Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area
Mathias Trabandt, Günter Coenen, Roland Straub
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings,
Nr. 3,
2012
Abstract
How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of the European Central Bank's New Area-Wide Model with a rich specification of the fiscal sector. A detailed modeling of the fiscal sector and the incorporation of as many as eight fiscal time series appear pivotal for our result.
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Protect and Survive? Did Capital Controls Help Shield Emerging Markets from the Crisis?
Makram El-Shagi
Economics Bulletin,
Nr. 1,
2012
Abstract
Using a new dataset on capital market regulation, we analyze whether capital controls helped protect emerging markets from the real economic consequences of the 2009 financial and economic crisis. The impact of the crisis is measured by the 2009 forecast error of a panel state space model, which analyzes the business cycle dynamics of 63 middle-income countries. We find that neither capital controls in general nor controls that were specifically targeted to derivatives (that played a crucial role during the crisis) helped shield economies. However, banking regulation that limits the exposure of banks to global risks has been highly successful.
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The Laffer curve revisited
Mathias Trabandt, Harald Uhlig
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Nr. 4,
2011
Abstract
Laffer curves for the US, the EU-14 and individual European countries are compared, using a neoclassical growth model featuring “constant Frisch elasticity” (CFE) preferences. New tax rate data is provided. The US can maximally increase tax revenues by 30% with labor taxes and 6% with capital taxes. We obtain 8% and 1% for the EU-14. There, 54% of a labor tax cut and 79% of a capital tax cut are self-financing. The consumption tax Laffer curve does not peak. Endogenous growth and human capital accumulation affect the results quantitatively. Household heterogeneity may not be important, while transition matters greatly.
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Africa and the Global Financial Crisis - Impact on Economic Reform Processes
R. Adelou Alabi, J. Alemazung, Achim Gutowski, Robert Kappel, Tobias Knedlik, O. Osnachi Uzor, Karl Wohlmuth, Hans H. Bass
African Development Perspectives Yearbook, Vol. 15,
2011
Abstract
In volume XV of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook, the Research Group on African Development Perspectives investigates the impact of the GFC on economic reform processes in Africa. The analysis is structured in such a way so as to reflect the opportunities and dangers of policy reversals in the face of the GFC. The impact of the crisis on different types and forms of governance in the region is considered. The first question is therefore which macro-economic policy instruments have to be applied in order to overcome the crisis and to continue with sustainable development. The second question is how the GFC has affected Africa's external economic relations and if the path of opening up to the world markets is continued. The third question raised is how the crisis has affected social cohesion, impacted on poverty alleviation strategies and the achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). All these questions are discussed in the various contributions which comprise general studies and country case studies. The authors also looked into the role of international financial institutions during and after the crisis. The volume XV of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook is structured into three Units. Unit 1 addresses general issues regarding the impact of the GFC on reform processes in Africa. Unit 2 presents case studies from countries and sub-regions. Unit 3 presents reviews and book notes of current literature focusing on issues of African development perspectives.
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Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?
Makram El-Shagi
North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Nr. 3,
2011
Abstract
The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts based on a number of forecasting techniques from the literature using a panel of ten industrialized countries during the period of 1988 to 2007. To capture expected inflation, we develop a recursive filtering algorithm which extracts unexpected inflation from real interest rate data, even in the presence of diverse risks and a potential Mundell-Tobin-effect.
The extracted unexpected inflation is compared to the forecasting errors of ten
econometric forecasts. Beside the standard AR(p) and ARMA(1,1) models, which
are known to perform best on average, we also employ several Phillips curve based approaches, VAR, dynamic factor models and two simple model avering approaches.
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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2009 in East Germany
Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 3,
2009
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2009. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2009 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing and selected services of Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and East Germany.
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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2010 in East Germany
Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
2010
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2010. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2010 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing and selected services of East Germany.
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IWH FDI Micro Database – Methodological Note – Survey 2008 in East Germany
Andrea Gauselmann, Gabriele Hardt, Björn Jindra, Philipp Marek
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 2,
2008
Abstract
The paper is a methodological report on the IWH-FDI-Micro Database of the year 2008. It contains a motivation of the research questions and describes the availability of existing data sources on multinational affiliates in transition economies. In its core it describes the population, survey sampling and implementation, in depth information on the survey representativeness, and questionnaire design. The 2008 survey covers multinationals affiliates in manufacturing and selected services of East Germany.
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