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Teaching Within the framework of its cooperations with both German and foreign universities IWH researchers are actively committed to teaching by offering academic courses. These…
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IWH Alumni The IWH maintains contact with its former employees worldwide. We involve our alumni in our work and keep them informed, for example, with a newsletter. We also plan…
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IWH-DPE Call for Applications – Fall 2024 Intake
IWH-DPE Call for Applications About the IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics The IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics (IWH-DPE) is a rigorous structured four-year PhD programme with…
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IWH Summer Forecast: German economy still on the defensive – but first signs of an end to the downturn In the first half of 2024, signs of an economic recovery are increasing.…
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Market-implied Ratings and Their Divergence from Credit Ratings
Iftekhar Hasan, Winnie P. H. Poon, Jianfu Shen, Gaiyan Zhang
Journal of Financial Research,
No. 2,
2023
Abstract
In this article, we investigate the divergence between credit ratings (CRs) and Moody's market-implied ratings (MIRs). Our evidence shows that rating gaps provide incremental information to the market regarding issuers' default risk over CRs alone in the short horizon and outperform CRs over extended horizons. The predictive ability of rating gaps is greater for more opaque and volatile issuers. Such predictability was more pronounced during the 2008 financial crisis but weakened in the post-Dodd-Frank Act period. This finding is consistent with credit rating agencies' efforts to improve their performance when facing regulatory pressure. Moreover, our analysis identifies rating-gap signals that do (do not) lead to subsequent Moody's actions to place issuers on negative outlook and watchlists. We find that negative signals from MIR gaps have a real economic impact on issuers' fundamentals such as profitability, leverage, investment, and default risk, thus supporting the recovery-efforts hypothesis.
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Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one of the four research departments (Financial Markets – Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets –…
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Vocational Training
Vocational Training at IWH At the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) the state-approved professions specialist in media and information services (m/f/x) [library] ,…
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IWH-DPE Call for Applications – Fall 2022 Intake
Vacancy IWH-DPE Call for Applications – Fall 2022 Intake We encourage outstanding students with a master degree in economics or related fields, such as mathematics, statistics,…
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IWH-DPE Call for Applications – Fall 2024 Intake
Vacancy The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is one of Germany’s leading economic research institutes. The IWH focuses on research in macroeconomics, financial…
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