Measuring Income Tax Evasion Using Bank Credit: Evidence from Greece
Nikolaos Artavanis, Adair Morse, Margarita Tsoutsoura
Quarterly Journal of Economics,
No. 2,
2016
Abstract
We document that in semiformal economies, banks lend to tax-evading individuals based on the bank’s assessment of the individual’s true income. This observation leads to a novel approach to estimate tax evasion. We use microdata on household credit from a Greek bank and replicate the bank underwriting model to infer the banks estimate of individuals’ true income. We estimate that 43–45% of self-employed income goes unreported and thus untaxed. For 2009, this implies €28.2 billion of unreported income, implying forgone tax revenues of over €11 billion or 30% of the deficit. Our method innovation allows for estimating the industry distribution of tax evasion in settings where uncovering the incidence of hidden cash transactions is difficult using other methods. Primary tax-evading industries are professional services—medicine, law, engineering, education, and media. We conclude with evidence that contemplates the importance of institutions, paper trail, and political willpower for the persistence of tax evasion.
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The Political Determinants of Government Bond Holdings
Stefan Eichler, Timo Plaga
Abstract
This paper analyzes the link between political factors and sovereign bond holdings of US investors in 60 countries over the 2003-2013 period. We find that, in general, US investors hold more bonds in countries with few political constraints on the government. Moreover, US investors respond to increased uncertainty around major elections by reducing government bond holdings. These effects are particularly significant in democratic regimes and countries with sound institutions, which enable effective implementation of fiscal consolidation measures or economic reforms. In countries characterized by high current default risk or a sovereign default history, US investors show a tendency towards favoring higher political constraints as this makes sovereign default more difficult for the government. Political instability, characterized by the fluctuation in political veto players, reduces US investment in government bonds. This effect is more pronounced in countries with low sovereign solvency.
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Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D? Evidence from US States
Viktor Slavtchev, Simon Wiederhold
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
No. 2,
2016
Abstract
Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini. This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation. In a theoretical model, we first show that a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private R&D. Using unique data on federal procurement in US states and performing panel fixed-effects estimations, we find support for the model's prediction of a positive R&D effect of the technological content of government procurement. Instrumental-variable estimations suggest a causal interpretation of our findings.
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To Separate or not to Separate Investment from Commercial Banking? An Empirical Analysis of Attention Distortion under Multiple Tasks
Reint E. Gropp, K. Park
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 2,
2016
Abstract
In the wake of the 2008/2009 financial crisis, a number of policy reports (Vickers, Liikanen, Volcker) proposed to separate investment banking from commercial banking to increase financial stability. This paper empirically examines one theoretical justification for these proposals, namely attention distortion under multiple tasks as in Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991). Universal banks can be viewed as combining two different tasks (investment banking and commercial banking) in the same organization. We estimate pay-performance sensitivities for different segments within universal banks and for pure investment and commercial banks. We show that the pay-performance sensitivity is higher in investment banking than in commercial banking, no matter whether it is organized as part of a universal bank or in a separate institution. Next, the paper shows that relative pay-performance sensitivities of investment and commercial banking are negatively related to the quality of the loan portfolio in universal banks. Depending on the specification, we obtain a reduction in problem loans when investment banking is removed from commercial banks of up to 12 percent. We interpret the evidence to imply that the higher pay-performance sensitivity in investment banking directs the attention of managers away from commercial banking within universal banks, consistent with Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991). Separation of investment banking and commercial banking may indeed be associated with a reduction in risk in commercial banking.
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Persönliche Beziehungen, der Transfer von akademischem Wissen und der Standort von Gründungen aus Hochschulen
S. Heblich, Viktor Slavtchev
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2015
Abstract
In dieser Studie wird die Bedeutung von persönlichen Beziehungen zwischen Unternehmensgründern aus Hochschulen und Hochschulforschern für die Entscheidung der Gründer, sich in der Region der Heimathochschule niederzulassen, untersucht. Am Beispiel von Gründungen aus Hochschulen in Regionen mit mehreren Hochschulen kann gezeigt werden, dass bei der Entscheidung der Gründer, in der Region zu bleiben, der Nähe zur Heimatfakultät größere Bedeutung zukommt als der Nähe zu vergleichbaren Fakultäten an anderen lokalen Hochschulen. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass für den Zugang zu akademischem Wissen und Ressourcen und deren Transfer in Privatunternehmen über das einfache lokale Vorhandensein von Hochschulen hinaus persönliche Beziehungen bedeutsam sind. Dies hat Implikationen für die Rolle der Hochschulen als Standortvorteil für Unternehmen, die von akademischem Wissen und Ressourcen profitieren können oder darauf angewiesen sind.
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24.09.2015 • 38/2015
German Households Benefit from Low Interest Environment
Calculations of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association show that the average household in Germany has benefited from the low policy rate environment. The average return on their portfolio was higher than in the pre-crisis period while at the same time, they benefited from lower interest on new loans. Households in Germany had a total Euro benefit of more than 364 billion Euro over a five-year period relative to 2003 to 2007. Increases in stock prices and real estate prices over-compensate lower interest rates on savings accounts, despite their relatively low share in households’ portfolios. There are benefits across the income distribution. Households that do not own real estate lost though, but their losses are very small at on average about 100 Euro per year.
Reint E. Gropp
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R&D Cooperation with Scientific Institutions: A Difference-in-difference Approach
Gunnar Pippel, V. Seefeld
Economics of Innovation and New Technology,
No. 5,
2016
Abstract
Economists and business managers have long been interested in the impact of research and development (R&D) cooperation with scientific institutions on the innovation performance of firms. Recent research identifies a positive correlation between these two variables. This paper aims to contribute to the identification of the relationship between R&D cooperation with scientific institutions and the product and process innovation performance of firms by using a difference-in-difference approach. In doing so, we distinguish between two different types of scientific institutions: universities and governmental research institutes. For the econometric analyses, we use data from the German Community Innovation Survey. In total, data from up to 560 German service and manufacturing firms are available for the difference-in-difference analyses. The results suggest that R&D cooperation with universities and governmental research institutes has a positive effect on both product innovation and process innovation performance of firms.
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Coordination between Municipalities and Local Non-Municipal Public Units (NMPUs) for Supporting Urban Economic Development: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence for the Example of Universities in Germany
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, J. Hinz
Koordination raumwirksamer Politik: Mehr Effizienz und Wirksamkeit von Politik durch abgestimmte Arbeitsteilung,
2015
Abstract
In zahlreichen europäischen Städten gibt es Versuche, der lokalen Wirtschaftsentwicklung eine neue Richtung zu geben, u.a. durch die Ansiedlung von Nicht-Kommunalen Öffentlichen Einrichtungen (NKOE), z.B. Bundesagenturen, Gerichte, Rechnungshöfe, Landesmuseen oder Universitäten. Allerdings liegen die Kompetenzen für solche NKOE nicht bei den Kommunen, sondern zumeist bei den höheren staatlichen Ebenen. Deshalb haben die Kommunen keinen unmittelbaren Einfluss auf die Ansiedlung von NKOE. Sobald aber eine entsprechende Entscheidung gefallen ist, können die Kommunen die weitere Entwicklung von NKOE begünstigen. Im Beitrag wird zunächst eine Kategorisierung von NKOE durchgeführt, und zwar sowohl gemäß der Bedeutung von NKOE für die lokale Wirtschaftsentwicklung als auch hinsichtlich des Einflusses lokaler Maßnahmen auf die Leistungsfähigkeit von NKOE. Es wird gezeigt, dass Universitäten zu jener Kategorie von NKOE zählen, für die eine Koordination der eigenen Aktivitäten mit jenen der Kommunen besonders wichtig sein dürfte. Die Effekte von Universitäten für die lokale Wirtschaftsentwicklung wurden bereits vielfach diskutiert. Die Fähigkeit der Universitäten, das für ihre Effektivität erforderliche Humankapital zu attrahieren, hängt von verschiedenen lokalen Faktoren ab. Folglich gibt es eine reziproke Beziehung zwischen Kommunen und Universitäten. Eine Koordinierung der jeweiligen Aktivitäten wäre deshalb für beide Seiten von Vorteil. Dies gilt z.B. für den Bereich der Informationspolitik. Eine Kommune sollte nach innen wie nach außen die Vorzüge der örtlichen Universitäten kommunizieren; umgekehrt sollte auch eine Universität die Stärken des lokalen Umfelds deutlich machen. Da für den Bereich der Informationspolitik empirische Daten leicht zugänglich sind, konzentriert sich der empirische Teil des Beitrags auf eine empirische Untersuchung der Internetpräsentationen ausgewählter Städte und Universitäten. Es zeigt sich, dass in den meisten betrachteten Städten die Koordinierung zwischen Kommunen und Universitäten zu wünschen übrig lässt. Eine Verbesserung dieser Situation ließe sich z.B. durch die Einführung
finanzieller Anreizmechanismen erreichen.
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Returns to Skills around the World: Evidence from PIAAC
Eric A. Hanushek, Guido Schwerdt, Simon Wiederhold, Ludger Woessmann
European Economic Review,
January
2015
Abstract
Existing estimates of the labor-market returns to human capital give a distorted picture of the role of skills across different economies. International comparisons of earnings analyses rely almost exclusively on school attainment measures of human capital, and evidence incorporating direct measures of cognitive skills is mostly restricted to early-career workers in the United States. Analysis of the new PIAAC survey of adult skills over the full lifecycle in 23 countries shows that the focus on early-career earnings leads to underestimating the lifetime returns to skills by about one quarter. On average, a one-standard-deviation increase in numeracy skills is associated with an 18 percent wage increase among prime-age workers. But this masks considerable heterogeneity across countries. Eight countries, including all Nordic countries, have returns between 12 and 15 percent, while six are above 21 percent with the largest return being 28 percent in the United States. Estimates are remarkably robust to different earnings and skill measures, additional controls, and various subgroups. Instrumental-variable models that use skill variation stemming from school attainment, parental education, or compulsory-schooling laws provide even higher estimates. Intriguingly, returns to skills are systematically lower in countries with higher union density, stricter employment protection, and larger public-sector shares.
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Do Better Pre-migration Skills Accelerate Immigrants' Wage Assimilation?
Boris Hirsch, Elke J. Jahn, Ott Toomet, Daniela Hochfellner
Labour Economics,
2014
Abstract
This paper analyzes wage assimilation of ethnic German immigrants to Germany using unique administrative data that include an administrative estimate of immigrants' expected wage in Germany at the time of migration. We find that a 10% higher wage potential translates into a 1.6% higher wage in Germany when also controlling for educational attainment, thus pointing at partial transferability of pre-migration skills to the host country's labor market. We also document that wage assimilation is significantly accelerated for immigrants with higher wage potentials. Our results are both in line with complementarities between pre-migration skills and host country-specific human capital and a U-shaped pattern of immigrants' job mobility with initial downgrading and subsequent upgrading.
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