Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association
Swiss National Bank
in: German Economic Review, No. 4, 2019
In this paper, we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real‐time or latest‐available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed‐frequency models and real‐time data to reassess the role of surveys and financial data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real‐time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when obtaining the optimal combination of soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the role of survey information.
in: Empirical Economics, No. 2, 2018
In this paper, we investigate whether there are benefits in disaggregating GDP into its components when nowcasting GDP. To answer this question, we conduct a realistic out-of-sample experiment that deals with the most prominent problems in short-term forecasting: mixed frequencies, ragged-edge data, asynchronous data releases and a large set of potential information. We compare a direct leading indicator-based GDP forecast with two bottom-up procedures—that is, forecasting GDP components from the production side or from the demand side. Generally, we find that the direct forecast performs relatively well. Among the disaggregated procedures, the production side seems to be better suited than the demand side to form a disaggregated GDP nowcast.
in: Applied Economics Letters, No. 3, 2016
In this article, we examine the effect of estimation biases – introduced by model misspecification – on the impulse responses analysis for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Thereby, we use full and limited information estimators to estimate a misspecified DSGE model and calculate impulse response functions (IRFs) based on the estimated structural parameters. It turns out that IRFs based on full information techniques can be unreliable under misspecification.
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 14, 2009
This paper assesses whether the economy of East Germany is catching up with the West German region in terms of welfare. While the primary measure for convergence and catching up is per capita output, we also look at other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rates, wage rates, and production levels in the manufacturingsector. In contrast to existing studies of convergence between regions of reunified Germany, our approach is purely based upon the time series dimension and is thus directly focused on the catching up process in East Germany as a region. Our testing setup includes standard ADF unit root tests as well as unit root tests that endogenously allow for a break in the deterministic component of the process. In our analysis, we find evidence of catching up for East Germany for most of the indicators. However, convergence speed is slow, and thus it can be expected that the catching up process will take further decades until the regional gap is closed.
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 10, 2008
This paper evaluates the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and its hybrid variant within a limited information framework for Germany. The main interest rests on the average frequency of price re-optimization of firms. We use the labor income share as the driving variable and consider a source of real rigidity by allowing for a fixed firm-specific capital stock. A GMM estimation strategy is employed as well as an identification robust method that is based upon the Anderson-Rubin statistic. We find out that the German Phillips Curve is purely forward looking. Moreover, our point estimates are consistent with the view that firms re-optimize prices every two to three quarters. While these estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view, the uncertainties around these estimates are very large and also consistent with perfect nominal price rigidity where firms never re-optimize prices. This analysis also offers some explanations why previous results for the German NKPC based on GMM differ considerably. First, standard GMM results are very sensitive to the way how orthogonality conditions are formulated. Additionally, model misspecifications may be left undetected by conventional J tests. Taken together, this analysis points out the need for identification robust methods to get reliable estimates for the NKPC.
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 9, 2008
Diese Arbeit beschreibt das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: ein auf Quartalsdaten gestütztes, strukturelles Modell für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft. Der Beitrag konzentriert sich auf die Spezifikation und Schätzungen der angebotsseitigen Aspekte des Modells. Dieser Ansatz gewährleistet ein theoretisch fundiertes langfristiges Modellgleichgewicht. Somit verbindet das Modell kurzfristig gewünschte Prognoseeigenschaften mit langfristigen theoretischen Anforderungen. Für einige makroökonomische Aggregate werden kurz- bis langfristige Auswirkungen von Angebots- und Nachfrageschocks dargestellt. Zudem werden durch Modellsimulationen die Auswirkungen außenwirtschaftlicher Schocks auf das Gesamtmodell illustriert.
