo München). According to their study, willingness to work is expected to increase especially at the lower end of the income distribution. The implied loss of contributions could be financed by higher taxes.
Artikel Lesen