IWH-Flash-Indikator III. und IV. Quartal 2024
Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Birgit Schultz
IWH-Flash-Indikator,
No. 3,
2024
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist noch immer im Abschwung. Seit nunmehr zwei Jahren folgen abwechselnd minimale Zu- und Abnahmen von einem Quartal auf das nächste. Zuletzt nahm das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) im zweiten Quartal 2024 um 0,1% ab. Zuvor war es zwar um 0,2% gestiegen (vgl. Abbildung 1), aber auch dies reicht nicht aus, um die negative Produktionslücke zu verringern. Die Produktion in der Industrie und vor allem am Bau ist im zweiten Quartal spürbar gesunken. Auch im laufenden dritten Quartal ist die Stimmung der Unternehmen schlecht. Neben einer schwachen Nachfrage für Exportgüter gibt es eine Reihe von Gründen, warum ein Aufschwung noch nicht in Gang kommt: So wirken neben hohen Zinsen und Energiepreisen auch eine richtungslose Politik sowie eine Vielzahl geopolitischer Krisenherde investitionshemmend. Auch der nach wie vor hohe Krankenstand belastet die Wirtschaft. Alles in allem dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) laut IWH-Flash-Indikator im dritten Quartal 2024 um lediglich 0,2% steigen, was erneut keine konjunkturelle Trendwende bedeutet. Eine kräftigere Belebung könnte sich aufgrund steigender Realeinkommen am Jahresende einstellen.
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13.06.2024 • 17/2024
German economy still on the defensive – but first signs of an end to the downturn
In the first half of 2024, signs of an economic recovery are increasing. Production, however, is likely to expand only modestly during summer. From the autumn, the recovery is likely to pick up speed with higher real incomes and a modest increase in exports. In its summer forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to expand by 0.3% in 2024 and by 1.5% in 2025 (East Germany: 0.6% and 1.4%). In March, the IWH forecast had assumed a growth of 0.2% in 2024 and of 1.5% in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft noch in der Defensive – aber erste Anzeichen für ein Ende des Abschwungs
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 2,
2024
Abstract
Die Aussichten für die internationale Konjunktur bleiben leicht eingetrübt. In Europa setzt sich die zaghafte Erholung fort. In Deutschland vermehren sich die Anzeichen für eine konjunkturelle Besserung. Alles in allem wird die Produktion im Sommerhalbjahr wohl nur verhalten ausgeweitet, doch ab Herbst dürfte die Belebung Fahrt aufnehmen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im Jahr 2024 um 0,3% expandieren, für 2025 prognostiziert das IWH einen Zuwachs um 1,5%.
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Do Politicians Affect Firm Outcomes? Evidence from Connections to the German Federal Parliament
André Diegmann, Laura Pohlan, Andrea Weber
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2024
Abstract
We study how connections to German federal parliamentarians affect firm dynamics by constructing a novel dataset to measure connections between politicians and the universe of firms. To identify the causal effect of access to political power, we exploit (i) new appointments to the company leadership team and (ii) discontinuities around the marginal seat of party election lists. Our results reveal that connections lead to reductions in firm exits, gradual increases in employment growth without improvements in productivity. The economic effects are mediated by better credit ratings while access to subsidies or procurement contracts are documented to be of lower importance.
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Too Poor to Be Green? The Effects of Wealth on the Residential Heating Transformation
Tobias Berg, Ulf Nielsson, Daniel Streitz
SSRN Working Paper,
2024
Abstract
Using the near-universe of Danish owner-occupied residential houses, we show that an exogenous increase in wealth significantly increases the likelihood to switch to green heating. We estimate an elasticity of one at the median of the wealth distribution, i.e., a 10% increase in wealth increase raises green heating adoption by 10%. Effects are heterogeneous along the wealth distribution: all else equal, a redistribution of wealth from rich households to poor households can significantly increase green heating adoption. We further explore potential channels of our findings (pro-social preferences, financial constraints, and luxury goods interpretation). Our results emphasize the role of economic growth for the green transition.
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IWH-Flash-Indikator II. und III. Quartal 2024
Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Birgit Schultz
IWH-Flash-Indikator,
No. 2,
2024
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft stagniert nun schon seit zwei Jahren. Auch zu Beginn des Jahres 2024 gab es mit einem leichten Plus von 0,2% keinen konjunkturellen Neustart. Vor allem war die Kauflaune der privaten Haushalte gedrückt, aber auch die Industrie kämpft weiter mit ungünstigen Rahmenbedingungen und einer schwachen Nachfrage. Hohe Zinsen und Energiepreise, aber auch strukturelle Probleme wie bürokratische Restriktionen fordern dabei ihren Tribut, wie nicht zuletzt an den steigenden Insolvenzzahlen zu sehen ist. Im internationalen Umfeld werden die Krisenherde und Spannungen nicht weniger, dennoch ist die Weltkonjunktur weiter aufwärtsgerichtet. Damit steigt bei den deutschen Unternehmen die Hoffnung, im Kielwasser mitziehen zu können. Alles in allem dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) laut IWH-Flash-Indikator im zweiten Quartal 2024 um 0,3% und im dritten Quartal 2024 um 0,1% steigen (vgl. Abbildung 1).
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Credit Supply Shocks: Financing Real Growth or Takeovers?
Tobias Berg, Daniel Streitz, Michael Wedow
Review of Corporate Finance Studies,
No. 2,
2024
Abstract
How do firms invest when financial constraints are relaxed? We document that firms affected by a large positive credit supply shock predominantly increase borrowing for transaction-based purposes. These treated firms have larger asset and employment growth rates; however, growth entirely stems from the increased takeover activity. Announcement returns indicate a low quality of the credit-supply-induced takeover activity. These results offer the possibility that credit-driven growth can simply reflect redistribution, rather than net gains in assets or employment.
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27.03.2024 • 11/2024
East Germany's lead over West Germany in terms of growth is bound to shrink – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2024 for the East German economy
In 2023, the East German economy is expected to have expanded by 0.5%, while it shrank by 0.3% in Germany as a whole. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts an East German growth rate of 0.5% again for 2024, and a rate of 1.5% in 2025. The unemployment rate is expected to be 7.3% in 2024 and 7.1% in the following year.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Forecasting Economic Activity Using a Neural Network in Uncertain Times: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to the
German GDP
Oliver Holtemöller, Boris Kozyrev
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2024
Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the forecasting and nowcasting performance of a generalized regression neural network (GRNN). We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations for the relative forecast performance of GRNN depending on the data-generating process. We show that GRNN outperforms an autoregressive benchmark model in many practically relevant cases. Then, we applied GRNN to forecast quarterly German GDP growth by extending univariate GRNN to multivariate and mixed-frequency settings. We could distinguish between “normal” times and situations where the time-series behavior is very different from “normal” times such as during the COVID-19 recession and recovery. GRNN was superior in terms of root mean forecast errors compared to an autoregressive model and to more sophisticated approaches such as dynamic factor models if applied appropriately.
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07.03.2024 • 6/2024
Germany stuck in stagnation ‒ private consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels
Weak consumption and investment in Germany are partly due to inflation-induced losses in real income and declines in energy-intensive production. However, concerns about the competitive strength of the German economy are also weighing on the willingness of private households and companies to spend. In its spring forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to expand by just 0.2% in 2024, while the forecast for 2025 includes growth of 1.5% (eastern Germany: 0.5% and 1.4%). Last December, the IWH forecast had assumed an increase of 0.5% for Germany in 2024 and of 1.2% for 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
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