18.03.2021 • 9/2021
Economic mobility likely to increase significantly after relaxation – but also number of COVID-19 cases
The relaxation of Corona containment measures from the beginning of March 2021 lead to a significant increase in economic mobility and thus also in personal contacts in Germany. Estimates suggest that the recent relaxations increase economic mobility by more than ten percentage points and the number of new infections and deaths in Germany by 25%. Because both continued lockdowns and relaxations carry significant negative consequences, it is even more important to enable further relaxations through better testing and quarantine strategies and by increasing the pace of vaccination without putting people's health at risk.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Economic Mobility Likely to Increase Significantly after Relaxation – but also Number of COVID-19 Cases
Oliver Holtemöller, Malte Rieth
IWH Policy Notes,
No. 3,
2021
Abstract
In Deutschland wurden Anfang März in einigen Bereichen Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des Coronavirus gelockert; so wurde die Anzahl der Personen aus verschiedenen Haushalten, die sich treffen dürfen, vielerorts erhöht und Einzelhandelsgeschäfte können vermehrt wieder Kunden empfangen. Auf diese Weise kommt es zu einem gewollten Wiederanstieg der wirtschaftlichen Mobilität und der persönlichen Kontakte zwischen Menschen. Die Kontakthäufigkeit ist allerdings auch ein wesentlicher Einflussfaktor für die Ausbreitungsgeschwindigkeit des Coronavirus, zumal die Lockerungen bislang nicht mit einer systematischen Teststrategie einhergehen; und auch der Impffortschritt bleibt hinter den Erwartungen zurück. Schätzungen auf Basis eines Modells für den Zusammenhang zwischen Eindämmungsmaßnahmen (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Stringency Index), wirtschaftlicher Mobilität (Google Mobility Data), Corona-Neuinfektionen und Todesfällen mit Daten aus 44 Ländern deuten darauf hin, dass die jüngsten Lockerungen die wirtschaftliche Mobilität um mehr als zehn Prozentpunkte ansteigen lassen und die Zahl der Neuinfektionen und der Todesfälle in Deutschland um 25% erhöhen. Da sowohl ein fortgesetzter Lockdown als auch Lockerungen erhebliche negative Konsequenzen mit sich bringen, ist es umso wichtiger, durch eine bessere Test- und Quarantänestrategie und durch eine höhere Geschwindigkeit beim Impfen weitere Lockerungen zu ermöglichen, ohne damit die Gesundheit der Menschen zu gefährden.
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Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks
Annika Camehl, Malte Rieth
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 2,
2021
Abstract
We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately, cases after one week, and deaths after three weeks. Non-pharmaceutical interventions explain half of the variation in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. These flattened the pandemic curve, while deepening the global mobility recession. The policy tradeoff is 1 p.p. less mobility per day for 9% fewer deaths after two months.
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Competition, Cost Structure, and Labour Leverage: Evidence from the U.S. Airline Industry
Konstantin Wagner
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 21,
2020
Abstract
I study the effect of increasing competition on financial performance through labour leverage. To capture competition, I exploit variation in product market contestability in the U.S. airline industry. First, I find that increasing competitive pressure leads to increasing labour leverage, proxied by labour share. This explains the decrease in operating profitability through labour rigidities. Second, by exploiting variation in human capital specificity, I show that contestability of product markets induces labour market contestability. Whereas affected firms might experience more stress through higher wages or loss of skilled human capital, more mobile employee groups benefit from competitions through higher labour shares.
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Foreign Ownership, Bank Information Environments, and the International Mobility of Corporate Governance
Yiwei Fang, Iftekhar Hasan, Woon Sau Leung, Qingwei Wang
Journal of International Business Studies,
No. 9,
2019
Abstract
This paper investigates how foreign ownership shapes bank information environments. Using a sample of listed banks from 60 countries over 1997–2012, we show that foreign ownership is significantly associated with greater (lower) informativeness (synchronicity) in bank stock prices. We also find that stock returns of foreign-owned banks reflect more information about future earnings. In addition, the positive association between price informativeness and foreign ownership is stronger for foreign-owned banks in countries with stronger governance, stronger banking supervision, and lower monitoring costs. Overall, our evidence suggests that foreign ownership reduces bank opacity by exporting governance, yielding important implications for regulators and governments.
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Innovation and Top Income Inequality
Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Antonin Bergeaud, Richard Blundell, David Hemous
Review of Economic Studies,
No. 1,
2019
Abstract
In this article, we use cross-state panel and cross-U.S. commuting-zone data to look at the relationship between innovation, top income inequality and social mobility. We find positive correlations between measures of innovation and top income inequality. We also show that the correlations between innovation and broad measures of inequality are not significant. Next, using instrumental variable analysis, we argue that these correlations at least partly reflect a causality from innovation to top income shares. Finally, we show that innovation, particularly by new entrants, is positively associated with social mobility, but less so in local areas with more intense lobbying activities.
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Selection Versus Incentives in Incentive Pay: Evidence from a Matching Model
Shuo Xia
SSRN Working Papers,
2018
Abstract
Higher incentive pay is associated with better firm performance. I introduce a model of CEO-firm matching to disentangle the two confounding effects that drive this result. On one hand, higher incentive pay directly induces more effort; on the other hand, higher incentive pay indirectly attracts more talented CEOs. I find both effects are essential to explain the result, with the selection effect accounting for 12.7% of the total effect. The relative importance of the selection effect is the largest in industries with high talent mobility and in more recent years.
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Niedrige Soziale Mobilität in Deutschland: Wo liegen die Ursachen?
Thomas Brockmeier, Reint E. Gropp
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2017
Abstract
Weiterhin gilt in Deutschland: Für den Bildungserfolg ist es nicht entscheidend, was ein Kind kann, sondern woher es kommt. Die soziale Herkunft eines Kindes bestimmt in hohem Maße dessen Bildungsniveau, beruflichen Erfolg und Einkommen. Eine Untersuchung des Statistischen Bundesamts vom letzten Jahr zeigt, dass 61% der unter 15-Jährigen, deren Eltern selbst einen hohen Bildungsabschluss haben, 2015 ein Gymnasium besuchten, während dies nur für 14% der Jugendlichen aus Familien mit niedrigem Bildungsabschluss gilt. Empirische Studien belegen: Kinder mit einem bildungsfernen Familienhintergrund können in Deutschland nur mit einer deutlich niedrigeren Wahrscheinlichkeit als etwa in skandinavischen Ländern (Dänemark, Norwegen, Finnland und Schweden) und einer ähnlich hohen Wahrscheinlichkeit wie in den USA sozial aufsteigen.
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Losing Work, Moving Away? Regional Mobility After Job Loss
Daniel Fackler, Lisa Rippe
LABOUR: Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations,
No. 4,
2017
Abstract
Using German survey data, we investigate the relationship between involuntary job loss and regional mobility. Our results show that job loss has a strong positive effect on the propensity to relocate. We also analyse whether displaced workers who relocate to a different region after job loss are better able to catch up with non-displaced workers in terms of labour market performance than those staying in the same region. Our findings do not support this conjecture as we find substantial long-lasting earnings losses for movers and stayers and even slightly but not significantly higher losses for movers.
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Transferability of Skills across Sectors and Heterogeneous Displacement Costs
Moises Yi, Steffen Müller, Jens Stegmaier
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings,
No. 5,
2017
Abstract
We use rich German administrative data to estimate new measures of skill transferability between manufacturing and other sectors. These measures capture the value of workers' human capital when applied in different sectors and are directly related to workers' displacement costs. We estimate these transferability measures using a selection correction model, which addresses workers' endogenous mobility, and a novel selection instrument based on the social network of workers. Our results indicate substantial heterogeneity in how workers can transfer their skills when they move across sectors, which implies heterogeneous displacement costs that depend on the sector to which workers reallocate.
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