Gauging the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Packages in the Euro Area
Mathias Trabandt, Roland Straub, Günter Coenen
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
No. 2,
2013
Abstract
We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to the financial crisis of 2008–2009. To do so, we estimate an extended version of the ECB's New Area-Wide Model with a richly specified fiscal sector. The estimation results point to the existence of important complementarities between private and government consumption and, to a lesser extent, between private and public capital. We first examine the implied present-value multipliers for seven distinct fiscal instruments and show that the estimated complementarities result in fiscal multipliers larger than one for government consumption and investment. We highlight the importance of monetary accommodation for these findings. We then show that the EERP, if implemented as initially enacted, had a sizeable, although short-lived impact on euro area GDP. Since the EERP comprised both revenue and expenditure-based fiscal stimulus measures, the total multiplier is below unity.
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Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
This paper presents a method to conduct early estimates of GDP growth in Germany. We employ MIDAS regressions to circumvent the mixed frequency problem and use pooling techniques to summarize efficiently the information content of the various indicators. More specifically, we investigate whether it is better to disaggregate GDP (either via total value added of each sector or by the expenditure side) or whether a direct approach is more appropriate when it comes to forecasting GDP growth. Our approach combines a large set of monthly and quarterly coincident and leading indicators and takes into account the respective publication delay.
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Fiscal Spending Multiplier Calculations Based on Input-Output Tables? An Application to EU Member States
Toralf Pusch
Intervention. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies,
No. 1,
2012
Abstract
Fiscal spending multiplier calculations have attracted considerable attention in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Much of the current literature is based on VAR estimation methods and DSGE models. In line with the Keynesian literature we argue that many of these models probably underestimate the fiscal spending multiplier in recessions. The income-expenditure model of the fiscal spending multiplier can be seen as a good approximation under these circumstances. In its conventional form this model suffers from an underestimation of the multiplier due to an overestimation of the import intake of domestic absorption. In this article we apply input-output calculus to solve this problem. Multipliers thus derived are comparably high, ranging between 1.4 and 1.8 for many member states of the European Union. GDP drops due to budget consolidation might therefore be substantial in times of crisis.
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Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area
Mathias Trabandt, Günter Coenen, Roland Straub
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings,
No. 3,
2012
Abstract
How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of the European Central Bank's New Area-Wide Model with a rich specification of the fiscal sector. A detailed modeling of the fiscal sector and the incorporation of as many as eight fiscal time series appear pivotal for our result.
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The Halle Economic Projection Model
Sebastian Giesen, Oliver Holtemöller, Juliane Scharff, Rolf Scheufele
Economic Modelling,
No. 4,
2012
Abstract
In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model -- the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) -- is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov et al. Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In doing so, we consider Germany, France, and Italy which represent together about 70 percent of Euro area GDP. The model combines core equations of the New-Keynesian standard DSGE model with empirically useful ad-hoc equations. We estimate this model using Bayesian techniques and evaluate the forecasting properties. Additionally, we provide an impulse response analysis and a historical shock decomposition.
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Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model
Mathias Trabandt, Lawrence J. Christiano, Karl Walentin
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control,
No. 12,
2011
Abstract
Which are the main frictions and the driving forces of business cycle dynamics in an open economy? To answer this question we extend the standard new Keynesian model in three dimensions: we incorporate financing frictions for capital, employment frictions for labor and extend the model into a small open economy setting. We estimate the model on Swedish data. Our main results are that (i) a financial shock is pivotal for explaining fluctuations in investment and GDP. (ii) The marginal efficiency of investment shock has negligible importance. (iii) The labor supply shock is unimportant in explaining GDP and no high frequency wage markup shock is needed.
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The Role of Investment Banking for the German Economy: Final Report for Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt/Main
Michael Schröder, M. Borell, Reint E. Gropp, Z. Iliewa, L. Jaroszek, G. Lang, S. Schmidt, K. Trela
ZEW-Dokumentationen, Nr. 12-01,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
The aim of this study is to assess the contributions of investment banking to the economy with a particular focus on the German economy. To this end we analyse both the economic benefits and the costs stemming from investment banking.
The study focuses on investment banks as this part of banking is particularly relevant for financing companies as well as the development and use of specific products to support the needs of private and professional clients. The assessment of benefits and costs of investment banking has been conducted from a European perspective. Nevertheless there is a focus on the German economy to allow a more detailed analysis of certain aspects as for example the use of derivatives by German companies, the success of M&As in Germany or the effect of securitization on loan supply and GDP in Germany. For comparison purposes other European countries and also the U.S. have been taken into account.
The last financial crisis has shown the negative impacts of banks on the financial system and the whole economy. In a study on the contribution of investment banks to systemic risk we quantify the negative side of the investment banking business.
In the last part of the study we assess how the effects of regulatory changes on investment banking. All important changes in banking and capital market regulation are taken into account such as Basel III, additional capital requirements for systemically important financial institutions, regulation of OTC derivatives and specific taxes.
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