The relationship between unemployment and output in post-communist countries
Hubert Gabrisch, Herbert Buscher
Post-Communist Economies,
2006
Abstract
Unemployment is still disappointingly high in most Central and East European countries, and might be a reflection of the ongoing adjustment to institutional shocks resulting from systemic transition, or it may be caused by high labour market rigidity, or aggregate demand that is too weak. In this paper we have investigated the dynamics of unemployment and output in those eight post-communist countries, which entered the EU in 2004. We used a model related to Okun’s Law; i.e. the first differences in unemployment rates were regressed on GDP growth rates. We estimated country and panel regressions with instrument variables (TSLS) and applied a few tests to the data and regression results. We assume transition of labour markets to be accomplished when a robust relationship exists between unemployment rate changes and GDP growth. Moreover, the estimated coefficients contain information about labour market rigidity and unemployment thresholds of output growth. Our results suggest that the transition of labour markets can be regarded as completed since unemployment responds to output changes and not to a changing institutional environment that destroys jobs in the state sector. The regression coefficients have demonstrated that a high trend rate of productivity and a high unemployment intensity of output growth have been occurring since 1998. Therefore, we conclude that labour market rigidities do not play an important role in explaining high unemployment rates. However, GDP growth is dominated by productivity progress and the employment-relevant component of aggregate demand is too low to reduce the high level of unemployment substantially.
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Can EU Policy Intervention Help Productivity Catch-Up?
Johannes Stephan, P. Holmes, J. Lopez-Gonzales, C. Stolberg
Closing the EU East-West Productivity Gap - Foreign direct Investment, Competitiveness, and Public Policy,
2006
Abstract
"A product of the Framework V research project, this book addresses one of the key problems facing the EU today: Why is the ‘new’ EU so much poorer than the ‘old’, and how will EU enlargement help to solve the problem? Focusing on the productivity problems underlying the East-West gap, it looks in particular at the role that foreign investment and R&D can play in closing it. Against that background, the book assesses what role proactive development policy might play in attacking the roots of low social productivity. Concluding that there will be a clear-cut process of convergence between East and West, albeit an incomplete one, it finishes with an assessment of the patterns of competitiveness, East and West, that are likely to emerge from this process of incomplete convergence."
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EU-Integration and the Prospects for Catch-up Development in CEECs - The Determinants of the Productivity Gap
Johannes Stephan
Endbericht des EU-Projekts HPSE-CT-2001-00065,
2004
Abstract
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Entwicklungen in der Effizienz- und Produktivitätsforschung - ein Bericht über den 1st Halle Efficiency and Productivity Analysis Workshop –
Christian Growitsch
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
Nr. 7,
2006
Abstract
Produktivitäts- und Effizienzanalysen gewinnen – vor allem unter dem Stichwort benchmarking – in akademischer Forschung, unternehmerischer Praxis und nicht zuletzt aktueller Wirtschaftspolitik zunehmend an Einfluß. So bildet beispielsweise der Effizienzvergleich deutscher Energieversorgungsunternehmen im jüngst vorgestellten Entwurf zur Anreizregulierung der Bundesnetzagentur ein zentrales Element der nationalen Energieregulierung. Aber auch in anderen Disziplinen der Wirtschaftswissenschaften haben diese Analysen Einzug gehalten. Das IWH hat daher gemeinsam mit dem Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Mittel- und Osteuropa (IAMO) einen Workshop zu den Themen Effizienz- und Produktivitätsanalysen, den “1st Halle Efficiency and Productivity Analysis Workshop – HEPAW” veranstaltet. Ziel des Workshops war die Diskussion aktueller theoretischer und empirischer Forschungsergebnisse der Produktivitäts- und Effizienzmessung aus den Disziplinen Volkswirtschaftslehre, Agrarökonomik, Betriebswirtschaftslehre, Operations Research und verwandten Gebiete.
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FDI, Producitivity and Economic Restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe
Judit Hamar, Johannes Stephan
Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Transfer in Transition Countries: Theory – Method of Research – Empirical Evidence,
2005
Abstract
This introducturory chapter of Part II of the book represents a comparative overview of economic development and the changing conditions for and results of FDI as a mechanism of productivity growth in Estonia, Hungary, Poland, the Slovakia-Republic, Slovenia. By summarising briefly the main similarities and differences by countries depend on their different stages in FDI attractiveness, labour productivity, economic development levels and restructuring by technology intensity.
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The unemployment-growth relationship in transition countries
Hubert Gabrisch, Herbert Buscher
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 5,
2005
Abstract
Does the disappointingly high unemployment in Central and East European countries reflect non-completed adjustment to institutional shocks from transition to a market economy, or is it the result of high labour market rigidities, or rather a syndrome of too weak aggregate demand and output? In the case of transitional causes, unemployment is expected to decline over time. Otherwise, it would pose a challenge to the European Union, particular in case of accession countries, for it jeopardizes the ambitious integration plans of, and may trigger excessive migration to the Union. In order to find out which hypothesis holds 15 years after transition has started, we analyze the unemploymentgrowth dynamics in the eight new member countries from Central-Eastern Europe. The study is based on country and panel regressions with instrument variables (TSLS). The results suggest to declare the transition of labour markets as completed; unemployment responds to output and not to a changing institutional environment for job creation. The regression coefficients report a high trend rate of productivity and a high unemployment intensity of output growth since 1998. The conclusion is that labour market rigidities do not to play an important role in explaining high unemployment rates. Rather, GDP growth is dominated by productivity progress, while the employment relevant component of aggregate demand is too low to reduce substantially the high level of unemployment.
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Eastern Germany in the process of catching-up: the role of foreign and Western German investors in technological renewal
Jutta Günther, Oliver Gebhardt
Eastern European Economics,
Nr. 3,
2005
Abstract
Foreign direct investment as a means to support system transformation and the ongoing process of catching-up development has caught researcher’s attention for a number of Central and Eastern European countries. Not much research, however, has been carried out for East Germany in this respect although FDI plays an important role in East Germany too. Descriptive analysis by the use of unique survey data shows that foreign and West German affiliates perform much better with respect to technological capability and labor productivity than domestic companies in East Germany. The results of the regression analysis, however, show that it is not the status of ownership as such that forms a significant determinant of innovativeness in East Germany but rather general firms specific characteristics attached to it such as firm size, export-intensity, technical state of the equipment, and R&D activities. Due to the fact that foreign and West German affiliates perform better with respect to exactly all of these characteristics, they can be considered as a means to support the process of technological renewal and economic development.
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Technology spillovers from external investors in East Germany: no overall effects in favor of domestic firms
Harald Lehmann, Jutta Günther
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 198,
2004
Abstract
The study deals with the question whether external (foreign and West German) investors in East Germany induce technological spillover effects in favor of domestic firms. It ties in with a number of other econometric spillover studies, especially for transition economies, which show rather mixed and inconclusive results so far. Different from existing spillover analyses, this study allows for a much deeper regional breakdown up to Raumordnungsregionen and uses a branch classification that explicitly considers intermediate and investment good linkages. The regression results show no positive correlation between the presence of external investors and domestic firms’ productivity, no matter which regional breakdown is looked at (East Germany as a whole, federal states, or Raumordnungsregionen). Technology spillovers which may exist in particular cases are obviously not strong enough to increase the domestic firms’ overall productivity.
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Progress reports from the project "Productivity Gap"
Johannes Stephan
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 3,
2004
Abstract
The project assesses the roles played by determinants of productivity gaps between Accession Countries in Central East Europe and the more advanced countries in Western Europe. The focus is on the respective weights of determinants and their influence on the potentials for future productivity catch-up.
The convenient feature about assessing productivity levels is that they inform us about the narrowing or divergence of income gaps, provide an indication of international competitiveness, and the sustainability of growth paths (technological development).
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Innovation cooperation: experiences from East and West Germany
Jutta Günther
Science and Public Policy,
2004
Abstract
This paper deals with innovation cooperation as a means to support the ongoing catch-up process of the East German economy. Against prevalent beliefs, it can be shown that East German enterprises are more often involved in innovation co-operation than West German firms, and differences in cooperation partner priorities only reflect the given structural differences between the two regions. While cooperating enterprises in East and West Germany are clearly more innovative than their non-cooperating counterparts, a productivity advantage of these firms is (so far) only observable in West Germany. Reasons for this surprising finding are discussed.
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