Kommentar: Manövriert sich die EZB in eine Falle?
Reint E. Gropp
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2015
Abstract
Die EZB hat am 22. Januar 2015 beschlossen, in großem Umfang Anleihen öffentlicher Institutionen aus dem Euroraum, darunter auch der Nationalstaaten, zu kaufen. Es gibt gute Gründe für diese Maßnahme: Marktbasierte mittelfristige Inflationserwartungen sind zuletzt deutlich gesunken, die Inflationsrate ist tendenziell rückläufig und war zuletzt sogar negativ. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer deflationären Spirale hat sich erhöht, mit unabsehbaren Folgen für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. Die schwache Verbraucherpreisentwicklung im Euroraum basiert auf mehreren Faktoren: der schleppenden Konjunkturentwicklung, fallenden Ölpreisen und fiskalpolitischer Konsolidierung in einigen Euroländern (Spanien, Portugal, Irland).
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Switching to Exchange Rate Flexibility? The Case of Central and Eastern European Inflation Targeters
Andrej Drygalla
FIW Working Paper,
No. 139,
2015
Abstract
This paper analyzes changes in the monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland following the policy shift from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting around the turn of the millennium. Applying a Markovswitching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, switches in the policy parameters and the volatilities of shocks hitting the economies are estimated and quantified. Results indicate the presence of regimes of weak and strong responses of the central banks to exchange rate movements as well as periods of high and low volatility. Whereas all three economies switched to a less volatile regime over time, findings on changes in the policy parameters reveal a lower reaction to exchange rate movements in the Czech Republic and Poland, but an increased attention to it in Hungary. Simulations for the Czech Republic and Poland also suggest their respective central banks, rather than a sound macroeconomic environment, being accountable for reducing volatility in variables like inflation and output. In Hungary, their favorable developments can be attributed to a larger extent to the reduction in the size of external disturbances.
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The Development of Cities and Municipalities in Central and Eastern Europe: Introduction for a Special Issue of 'Urban Research and Practice'
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld, Albrecht Kauffmann
Urban Research & Practice, Vol. 7 (3),
No. 3,
2014
Abstract
Since the 1990s, local governments in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have been confronted by completely new structures and developments. This came after more than 40 years (or even longer in the case of the former Soviet Union) under a socialist regime and behind an iron curtain which isolated them from the non-socialist world. A lack of resources had led to an underinvestment in the refurbishment of older buildings, while relatively cheap ‘prefabricated’ housing had been built, not only in the outskirts of cities, but also within city centres. A lack of resources had also resulted in the fact that the socialist regimes were generally unable to replace old buildings with ‘modern’ ones; hence, there is a very rich heritage of historical monuments in many of these cities today. The centrally planned economies and the development of urban structures (including the shifts of population between cities and regions) were determined by ideology, political rationality and the integration of all CEE countries into the production schemes of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance and its division of labour by location. The sudden introduction of a market economy, private property, democratic rules, local autonomy for cities and municipalities and access to the global economy and society may be seen as a kind of ‘natural experiment’. How would these new conditions shape the national systems of cities and municipalities? Which cities would shrink and which would grow? How would the relationship between core cities and their surrounding municipalities develop? And what would happen within these cities and with their built environment?
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Is Subsidizing Companies in Difficulties an Optimal Policy? An Empirical Study on the Effectiveness of State Aid in the European Union
Nicole Nulsch
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 9,
2014
Abstract
Even though state aid in order to rescue or restructure ailing companies is regularly granted by European governments, it is often controversially discussed. The aims for rescuing companies are manifold and vary from social, industrial and even political considerations. Well-known examples are Austrian Airlines (Austria) or MG Rover (Great Britain). Yet, this study aims to answer the question whether state aid is used effectively and whether the initial aim why aid has been paid has been reached, i.e. the survival of the company. By using data on rescued companies in the EU and applying a survival analysis, this paper investigates the survival rates of these companies up to 15 years after the aid has been paid. In addition, the results are compared to the survival rates of non-rescued companies which have also been in difficulties. The results suggest that despite the financial support, business failure is often only post-poned; best survival rates have firms with long-term restructuring, enterprises in Eastern Europe, smaller firms and mature companies. However, non-funded companies have an even higher ratio to go bankrupt.
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Im Fokus: Die Entwicklung der Kernkapitalquoten der deutschen Banken seit der Finanzkrise
Manuel Buchholz, Felix Noth
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2014
Abstract
Das Eigenkapital einer Bank dient aus aufsichtsrechtlicher Sicht zwei Zielen: zum einen dem Ausgleich von Verlusten aus laufenden Geschäften oder der Begleichung von Gläubigeransprüchen im Insolvenzfall, zum anderen der Begrenzung von Verlustrisiken aus bestimmten Geschäften. Ein wichtiger Bestandteil des Eigenkapitals ist dabei das Kernkapital. Das Kernkapital ist der Anteil des Eigenkapitals einer Bank, der dem Institut dauerhaft zur Verfügung steht und somit als echter Verlustpuffer dienen kann. Bestandteile sind unter anderem das Stammkapital, Kapitalrücklagen, Gewinnrücklagen oder eigene Aktien der Bank. Aus dem Kernkapital ergibt sich eine wichtige aufsichtsrechtliche Kenngröße: die Kernkapitalquote (Tier 1 Capital Ratio). Diese berechnet sich als das Verhältnis von Kernkapital zur Summe der Risikoaktiva einer Ba
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Taxing Banks: An Evaluation of the German Bank Levy
Claudia M. Buch, Björn Hilberg, Lena Tonzer
Abstract
Bank distress can have severe negative consequences for the stability of the financial system, the real economy, and public finances. Regimes for restructuring and restoring banks financed by bank levies and fiscal backstops seek to reduce these costs. Bank levies attempt to internalize systemic risk and increase the costs of leverage. This paper evaluates the effects of the German bank levy implemented in 2011 as part of the German bank restructuring law. Our analysis offers three main insights. First, revenues raised through the bank levy are minimal, because of low tax rates and high thresholds for tax exemptions. Second, the bulk of the payments were contributed by large commercial banks and the head institutes of savings banks and credit unions. Third, the levy had no effect on the volume of loans or interest rates for the average German bank. For the banks affected most by the levy, we find evidence of fewer loans, higher lending rates, and lower deposit rates.
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The Impact of Preferences on Early Warning Systems - The Case of the European Commission's Scoreboard
Tobias Knedlik
European Journal of Political Economy,
2014
Abstract
The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system. It allows the preferences of the politicians involved to be analysed with regard to the two potential errors of an early warning system – missing a crisis and issuing a false alarm. These preferences might differ with the institutional setting. Such an analysis is done for the first time in this article for early warning systems in general by using a standard signals approach, including a preference-based optimisation approach, to set thresholds. It is shown that, in general, the thresholds of the Commission’s Scoreboard are set low (resulting in more alarm signals), as compared to a neutral stand. Based on political economy considerations the result could have been expected.
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An Empirical Analysis of Legal Insider Trading in The Netherlands
Frank de Jong, Jérémie Lefebvre, Hans Degryse
De Economist,
No. 1,
2014
Abstract
In this paper, we employ a registry of legal insider trading for Dutch listed firms to investigate the information content of trades by corporate insiders. Using a standard event-study methodology, we examine short-term stock price behavior around trades. We find that purchases are followed by economically large abnormal returns. This result is strongest for purchases by top executives and for small market capitalization firms, which is consistent with the hypothesis that legal insider trading is an important channel through which information flows to the market. We analyze also the impact of the implementation of the Market Abuse Directive (European Union Directive 2003/6/EC), which strengthens the existing regulation in the Netherlands. We show that the new regulation reduced the information content of sales by top executives.
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Why Do Banks Provide Leasing?
D. Bülbül, Felix Noth, M. Tyrell
Journal of Financial Services Research,
No. 2,
2014
Abstract
Banks are engaging in leasing activities at an increasing rate, which is demonstrated by aggregated data for both European and U.S. banking companies. However, little is known about leasing activities at the bank level. The contribution of this paper is the introduction of the nexus of leasing in banking. Beginning from an institutional basis, this paper describes the key features of banks’ leasing activities using the example of German regional banks. The banks in this sample can choose from different types of leasing contracts, providing the banks with a degree of leeway in conducting business with their clients. We find a robust and significant positive impact of banks’ leasing activities on their profitability. Specifically, the beneficial effect of leasing stems from commission business in which the bank acts as a middleman and is not affected by the potential defaults of customers.
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Ten Years after Accession: State Aid in Eastern Europe
Jens Hölscher, Nicole Nulsch, Johannes Stephan
European State Aid Law Quarterly,
No. 2,
2014
Abstract
In the early phase of transition that started with the 1990s, Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) have pursued far-reaching vertical and individual industrial policy with a focus on privatisation and restructuring of traditional industries. Foreign investment from the West and the facilitation of the development of a market economy also involved massive injections of State support. With their accession to the European Union (EU), levels and forms of State aid came under critical review by the European Commission. Now that a first decade has passed since the first Eastern enlargement in 2004, this inquiry investigates how State aid policy in the CEECs has developed during the last...
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