Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?
Rolf Scheufele
Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
This paper examines the properties of qualitative inflation expectations collected from economic experts for Germany. It describes their characteristics relating to rationality and Granger causality. An out-of-sample simulation study investigates whether this indicator is suitable for inflation forecasting. Results from other standard forecasting models are considered and compared with models employing survey measures. We find that a model using survey expectations outperforms most of the competing models. Moreover, we find some evidence that the survey indicator already contains information from other model types (e. g. Phillips curve models). However, the forecast quality may be further improved by completely taking into account information from some financial indicators.
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Recovery and Beyond: Lessons for Trade Adjustment and Competitiveness
Filippo di Mauro, Benjamin Mandel
ECB E-Book,
May
2011
Abstract
The great trade collapse in the wake of the 2008-9 financial crisis provideda unique insight into the complexities inherent to international markets, and underlined a number of lessons for us to consider as we evaluate the shape of the global trade recovery. While the factors contributing to the crisis were diverse and multifaceted, it is arguable that persisting imbalances across the globe played a role. How will trade imbalances unwind and what is the role for policies influencing international transactions for goods and services? A precursor to answering this question is a broad understanding of how trade flows react to changes in the macroeconomy, and therefore much of this book will focus on recent assessments of the drivers of trade adjustment. A closely related concept affecting the degree to which countries trade is their relative competitive position. To tie in the chapters with the broader policy emphasis on competitiveness, we will also define and evaluate several drivers of international trade competitiveness.
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Distance Functions for Matching in Small Samples
Eva Dettmann, Christian Schmeißer, Claudia Becker
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,
No. 5,
2011
Abstract
The development of ‘standards’ for the application of matching algorithms in empirical evaluation studies is still an outstanding goal. The first step of the matching procedure is the choice of an appropriate distance function. In empirical evaluation situations often the sample sizes are small. Moreover, they consist of variables with different scale levels which have to be considered explicitly in the matching process. A simulation is performed which is directed towards these empirical challenges and supplements former studies in this respect. The choice of the analysed distance functions is determined by the results of former theoretical studies and recommendations in the empirical literature. Thus, two balancing scores (the propensity score and the index score) and the Mahalanobis distance are considered. Additionally, aggregated statistical distance functions not yet used for empirical evaluation are included. The matching outcomes are compared using non-parametric scale-specific tests for identical distributions of the characteristics in the treatment and the control groups. The simulation results show that, in small samples, aggregated statistical distance functions are the better choice for summarising similarities in differently scaled variables compared to the commonly used measures.
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05.08.2010 • 39/2010
Evaluation der Forschungsförderung des Sächsischen Staatsministeriums für Wissenschaft und Kunst (SMWK)
Eine heute veröffentlichte Studie des Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) im Auftrag des Sächsischen Staatsministeriums für Wissenschaft und Kunst (SMWK) evaluiert das Programm „Förderung von Projekten im Forschungsbereich“ des Ministeriums. Das Programm richtet sich an Wissenschaftseinrichtungen in Sachsen. Es zielt auf die Stärkung der Spitzenforschung, der Profilbildung, der Drittmittelfähigkeit, der Internationalisierung sowie der Vernetzung der Wissenschaftseinrichtungen untereinander und mit der Wirtschaft. Gefördert werden grundlagenorientierte Projekte, Geräteausstattungen, Aufenthalte von Gastwissenschaftlern sowie wissenschaftliche Tagungen. Die Finanzierung des Programms erfolgt ausschließlich aus Landesmitteln.
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Evaluierung des Programms des Sächsischen Staatsministeriums für Wissenschaft und Kunst (SMWK) zur Förderung von Projekten im Forschungsbereich
Jutta Günther, Iciar Dominguez Lacasa, Michael Fritsch, Nicole Nulsch, Viktor Slavtchev, Michael Schwartz, Mirko Titze, Katja Wilde
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
Die vorliegende Studie des Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) im Auftrag des Sächsischen Staatsministeriums für Wissenschaft und Kunst (SMWK) evaluiert das Programm „Förderung von Projekten im Forschungsbereich“ des Ministeriums. Das Programm richtet sich an Wissenschaftseinrichtungen in Sachsen. Es zielt auf die Stärkung der Spitzenforschung, der Profilbildung, der Drittmittelfähigkeit, der Internationalisierung sowie der Vernetzung der Wissenschaftseinrichtungen untereinander und mit der Wirtschaft. Gefördert werden grundlagenorientierte Projekte, Geräteausstattungen, Aufenthalte von Gastwissenschaftlern sowie wissenschaftliche Tagungen. Die Finanzierung des Programms erfolgt ausschließlich aus Landesmitteln.
Im Zeitraum 2002 bis 2008 wurden insgesamt 745 Vorhaben mit einem Gesamtvolumen von 20,51 Mio. Euro in 41 Wissenschaftseinrichtungen gefördert. Über 90% der Mittel entfielen auf die Fördergegenstände Projektförderung sowie Geräteausstattung. Befragt wurden 311 für die Fördervorhaben zuständige Wissenschaftler, von denen sich 69% an der Befragung beteiligten. Hinsichtlich der erreichten Effekte nannten die meisten Fördermittelempfänger die „Stärkung der Profilbildung“ (82%, über alle Förderlinien). Bei der Projektförderung sowie der Förderung der Geräteausstattung hoben die Befragten die hohe Wirkung auf die „Stärkung der Drittmittelfähigkeit“ hervor (über 90%). Damit wurden in der Einschätzung der Fördermittelempfänger wesentliche Zielvorgaben des Programms erreicht. Die Erhöhung der Verbundfähigkeit mit der Wirtschaft spielte aus Sicht der Befragten eine untergeordnete Rolle (54% Zustimmung). Der Grund für diesen relativ niedrigen Wert dürfte darin liegen, dass das Förderprogramm vor allem auf grundlagenorientierte Forschung abzielt. Die wissenschaftlichen Tagungen haben einen starken Effekt auf die Vernetzung der Wissenschaftseinrichtungen untereinander, insbesondere mit solchen im Ausland. Damit ist ein weiteres wesentliches Ziel des Programms erreicht worden.
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Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
The paper analyzes leading indicators for GDP and industrial production in Germany. We focus on the performance of single and pooled leading indicators during the pre-crisis and crisis period using various weighting schemes. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single indicator as well as forecast combination methods. In addition, we use an end-of-sample instability test to investigate the stability of forecasting models during the recent financial crisis. We find in general that only a small number of single indicator models were performing well before the crisis. Pooling can substantially increase the reliability of leading indicator forecasts. During the crisis the relative performance of many leading indicator models increased. At short horizons, survey indicators perform best, while at longer horizons financial indicators, such as term spreads and risk spreads, improve relative to the benchmark.
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Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve
Rolf Scheufele
North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
2010
Abstract
This paper evaluates the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and its hybrid variant within a limited information framework for Germany. The main interest resides in the average frequency of price re-optimization by firms. We use the labor income share as the driving variable and consider a source of real rigidity by allowing for a fixed firm-specific capital stock. A GMM estimation strategy is employed as well as an identification robust method based on the Anderson–Rubin statistic. We find that the German Phillips curve is purely forward-looking. Moreover, our point estimates are consistent with the view that firms re-optimize prices every 2–3 quarters. These estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view. But the uncertainties around these estimates are very large and also consistent with perfect nominal price rigidity, where firms never re-optimize prices. This analysis also offers some explanation as to why previous results for the German NKPC based on GMM differ considerably. First, standard GMM results are very sensitive to the way in which orthogonality conditions are formulated. Further, model mis-specifications may be left undetected by conventional J tests. This analysis points out the need for identification robust methods to get reliable estimates for the NKPC.
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Is there a Superior Distance Function for Matching in Small Samples?
Eva Dettmann, Claudia Becker, Christian Schmeißer
Abstract
The study contributes to the development of ’standards’ for the application of matching algorithms in empirical evaluation studies. The focus is on the first step of the matching procedure, the choice of an appropriate distance function. Supplementary o most former studies, the simulation is strongly based on empirical evaluation ituations. This reality orientation induces the focus on small samples. Furthermore, ariables with different scale levels must be considered explicitly in the matching rocess. The choice of the analysed distance functions is determined by the results of former theoretical studies and recommendations in the empirical literature. Thus, in the simulation, two balancing scores (the propensity score and the index score) and the Mahalanobis distance are considered. Additionally, aggregated statistical distance functions not yet used for empirical evaluation are included. The matching outcomes are compared using non-parametrical scale-specific tests for identical distributions of the characteristics in the treatment and the control groups. The simulation results show that, in small samples, aggregated statistical distance functions are the better
choice for summarising similarities in differently scaled variables compared to the
commonly used measures.
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Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? An Evaluation Study for East Germany
Eva Dettmann, Jutta Günther
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 21,
2009
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the formally equal qualifications acquired during a subsidized vocational education induce equal employment opportunities compared to regular vocational training. Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function, we are able to control for selection effects resulting from different personal and profession-related characteristics, and thus, to identify an unbiased effect of the public support. Besides the ‘total effect’ of support, it is of special interest if the effect is stronger for subsidized youths in external training compared to persons in workplace-related training. The analysis is based on unique and very detailed data, the Youth Panel of the Halle Centre for Social Research (zsh).
The results show that young people who successfully completed a subsidized vocational education are disadvantaged regarding their employment opportunities even when controlling for personal and profession-related influences on the employment prospects. Besides a quantitative effect, the analysis shows that the graduates of subsidized training work in slightly worse (underqualified) and worse paid jobs than the adolescents in the reference group. The comparison of both types of subsidized vocational training, however, does not confirm the expected stronger effect for youths in external vocational education compared to workplace-related training.
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Potential Effects of Basel II on the Transmission from Currency Crises to Banking Crises – The Case of South Korea
Tobias Knedlik, Johannes Ströbel
Journal of Money,
No. 13,
2010
Abstract
In this paper we evaluate potential effects of the Basel II accord on preventing the transmission from currency crises to banking crises by analyzing the South Korean crisis of 1997. We show that regulatory capital reserves under Basel II would have been lower than those under Basel I, and that therefore Basel II would have had adverse effects on the development of the crisis. Furthermore we investigate whether the behavior of rating agencies has changed since the East Asian crisis. We find no evidence that rating agencies have started to take micro-mismatches into account. Thus, we have reservations concerning the effectiveness of Basel II.
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