07.10.2016 • 43/2016
IWH-Bauumfrage im dritten Quartal 2016: Ostdeutsches Baugewerbe in glänzender Stimmung
Das Geschäftsklima im ostdeutschen Baugewerbe hat sich laut Umfrage des IWH im Sommer 2016 nochmals verbessert. Sowohl die Lage als auch die Aussichten erreichen neue Höchstwerte seit Beginn der Umfrage im Jahr 1993. Dabei setzt die Geschäftslage ihren Höhenflug vom Frühjahr weiter fort. Die Geschäftsaussichten, die zunächst dreimal in Folge auf hohem Niveau stagnierten, lassen nun auf eine weitere Verbesserung der Lage im nächsten halben Jahr schließen.
Brigitte Loose
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05.10.2016 • 42/2016
International young researchers at IWH
Scientific insights do not stop at national borders and have to be equally accessible for women and men. “Whoever wants to do world-class research has to look beyond his own nose”, says Reint E. Gropp, president of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association. He himself received his PhD and did research in the US for several years.
Reint E. Gropp
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29.09.2016 • 41/2016
Auch der Osten ist im Aufschwung – Implikationen der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2016 für Ostdeutschland
Für das Jahr 2016 prognostiziert das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) einen Anstieg des ostdeutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 1,8% (Gemeinschaftsdiagnose für Deutschland insgesamt: 1,9%). Maßgeblicher Treiber ist wie in Deutschland insgesamt die Binnennachfrage. Insbesondere profitiert die Wirtschaft von der hohen Dynamik in Berlin, Brandenburg und Sachsen. Die Arbeitsproduktivität dürfte in diesem Jahr im Osten wohl etwas schneller als im Westen steigen; somit wird ein kleiner Fortschritt bei der ökonomischen Konvergenz erreicht.
Oliver Holtemöller
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29.09.2016 • 40/2016
Joint Economic Forecast: German Economy on Track – Economic Policy needs to be Realigned
Thanks to a stable job market and solid consumption, the German economy is experiencing a moderate upswing. The GDP is expected to increase by 1.9 percent this year, 1.4 percent in 2017, and 1.6 percent in 2018, according to the Gemeinschaftsdiagnose (GD, joint economic forecast) that was prepared by five of Europe’s leading economic research institutes on behalf of the Federal Government. The most recent GD, which was released in April, predicted a GDP growth rate of 1.6 percent for 2016 and 1.5 percent for 2017.
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22.09.2016 • 39/2016
Strong Financial Literacy could Lead to More Self-employment
The probability that a person is self-employed also depends on how much financial literacy they have. A new study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association recently confirmed this correlation.
Walter Hyll
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09.09.2016 • 38/2016
The Perception of Financial Inferiority Nurtures Negative Attitudes Towards Foreigners
When people feel that their own economic status is inferior to the economic status of a relevant peer group, it becomes more likely that they develop negative attitudes towards foreigners. This link was found in a new study of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association. The effect is particularly strong with respect to foreigners from low-wage countries.
Walter Hyll
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09.09.2016 • 37/2016
Comment: IWH President Reint E. Gropp: ECB resists its critics and maintains its asset purchase programme. Leaving the option for a further extension is completely reasonable.
Some observers, including recently a number of major banks, are criticising the European Central Bank (ECB) for maintaining its asset purchase program, currently scheduled to run until March of 2017 and leaving the option open to extend it further.
Reint E. Gropp
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08.09.2016 • 36/2016
IWH-Konjunkturbarometer Ostdeutschland: Konjunktur zieht nach schwachem Start in das Jahr 2016 an
Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der ostdeutschen Flächenländer ist von April bis Juni 2016 – saisonbereinigt nach dem Berliner Verfahren – um 0,5% gegenüber dem schwachen ersten Quartal gestiegen. Damit expandierte die Produktion in den Neuen Bundesländern fast so stark wie in den Alten (0,6%). Der Zuwachs stand auf breiter Basis. Sowohl das Produzierende Gewerbe als auch der Dienst-leistungssektor trugen dazu bei. Trotz der zuletzt eingetretenen konjunkturellen Beschleunigung blieb der Produktionsanstieg in den ostdeutschen Flächenländern allerdings mit 1,5% im ersten Halbjahr gegenüber dem Westen um reichlich einen halben Prozentpunkt zurück.
Udo Ludwig
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02.09.2016 • 35/2016
The German Economy: Still Robust Despite Sliding Sentiment
The prospects for the German economy are still quite favorable. While sentiment indicators suggest that growth will slow at the end of the year, domestic demand will continue on an upward trend. The German GDP should increase by 1.9% in 2016. For 2017 we expect a lower growth rate of 1.2%“Weaker export volumes and higher growth of imports are the relevant factors for the slowdown”, says Prof Oliver Holtemöller, IWH Vice president. Unemployment will rise a bit as more refugees enter the labor market. Consumer price inflation remains moderate. The general government balance (cyclically ad¬justed as well as unadjusted) will be in surplus in both 2016 and 2017.
Oliver Holtemöller
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11.08.2016 • 34/2016
2016 stress tests: Italian banks don’t look worse than German large commercial banks
The European Banking Authority today presented the results of the 2016 stress tests. They show that most European banks appear more or less stable. “What worries me is, however, that the Italian banks do not look worse than the large German commercial banks,” says Reint E. Gropp, president of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). “It appears that both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank would benefit significantly from an increase in equity. The stress test was also missing two crucial points: One, the effect of a long lasting low interest rate environment on banks was not simulated. And second, the test did not take into consideration that many small institutions could fail at the same time. This is not an unlikely scenario, given how small banks in particular struggle with shrinking interest margins,“ says Gropp. Finally, the stress test should not distract from the urgency to solve the problems in the Italian banking system.
Reint E. Gropp
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