1. Publications
  2. Journal of Banking and Finance, 2/2011
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Exchange Rate Expectations and the Pricing of Chinese Cross-listed Stocks

I show that the price discounts of Chinese cross-listed stocks (American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and H-shares) to their underlying A-shares indicate the expected yuan/US dollar exchange rate. The forecasting models reveal that ADR and H-share discounts predict exchange rate changes more accurately than the random walk and forward exchange rates, particularly at long forecast horizons. Using panel estimations, I find that ADR and H-share investors form their exchange rate expectations according to standard exchange rate theories such as the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect, the risk of competitive devaluations, relative purchasing power parity, uncovered interest rate parity, and the risk of currency crisis.

01. February 2011

Authors Stefan Eichler

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Keywords

stock market exchange rates American Depositary Receipts H-shares cross-listings exchange rate expectations money market instruments China

JEL Classification

F31 F37 G14 G15

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