Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity
Franziska Bremus, Claudia M. Buch, K. Russ, Monika Schnitzer
NBER Working Paper No. 19093,
2013
Abstract
Does the mere presence of big banks affect macroeconomic outcomes? In this paper, we develop a theory of granularity (Gabaix, 2011) for the banking sector, introducing Bertrand competition and heterogeneous banks charging variable markups. Using this framework, we show conditions under which idiosyncratic shocks to bank lending can generate aggregate fluctuations in the credit supply when the banking sector is highly concentrated. We empirically assess the relevance of these granular effects in banking using a linked micro-macro dataset of more than 80 countries for the years 1995-2009. The banking sector for many countries is indeed granular, as the right tail of the bank size distribution follows a power law. We then demonstrate granular effects in the banking sector on macroeconomic outcomes. The presence of big banks measured by high market concentration is associated with a positive and significant relationship between bank-level credit growth and aggregate growth of credit or gross domestic product.
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Skill Content of Intra-european Trade Flows
Götz Zeddies
European Journal of Comparative Economics,
No. 1,
2013
Abstract
In recent decades, the international division of labor has expanded rapidly in the wake of European integration. In this context, especially Western European high-wage countries should have specialized on (human-)capital intensively manufactured goods and should have increasingly sourced labor-intensively manufactured goods, especially parts and components, from Eastern European low wage countries. Since this should be beneficial for the high-skilled and harmful to the lower-qualified workforce in high-wage countries, the opening up of Eastern Europe is often considered as a vital reason for increasing unemployment of the lower-qualified in Western Europe. This paper addresses this issue by analyzing the skill content of Western European countries’ bilateral trade using input-output techniques in order to evaluate possible effects of international trade on labor demand. Thereby, differences in factor inputs and production technologies have been considered, allowing for vertical product differentiation. In this case, skill content of bilateral exports and imports partially differs substantially, especially in bilateral trade between Western and Eastern European countries. According to the results, East-West trade should be harmful particularly to the medium-skilled in Western European countries.
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Towards a Theory of Climate Innovation - A Model Framework for Analyzing Drivers and Determinants
Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
2013
Abstract
In this article, we describe the results of a multiple case study on the indirect corporate innovation impact of climate change in the Central German chemical industry. We investigate the demands imposed on enterprises in this context as well as the sources, outcomes and determining factors in the innovative process at the corporate level. We argue that climate change drives corporate innovations through various channels. A main finding is that rising energy prices were a key driver for incremental energy efficiency innovations in the enterprises’ production processes. For product innovation, customer requests were a main driver, though often these requests are not directly related to climate issues. The introduction or extension of environmental and energy management systems as well as the certification of these are the most common forms of organizational innovations. For marketing purposes, the topic of climate change was hardly utilized so far. As the most important determinants for corporate climate innovations, corporate structure and flexibility of the product portfolio, political asymmetry regarding environmental regulation and governmental funding were identified.
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Bertrand Competition with an Asymmetric No-discrimination Constraint
Jan Bouckaert, Hans Degryse, Theon van Dijk
Journal of Industrial Economics,
No. 1,
2013
Abstract
Regulators and competition authorities often prevent firms with significant market power, or dominant firms, from practicing price discrimination. The goal of such an asymmetric no-discrimination constraint is to encourage entry and serve consumers' interests. This constraint prohibits the firm with significant market power from practicing both behaviour-based price discrimination within the competitive segment and third-degree price discrimination across the monopolistic and competitive segments. We find that this constraint hinders entry and reduces welfare when the monopolistic segment is small.
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Konjunkturelle Flaute zum Jahresende 2012 – aber auch Anzeichen für eine mäßige Brise im neuen Jahr
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2013
Abstract
In diesem Artikel wird die Konjunkturprognose des IWH vom 13. Dezember 2012 zusammenfassend dargestellt.
Das IWH ist im Dezember für das Jahr 2012 von einer Zunahme des Bruttoinlandsproduktes in Deutschland von 0,8% ausgegangen. Aktuellere Daten des Statistischen Bundesamtes weisen eine Zunahme um 0,7% aus. Das vierte Quartal 2012 dürfte somit geringfügig schwächer ausgefallen sein als in der Prognose vom Dezember unterstellt. Die Prognose für die Jahre 2013 und 2014 bleibt davon jedoch unberührt. Nach konjunktureller Flaute zum Jahresende 2012 dürfte die Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2013 wieder frischen Wind in den Segeln verspüren. Ein kräftiger Aufschwung bleibt jedoch aus. Die Konsolidierungsnotwendigkeiten in vielen fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften wirken weiter belastend. Auch die deutsche Wirtschaft wird im Schlussquartal des Jahres 2012 schrumpfen, dann aber wieder Fahrt aufnehmen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt legt im Jahr 2013 um 0,7% zu und im Jahr 2014 um 1,5%. Dabei wird die Arbeitslosenquote geringfügig auf 6,7% steigen. Die Verbraucherpreisinflation wird in den Jahren 2013 und 2014 in etwa bei 2% liegen. Der staatliche Finanzierungssaldo wird im Jahr 2013 wieder negativ.
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Competitive Distortions of Bank Bailouts
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
Abstract
This study investigates if the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) distorted price competition in U.S. banking. Political indicators reveal bailout expectations after 2009, manifested as beliefs about the predicted probability of receiving equity support relative to failing during the TARP disbursement period. In addition, the TARP affected the competitive conduct of unsupported banks after the program stopped in the fourth quarter of 2009. Loan rates were higher, and the risk premium required by depositors was lower for banks with higher bailout expectations. The interest margins of unsupported banks increased in the immediate aftermath of the TARP disbursement but not after 2010. No effects emerged for loan or deposit growth, which suggests that protected banks did not increase their market shares at the expense of less protected banks.
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Ostdeutsche Wirtschaft im Jahr 2012: Im Sog der allgemeinen Abkühlung der Konjunktur
Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Brigitte Loose, Franziska Exß
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 8,
2012
Abstract
Nach dem Ende der Nachholphase der Produktionsausfälle in der globalen Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise ist die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft in schwieriges Fahrwasser geraten. Ähnlich wie damals verliert in der Realwirtschaft infolge der erneut gestiegenen Unsicherheiten auf den Außenmärkten und der konjunkturellen Abschwächung in Deutschland zuerst die Industrie ihre Antriebskraft. Das Baugewerbe profitiert nur wenig von der Flucht in Immobilien. Wie lange diese Entwicklung anhält, hängt von der Entschärfung der Staatsschulden- und Vertrauenskrisen im Euroraum ab.
Ein Teil der Eintrübung wird kompensiert durch die steigende Nachfrage der privaten Haushalte nach Konsumgütern und Wohnungen. Dämpfend wirken dabei allerdings die Ausrichtung der Produktion in Ostdeutschland auf Standardprodukte und auf Regionen in Westeuropa sowie der demographische Faktor. Der Aufschwung am Arbeitsmarkt läuft im Jahr 2012 aus. Der nachfragebedingte Produktionsrückgang wird nicht durch die gestiegene Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Unternehmen auf der Kostenseite ausgeglichen. So besteht in der gewerblichen Wirtschaft insgesamt nur ein minimaler Wettbewerbsvorsprung der ost- gegenüber den westdeutschen Anbietern.
Gemäß dieser Prognose wächst das Bruttoinlandsprodukt der ostdeutschen Flächenländer auch in diesem Jahr langsamer als in Westdeutschland. Der wirtschaftliche Aufholprozess stagniert pro Einwohner. Der Abstand in der Arbeitsproduktivität verringert sich leicht.
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The Productivity Effect of Temporary Agency Work: Evidence from German Panel Data
Boris Hirsch, Steffen Müller
Economic Journal,
No. 562,
2012
Abstract
This study investigates the effect of temporary agency work on the user firm’s productivity. We hypothesise that using temporary agency work to enhance numerical flexibility and to screen job candidates may increase productivity, whereas temporary workers’ lower firm-specific human capital and spillover effects on the user’s permanent employees may adversely affect productivity. Other than the sparse existing literature on this issue, we exploit a large panel data set and control for time-invariant and time-varying unobserved heterogeneity by using the system GMM estimator. We find a robust hump-shaped effect of the extent of temporary agency work on the user firm’s productivity.
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Do Women Benefit from Competitive Markets? Product Market Competition and the Gender Pay Gap in Germany
Boris Hirsch, Michael Oberfichtner, Claus Schnabel
Economics Bulletin,
No. 2,
2012
Abstract
Using a large linked employer–employee dataset for Germany with a direct plant-level measure of product market competition and controlling for job-cell fixed effects, we investigate whether relative wages of women benefit from strong competition. We find that the unexplained gender pay gap is about 2.4 log points lower in West German plants that face strong product market competition than in those experiencing weak competition, whereas no such link shows up for East Germany.
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