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03
JUL 2017
14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-state Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle

Who
Maik Wolters (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena)
Where
IWH conference room

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net softthresholding rule.

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21
NOV 2016
14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle

Who
Federico Ravenna (Institute of Applied Economics, HEC Montréal)
Where
IWH conference room

We show that occasional deviations from efficient wage-setting generate strong and statedependent amplication of exogenous uncertainty shocks and contribute to explain the observed countercyclicality of empirical measures of aggregate uncertainty.

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22
JAN 2018
14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Uncertainty-driven Business Cycles: Assessing the Markup Channel

Who
Johannes Pfeifer (Universität zu Köln)
Where
IWH conference room

A growing recent literature relies on a precautionary pricing motive embedded in representative agent DSGE models with sticky prices and wages to generate negative output effects of uncertainty shocks.

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