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Inequality in Life and Death

Martin S. Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, Mathias Trabandt
NBER Working Papers, No. 29063, 2021
published in: IMF Economic Review
Abstract
We argue that the Covid epidemic disproportionately affected the economic well-being and health of poor people. To disentangle the forces that generated this outcome, we construct a model that is consistent with the heterogeneous impact of the Covid recession on low- and high-income people. According to our model, two thirds of the inequality in Covid deaths reflect pre-existing inequality in comorbidity rates and access to quality health care. The remaining third, stems from the fact that low-income people work in occupations where the risk of infection is high. Our model also implies that the rise in income inequality generated by the Covid epidemic reflects the nature of the goods that low-income people produce. Finally, we assess the health-income trade-offs associated with fiscal transfers to the poor and mandatory containment policies.
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Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical?

Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Mathias Trabandt
Review of Economic Dynamics, July 2021
Abstract
We argue that wage inertia plays a pivotal role in allowing empirically plausible variants of the standard search and matching model to account for the large countercyclical response of unemployment to shocks.
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Do Activist Hedge Funds Target Female CEOs? The Role of CEO Gender in Hedge Fund Activism

Bill Francis, Iftekhar Hasan, Yinjie (Victor) Shen, Qiang Wu
Journal of Financial Economics, No. 1, 2021
Abstract
Using a comprehensive US hedge fund activism dataset from 2003 to 2018, we find that activist hedge funds are about 52% more likely to target firms with female CEOs compared to firms with male CEOs. We find that firm fundamentals, the existence of a “glass cliff,” gender discrimination bias, and hedge fund activists’ inherent characteristics do not explain the observed gender effect. We also find that the transformational leadership style of female CEOs is a plausible explanation for this gender effect: instead of being self-defensive, female CEOs are more likely to communicate and cooperate with hedge fund activists to achieve intervention goals. Finally, we find that female-led targets experience greater increases in market and operational performance subsequent to hedge fund targeting.
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Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Fragility: Empirical Evidence from the OECD

Makram El-Shagi, Gregor von Schweinitz
Journal of International Money and Finance, July 2021
Abstract
In this paper, we use local projections to investigate the impact of consolidation shocks on GDP growth, conditional on the fragility of government finances. Based on a database of fiscal plans in OECD countries, we show that spending shocks are less detrimental than tax-based consolidation. In times of fiscal fragility, our results indicate strongly that governments should consolidate through surprise policy changes rather than announcements of consolidation at a later horizon.
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Executives with Customer Experience and Firm Performance in the B2B Context

Yiwei Fang, Cong Feng, Iftekhar Hasan, Jiong Sun
European Journal of Marketing, No. 7, 2021
Abstract
Purpose: This paper aims to examine the presence of an executive with customer experience (ECE) in a supplier firm’s top management team (TMT). The role of ECE presence remains understudied in the marketing literature. This study attempts to examine the relationship between ECE presence and firm performance. Design/methodology/approach: This paper draws on the resource-based view of the firm and adopts a panel firm fixed effects estimator to test the proposed hypotheses. The empirical analysis uses a sample of 1,974 firm-year observations with 489 unique supplier firms. Selection-induced endogeneity is mitigated through the Heckman procedure. Findings: ECE presence improves firm performance. Additionally, firms benefit less from ECE presence if a board member with customer experience (BCE) is also present, if a chief executive officer commands a higher pay slice (compared to other executives), and if a TMT is more functionally diversified. However, ECE presence is particularly beneficial if the overall economy is in contraction. Comparing the functional positions held by ECEs reveals that ECE in the marketing function (as a chief marketing officer) offers the largest benefit to an average supplier firm. ECE presence is also associated with other firm outcomes (e.g. bankruptcy odds, innovation and customer orientation).
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International Trade Barriers and Regional Employment: The Case of a No-Deal Brexit

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Oliver Holtemöller
Journal of Economic Structures, No. 11, 2021
Abstract
We use the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) combined with regional sectoral employment data to estimate the potential regional employment effects of international trade barriers. We study the case of a no-deal Brexit in which imports to the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) would be subject to tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. First, we derive the decline in UK final goods imports from the EU from industry-specific international trade elasticities, tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. Using input–output analysis, we estimate the potential output and employment effects for 56 industries and 43 countries on the national level. The absolute effects would be largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK, such as Germany and France. However, there would also be large countries outside the EU which would be heavily affected via global value chains, such as China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) would be largest in Ireland followed by Belgium. In a second step, we split up the national effects on the NUTS-2 level for EU member states and additionally on the county (NUTS-3) level for Germany. The share of affected workers varies between 0.03% and 3.4% among European NUTS-2 regions and between 0.15% and 0.4% among German counties. A general result is that indirect effects via global value chains, i.e., trade in intermediate inputs, are more important than direct effects via final demand.
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Unternehmensinsolvenzen seit Ausbruch der Pandemie

Steffen Müller
Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 2, 2021
Abstract
Die Insolvenzzahlen sind trotz Corona-Krise stark gesunken. Aufgrund zahlreicher Großinsolvenzen wie etwa von Esprit, Hallhuber oder Wirecard war das Jahr 2020 bezogen auf die Zahl der betroffenen Beschäftigten trotzdem ein schwieriges Jahr. Eine Insolvenzwelle mit vielen gefährdeten Jobs ab Sommer 2021 ist aufgrund staatlicher Unterstützungsmaßnahmen und abwartendem Verhalten der Unternehmen eher unwahrscheinlich. Soweit es die Pandemielage zulässt, sollten Stützungsmaßnahmen bereits im Jahr 2021 auf den Prüfstand, um eine „Zombifizierung“ der Wirtschaft zu verhindern.
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Projektion der Ausgaben für die Beamtenversorgung in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2080

Oliver Holtemöller, Götz Zeddies
Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 2, 2021
Abstract
Seit einigen Jahren steigt die Zahl der Pensionäre in Deutschland. Der demographische Wandel dürfte die Versorgungsausgaben von Bund, Ländern und Gemeinden in den kommenden Jahren und Jahrzehnten deutlich zunehmen lassen. In diesem Beitrag wird die Zahl der Versorgungsempfänger bis zum Jahr 2080 vorausgeschätzt und die Versorgungsausgaben werden projiziert. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich ein teilweise deutlicher Anstieg der Versorgungsausgaben der Gebietskörperschaften. Im Verhältnis zum erwarteten Zuwachs des Steueraufkommens fällt dieser jedoch beim Bund vergleichsweise moderat und auch bei Ländern und Gemeinden nicht übermäßig hoch aus. Dies geht unter anderem auf die Annahme zurück, dass der Anteil der Beamten an der Gesamtbevölkerung in Zukunft konstant bleibt. Dagegen steht die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung größeren finanziellen Herausforderungen gegenüber, weil der Anteil der Rentenempfänger an der Gesamtbevölkerung in den kommenden Jahren zunehmen wird.
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Aktuelle Trends: Auf dem Weg zur europäischen Bankenunion: Verzögerte Umsetzung der Abwicklungsrichtlinie

Michael Koetter, Thomas Krause, Eleonora Sfrappini, Lena Tonzer
Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 2, 2021
Abstract

In Reaktion auf die Erfahrungen aus der letzten Finanzmarktkrise veröffentlichte die Europäische Kommission im Mai 2014 die Richtlinie zur Sanierung und Abwicklung von Kreditinstituten (Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, BRRD). Die Richtlinie legt Regeln zur Abwicklung und Restrukturierung von Banken einschließlich eines Bail-in-Mechanismus fest, der das Verlustrisiko beim Scheitern einer Bank vorrangig deren Anteilseignern und Gläubigern aufbürdet.

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Cultural Resilience, Religion, and Economic Recovery: Evidence from the 2005 Hurricane Season

Iftekhar Hasan, Stefano Manfredonia, Felix Noth
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 9, 2021
published in: Economic Journal
Abstract
This paper investigates the critical role of religion in the economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. Exploiting the 2005 hurricane season in the southeast United States, we document that establishments in counties with higher religious adherence rates saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005-2010. Our results further suggest that a particular religious denomination does not drive the effect. We observe that different aspects of religion, such as adherence, shared experiences from ancestors, and institutionalised features, all drive the effect on recovery. Our results matter since they underline the importance of cultural characteristics like religion during and after economic crises.
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