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Konjunktur aktuell: Konjunktur in Deutschland bleibt trotz sinkender Stimmung robust

Konjunktur aktuell, No. 3, 2016
Abstract
In Deutschland sind die Konjunkturaussichten weiter recht günstig. Stimmungsindikatoren deuten zwar auf ein etwas schwächeres Jahresende hin, die Binnenkonjunktur ist aber weiter aufwärtsgerichtet. Das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2016 insgesamt um 1,9% zulegen. Für das Jahr 2017 wird dann mit 1,2% eine niedrigere jahresdurchschnittliche Wachstumsrate erwartet. Maßgeblich dafür sind vor allem schwächere Exporte und stärkere Importe. Die Arbeitslosigkeit dürfte im Zuge der Integration von Geflüchteten in den Arbeitsmarkt etwas steigen. Die Verbraucherpreisinflation bleibt weiterhin moderat. Die öffentlichen Haushalte werden wohl im Jahr 2016 ebenso wie im Jahr 2017 – auch in konjunkturbereinigter Rechnung – Überschüsse erwirtschaften.
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EFN Report Autumn 2016: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2017 and 2017

EFN Reports, No. 4, 2016
Abstract
During the first half of 2016, investment activity of private firms was weak in most advanced economies and labour producitivity was even decreasing, as was world trade in goods. Consumption of private households, however, kept the world economy afloat. Within this global context, the modest recovery of the euro area economy continues, with important tailwinds from labour markets. Employment ist expanding everywhre, even in those countries, such as France and Italy, where unemployment rates have still not come down significantly. Since monetary and fisical policies will not become more expansive in 2017, the stimulus from cheap oil is fading, and exports to the UK will be dragged down by the fallout of the Brexit votem there is reason to expect the euro area recovery to lose some momentum. GDP will, according to our forecast, increase by 1,6% in this year and by 1,5% in 2017, about as much as potential output in the euro area. Our inflation forecast for 2016 is 0,2%. For 2017, we expect inflation to increase up to 1,2%, as during next year the favourable effects of decreasing energy prices will fade off.
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02.09.2016 • 35/2016

The German Economy: Still Robust Despite Sliding Sentiment

The prospects for the German economy are still quite favorable. While sentiment indicators suggest that growth will slow at the end of the year, domestic demand will continue on an upward trend. The German GDP should increase by 1.9% in 2016. For 2017 we expect a lower growth rate of 1.2%“Weaker export volumes and higher growth of imports are the relevant factors for the slowdown”, says Prof Oliver Holtemöller, IWH Vice president. Unemployment will rise a bit as more refugees enter the labor market. Consumer price inflation remains moderate. The general government balance (cyclically ad¬justed as well as unadjusted) will be in surplus in both 2016 and 2017.

Oliver Holtemöller
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Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Binnenkonjunktur weiter im Aufwind

Konjunktur aktuell, No. 2, 2016
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich nach wie vor in einem moderaten Aufschwung. Der anhaltende Beschäftigungsaufbau führt zu spürbaren Einkommenssteigerungen, und der Fall der Energiepreise hat die Kaufkraft der privaten Haushalte deutlich erhöht. Beides treibt den privaten Konsum, aber auch die Wohnungsbauinvestitionen, welche überdies von den sehr niedrigen Zinsen beflügelt werden. Allerdings bleiben die Exporte angesichts der schwachen internationalen Dynamik in diesem und im nächsten Jahr eher verhalten. Alles in allem dürfte das deutsche Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr um 1,8% und im Jahr 2017 um 1,6% zunehmen.
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EFN Report Summer 2016: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2016 and 2017

EFN Reports, No. 3, 2016
Abstract
Short run consequences of Brexit for the euro area economy mainly depend on the effects on confidence in the stability of the European Union and the currency area in particular. Anti-European (or indeed anti-globalization) movements are certainly encouraged by the British vote. More important, however, might be a reverse effect: from the perspective of the British turmoil, the euro area might in the near future appear as a zone of relative stability and calm. Against the background of a sluggish world economy, the euro area economy recently performed reasonably well: dynamics have been slowly increasing since 2013, and the rate of expansion in the first quarter of 2016 was one of the highest of the past couple of years. Looking forward, the drivers of the recovery should continue supporting growth in the second half of 2016 and for much of 2017. Our forecast is that euro area GDP will expand by 1.7% in 2016 and by 1.6% in 2017, with only a minor effect from Brexit. This year, like in 2015, average oil prices will probably be markedly lower than they were a year ago, supporting real incomes of private households and lowering production costs of firms, and monetary policy will still be supportive. Labour markets appear to continue improving slowly. Associated with the improved economic conditions, we expect a slight increase in euro area inflation during 2016, 0.3%, with a more marked increase in 2017, 1,3%.
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Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2016: Aufschwung bleibt moderat – Wirtschaftspolitik wenig wachstumsorientiert

Wirtschaft im Wandel, No. 2, 2016
Abstract
Anfang des Jahres 2016 wurde deutlich, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft in den Monaten zuvor merklich abgekühlt hatte. Die schlechten Nachrichten führten auf den Aktienmärkten im Januar und Februar weltweit zu erheblichen Bewertungsverlusten sowie zu einem deut­lichen Anstieg der Risikowahrnehmung.
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EFN Report Spring 2016: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2016 and 2017

EFN Reports, No. 2, 2016
Abstract
Global growth will stay rather moderate this year. The peak of the upswing in the US appears to be over. For Japan, after three years of “Abenomics”, a prolonged upswing is still elusive. In China low profitability and high debt levels of many government-owned industrial firms continue to drag growth down. The low prices for commodities heighten uncertainty and volatility on financial markets since they increase the risks of financial crises in economies that are dependent on commodity exports. In the euro area, chances for the recovery to continue are good, as this year, like in 2015, oil prices will probably be markedly lower than they were a year ago, supporting real income of private households and lowering production costs of firms. In this context, our forecast is that euro area GDP will expand by 1.6% in 2016 and by 1.7% in 2017. These rates are higher than the rate of potential growth, but they are arguably low given the expansive monetary policy and the strong stimulus from decreased commodity prices. We do not expect an increase in euro area inflation during 2016, but prices will grow by around 1% in 2017, because the dampening effects of decreasing energy prices slowly fade off and the euro remains rather weak. However, risks for this cautiously optimistic forecast are substantial. New shadows on the financial sector, the uncertainty about whether or not the British will vote in favour of membership in the European Union and the lack of a viable political solution for the refugee crisis are some of the main uncertainties behind these forecasts.
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Regional Capital Flows and Economic Regimes: Evidence from China

Liuchun Deng, Boqun Wang
Economics Letters, April 2016
Abstract
Using provincial data from China, this paper examines the pattern of capital flows in relation to the transition of economic regimes. We show that fast-growing provinces experienced less capital inflows before the large-scale market reform, contrary to the prediction of the neoclassical growth theory. As China transitioned from the central-planning economy to the market economy, the negative correlation between productivity growth and capital inflows became much less pronounced. From a regional perspective, this finding suggests domestic institutional factors play an important role in shaping the pattern of capital flows.
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Did TARP Distort Competition Among Sound Unsupported Banks?

Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
Economic Inquiry, No. 2, 2016
Abstract
This study investigates if the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) distorted price competition in U.S. banking. Political indicators reveal bailout expectations after 2009, manifested as beliefs about the predicted probability of receiving equity support relative to failing during the TARP disbursement period. In addition, the TARP affected the competitive conduct of unsupported banks after the program stopped in the fourth quarter of 2009. Loan rates were higher, and the risk premium required by depositors was lower for banks with higher bailout expectations. The interest margins of unsupported banks increased in the immediate aftermath of the TARP disbursement but not after 2010. No effects emerged for loan or deposit growth, which suggests that protected banks did not increase their market shares at the expense of less protected banks.
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Konjunktur aktuell: Stabile Konjunktur in Deutschland trotz krisenhaften Umfelds

Konjunktur aktuell, No. 1, 2016
Abstract
Die deutsche Konjunktur ist trotz internationaler Risiken und politischer Verwerfungen kraftvoll in das Jahr 2016 gestartet. Beschäftigung und Einkommen nehmen zu, und die Binnennachfrage steigt deutlich, auch weil der Staat zusätzliche Ausgaben im Zusammenhang mit der Flüchtlingsmigration tätigt. Allerdings dürfte es im Frühjahr zu einer vorübergehenden Verlangsamung der Dynamik kommen, darauf deuten Stimmungsindikatoren hin. Mit Fortschritten bei der Bewältigung der aktuellen politischen Probleme in Europa dürfte die Zuversicht wieder zunehmen und die deutsche Konjunktur insgesamt stabil bleiben, sodass das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2016 wohl mit einer Rate von 1,5% expandieren wird.
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