Measuring the Indirect Effects of Adverse Employer Behaviour on Worker Productivity – A Field Experiment
Matthias Heinz, Sabrina Jeworrek, Vanessa Mertins, Heiner Schumacher, Matthias Sutter
Economic Journal,
Nr. 632,
2020
Abstract
We conduct a field experiment to study how worker productivity is affected if employers act adversely towards their co-workers. Our employees work for two shifts in a call centre. In our main treatment, we lay off some workers before the second shift. Compared to two control treatments, we find that the lay-off reduces the productivity of unaffected workers by 12%. We find suggestive evidence that this result is not driven by altered beliefs about the job or the management’s competence, but caused by the workers’ perception of unfair employer behaviour. The latter interpretation is confirmed in a prediction experiment with professional HR managers. Our results suggest that the price for adverse employer behaviour goes well beyond the potential tit for tat of directly affected workers.
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Employment Effects of Introducing a Minimum Wage: The Case of Germany
Oliver Holtemöller, Felix Pohle
Economic Modelling,
July
2020
Abstract
Income inequality has been a major concern of economic policy makers for several years. Can minimum wages help to mitigate inequality? In 2015, the German government introduced a nationwide statutory minimum wage to reduce income inequality by improving the labour income of low-wage employees. However, the employment effects of wage increases depend on time and region specific conditions and, hence, they cannot be known in advance. Because negative employment effects may offset the income gains for low-wage employees, it is important to evaluate minimum-wage policies empirically. We estimate the employment effects of the German minimum-wage introduction using panel regressions on the state-industry-level. We find a robust negative effect of the minimum wage on marginal and a robust positive effect on regular employment. In terms of the number of jobs, our results imply a negative overall effect. Hence, low-wage employees who are still employed are better off at the expense of those who have lost their jobs due to the minimum wage.
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Firm Productivity Report
Johannes Amlung, Tommaso Bighelli, Roman Blyzniuk, Marco Christophori, Jonathan Deist, Filippo di Mauro, Annalisa Ferrando, Mirja Hälbig, Peter Haug, Sergio Inferrera, Tibor Lalinsky, Phillip Meinen, Marc Melitz, Matthias Mertens, Ottavia Papagalli, Verena Plümpe, Roberta Serafini
CompNet - The Competitive Research Network,
2020
Abstract
As we enter a second phase of the COVID-pandemic, in which we attempt to reopen economies and foster growth, investigating the efficiency and productivity of firms becomes essential if we wish to design the appropriate policies. The 2020 Flagship Firm Productivity report provides a comprehensive account of how productivity is changing –and what is driving those changes –in Europe, drawing from granular firm-level information.Although it was written before the crisis erupted, this report can therefore offer critical insights to current policymaking andprovides grounds for future research.
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Democracy and Credit
Manthos D. Delis, Iftekhar Hasan, Steven Ongena
Journal of Financial Economics,
Nr. 2,
2020
Abstract
Does democratization reduce the cost of credit? Using global syndicated loan data from 1984 to 2014, we find that democratization has a sizable negative effect on loan spreads: a 1-point increase in the zero-to-ten Polity IV index of democracy shaves at least 19 basis points off spreads, but likely more. Reversals to autocracy hike spreads more strongly. Our findings are robust to the comprehensive inclusion of relevant controls, to the instrumentation with regional waves of democratization, and to a battery of other sensitivity tests. We thus highlight the lower cost of loans as one relevant mechanism through which democratization can affect economic development.
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Coal Phase-out in Germany – Implications and Policies for Affected Regions
Pao-Yu Oei, Hauke Hermann, Philipp Herpich, Oliver Holtemöller, Benjamin Lünenbürger, Christoph Schult
Energy,
April
2020
Abstract
The present study examines the consequences of the planned coal phase-out in Germany according to various phase-out pathways that differ in the ordering of power plant closures. Soft-linking an energy system model with an input-output model and a regional macroeconomic model simulates the socio-economic effects of the phase-out in the lignite regions, as well as in the rest of Germany. The combination of two economic models offers the advantage of considering the phase-out from different perspectives and thus assessing the robustness of the results. The model results show that the lignite coal regions will exhibit losses in output, income and population, but a faster phase-out would lead to a quicker recovery. Migration to other areas in Germany and demographic changes will partially compensate for increasing unemployment, but support from federal policy is also necessary to support structural change in these regions.
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Does Working at a Start-Up Pay Off?
Daniel Fackler, Lisa Hölscher, Claus Schnabel, Antje Weyh
Abstract
Using representative linked employer-employee data for Germany, this paper analyzes short- and long-run differences in labor market performance of workers joining startups instead of incumbent firms. Applying entropy balancing and following individuals over ten years, we find huge and long-lasting drawbacks from entering a start-up in terms of wages, yearly income, and (un)employment. These disadvantages hold for all groups of workers and types of start-ups analyzed. Although our analysis of different subsequent career paths highlights important heterogeneities, it does not reveal any strategy through which workers joining start-ups can catch up with the income of similar workers entering incumbent firms.
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Managerial Effect or Firm Effect: Evidence from the Private Debt Market
Bill Francis, Iftekhar Hasan, Yun Zhu
Financial Review,
Nr. 1,
2020
Abstract
This paper provides evidence that the managerial effect is a key determinant of firms’ cost of capital, in the context of private debt contracting. Applying the novel empirical method developed by an earlier study to a large sample that tracks the job movement of top managers, we find that the managerial effect is a critical and significant factor that explains a large part of the variation in loan contract terms more accurately than firm fixed effects. Additional evidence shows that banks “follow” managers when they change jobs and offer loan contracts with preferential terms to their new firms.
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12.02.2020 • 2/2020
Ursachen von Populismus: IWH beginnt internationales Forschungsprojekt
Hat das Erstarken von populistischen Parteien ökonomische Ursachen? Diese brisante Frage untersucht das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) ab sofort federführend zusammen mit Forschenden aus England, Schottland und Tschechien. Die VolkswagenStiftung fördert das interdisziplinäre Projekt für vier Jahre mit knapp einer Million Euro.
Steffen Müller
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Does Machine Learning Help us Predict Banking Crises?
Johannes Beutel, Sophia List, Gregor von Schweinitz
Journal of Financial Stability,
December
2019
Abstract
This paper compares the out-of-sample predictive performance of different early warning models for systemic banking crises using a sample of advanced economies covering the past 45 years. We compare a benchmark logit approach to several machine learning approaches recently proposed in the literature. We find that while machine learning methods often attain a very high in-sample fit, they are outperformed by the logit approach in recursive out-of-sample evaluations. This result is robust to the choice of performance metric, crisis definition, preference parameter, and sample length, as well as to using different sets of variables and data transformations. Thus, our paper suggests that further enhancements to machine learning early warning models are needed before they are able to offer a substantial value-added for predicting systemic banking crises. Conventional logit models appear to use the available information already fairly efficiently, and would for instance have been able to predict the 2007/2008 financial crisis out-of-sample for many countries. In line with economic intuition, these models identify credit expansions, asset price booms and external imbalances as key predictors of systemic banking crises.
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Kurzfristige ökonomische Effekte eines „Brexit“ auf die deutsche Wirtschaft - Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Andrej Drygalla, Stefan Gebauer, Oliver Holtemöller, Martina Kämpfe, Axel Lindner, Claus Michelsen, Malte Rieth, Thore Schlaak
IWH Online,
Nr. 3,
2019
Abstract
Viele Fragen rund um den Brexit sind weiterhin offen. Es kann nicht ausgeschlossen werden, dass sich Großbritannien und die Europäische Union nicht auf einen Austrittsvertrag einigen können. Dann könnte es zu einem sogenannten harten Brexit (No-Deal Brexit) kommen. Wir haben die kurzfristigen Effekte eines harten Brexit für die deutsche Wirtschaft untersucht. Effekte über den Handelskanal werden zunächst auf Basis einer Input-Output-Analyse der internationalen und sektoralen Verflechtungen auf 0,3% in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt geschätzt. Diese Größenordnung ergibt sich auch aus dem internationalen Konjunkturmodell des IWH, mit dem auch makroökonomische Rückwirkungen berücksichtigt werden. Mit einem harten Brexit entstünde neben den Handelsbarrieren ein erhebliches Verunsicherungspotenzial für Unternehmer und private Haushalte. Dies wirkt sich nachfrageseitig negativ auf die Investitionstätigkeit und den privaten Verbrauch aus. Für sich genommen belaufen sich diese Effekte auf 0,1% des Bruttoinlandsproduktes. Insgesamt könnte das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt in den ein bis zwei Jahren nach einem harten Brexit um mehrere zehntel Prozentpunkte gedämpft werden. Am stärksten wäre wohl die Automobilbranche betroffen. Empfehlungen für diskretionäre konjunkturpolitische Maßnahmen, die auf die Dämpfung der kurzfristigen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte oder auf einzelne Wirtschaftszweige abzielen, lassen sich daraus nicht ableiten. Die automatischen Stabilisatoren sind angesichts der erwarteten Größenordnung der Effekte ausreichend.
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