1. Publications
  2. Empirical Economics, 1/2020
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Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: a MIDAS Approach

Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.

07. January 2020

Authors João Carlos Claudio Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

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Keywords

MIDAS nowcasting East Germany business surveys

JEL Classification

C22 C52 C53 E37 R11

Whom to contact

For Researchers

Dr Katja Heinisch
Dr Katja Heinisch
Research Group Head

If you have any further questions please contact me.

+49 345 7753-836 Request per E-Mail

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Dr Wolfgang Sender
Dr Wolfgang Sender
Head of Public Relations

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