Persönliche Beziehungen, der Transfer von akademischem Wissen und der Standort von Gründungen aus Hochschulen
S. Heblich, Viktor Slavtchev
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2015
Abstract
In dieser Studie wird die Bedeutung von persönlichen Beziehungen zwischen Unternehmensgründern aus Hochschulen und Hochschulforschern für die Entscheidung der Gründer, sich in der Region der Heimathochschule niederzulassen, untersucht. Am Beispiel von Gründungen aus Hochschulen in Regionen mit mehreren Hochschulen kann gezeigt werden, dass bei der Entscheidung der Gründer, in der Region zu bleiben, der Nähe zur Heimatfakultät größere Bedeutung zukommt als der Nähe zu vergleichbaren Fakultäten an anderen lokalen Hochschulen. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass für den Zugang zu akademischem Wissen und Ressourcen und deren Transfer in Privatunternehmen über das einfache lokale Vorhandensein von Hochschulen hinaus persönliche Beziehungen bedeutsam sind. Dies hat Implikationen für die Rolle der Hochschulen als Standortvorteil für Unternehmen, die von akademischem Wissen und Ressourcen profitieren können oder darauf angewiesen sind.
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Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions
Alexander Kriwoluzky, G. J. Müller, M. Wolf
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 18,
2015
Abstract
Membership in a currency union is not irreversible. Exit expectations may emerge during sovereign debt crises, because exit allows countries to reduce their liabilities through a currency redenomination. As market participants anticipate this possibility, sovereign debt crises intensify. We establish this formally within a small open economy model of changing policy regimes. The model permits explosive dynamics of debt and sovereign yields inside currency unions and allows us to distinguish between exit expectations and those of an outright default. By estimating the model on Greek data, we quantify the contribution of exit expectations to the crisis dynamics during 2009 to 2012.
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Monetary-fiscal Policy Interaction and Fiscal Inflation: A Tale of Three Countries
Martin Kliem, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Samad Sarferaz
Abstract
We study the impact of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy on the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation using cross-country data from 1965 to 1999. In a first step, we contrast the monetary-fiscal narrative for Germany, the U.S. and Italy with evidence obtained from simple regression models and a time-varying VAR. We find that the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation is low during periods of an independent central bank and responsible fiscal policy and more pronounced in times of high fiscal budget deficits and accommodative monetary authorities. In a second step, we use an estimated DSGE model to interpret the low-frequency measure structurally and to illustrate the mechanisms through which fiscal actions affect inflation in the long run. The findings from the DSGE model suggest that switches in the monetary-fiscal policy interaction and accompanying variations in the propagation of structural shocks can well account for changes in the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation.
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Monetary Policy and the Transaction Role of Money in the US
Alexander Kriwoluzky, Christian A. Stoltenberg
Economic Journal,
No. 587,
2015
Abstract
The declining importance of money in transactions can explain the well-known fact that US interest rate policy was passive in the pre-Volcker period and active after 1982. We generalise a standard cashless new Keynesian model (Woodford, 2003) by incorporating an explicit transaction role for money. In the pre-Volcker period, we estimate that money did play an important role and determinacy required a passive interest rate policy. However, after 1982, money no longer played an important role in facilitating transactions. Correspondingly, the conventional view prevails and an active policy ensured equilibrium determinacy.
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Monetary Policy under the Microscope: Intra-bank Transmission of Asset Purchase Programs of the ECB
L. Cycon, Michael Koetter
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2015
Abstract
With a unique loan portfolio maintained by a top-20 universal bank in Germany, this study tests whether unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced corporate borrowing costs. We decompose corporate lending rates into refinancing costs, as determined by money markets, and markups that the bank is able to charge its customers in regional markets. This decomposition reveals how banks transmit monetary policy within their organizations. To identify policy effects on loan rate components, we exploit the co-existence of eurozone-wide security purchase programs and regional fiscal policies at the district level. ECB purchase programs reduced refinancing costs significantly, even in an economy not specifically targeted for sovereign debt stress relief, but not loan rates themselves. However, asset purchases mitigated those loan price hikes due to additional credit demand stimulated by regional tax policy and enabled the bank to realize larger economic margins.
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Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Kräftiger Aufschwung dank günstigem Öl und schwachem Euro
Oliver Holtemöller, Ferdinand Fichtner, Roland Döhrn, Timo Wollmershäuser
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 5,
2015
Abstract
In ihrem Frühjahrsgutachten prognostizieren die an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose teilnehmenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute einen Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) um 2,1% im Jahr 2015 und um 1,8% im Jahr 2016. Die Institute korrigieren damit ihre Prognose vom Herbst 2014 erheblich nach oben; vor einem halben Jahr war für 2015 noch eine Veränderungsrate von 1,2% erwartet worden. Ein großer Teil der Revision geht auf eine seit dem Herbst unerwartet deutliche Verbesserung der Rahmenbedingungen für die deutsche Konjunktur zurück. Vor allem der massive Rückgang des Ölpreises stimuliert die deutsche Wirtschaft, aber auch die deutliche Abwertung des Euro, die mit der Ausweitung der Anleiheankaufprogramme der Europäischen Zentralbank einherging.
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Zur Wirtschaftspolitik: Investitionen fördern – aber nicht allein mit mehr öffentlichen Mitteln!
Oliver Holtemöller, Konstantin Kiesel, Axel Lindner, Andreas Schmalzbauer, Götz Zeddies
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
Seit Ausbruch der europäischen Schulden- und Vertrauenskrise stellten sich der Wirtschaftspolitik in Deutschland vermeintlich ganz andere Aufgaben als auf europäischer Ebene. Es herrschte der Eindruck vor, dass Deutschland im Vergleich zu den Krisenländern strukturell gut aufgestellt sei. Der Rückgang der konjunkturellen Dynamik in Deutschland lenkt nunmehr die Aufmerksamkeit auch wieder verstärkt auf wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen im Inland.
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Understanding the Great Recession
Mathias Trabandt, Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin S. Eichenbaum
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does a good job of accounting for the joint behavior of labor and goods markets, as well as inflation, during the Great Recession. According to the model the observed fall in total factor productivity and the rise in the cost of working capital played critical roles in accounting for the small drop in inflation that occurred during the Great Recession.
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The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach
Makram El-Shagi, Sebastian Giesen
Macroeconomic Dynamics,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
We propose a unified identification scheme to identify monetary shocks and track their propagation through the economy. We combine three approaches dealing with the consequences of monetary shocks. First, we adjust a state space version of the P-star type model employing money overhang as the driving force of inflation. Second, we identify the contemporaneous impact of monetary policy shocks by applying a sign restriction identification scheme to the reduced form given by the state space signal equations. Third, to ensure that our results are not distorted by the measurement error exhibited by the official monetary data, we employ the Divisia M4 monetary aggregate provided by the Center for Financial Stability. Our approach overcomes one of the major difficulties of previous models by using a data-driven identification of equilibrium velocity. Thus, we are able to show that a P-star model can fit U.S. data and money did indeed matter in the United States.
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