Will Oil Prices Decline Over the Long Run?
Filippo di Mauro, Robert K. Kaufmann, Pavlos Karadeloglou
ECB Occasional Paper Series,
No. 98,
2008
Abstract
At present, oil markets appear to be behaving in a fashion similar to that in the late 1970s and early 1980s when oil prices rose sharply over an extended period. Furthermore, like at that time, analysts are split on whether such increases will persist or reverse, and if so by how much. The present paper argues that the similarities between the two episodes are not as strong as they might appear at first sight, and that the likelihood of sharp reversals in prices is not particularly great. There are a number of reasons in support of the view that it is unlikely that the first two decades of this century will mimic the last two decades of the previous century. First, oil demand is likely to grow significantly in line with strong economic growth in non-OECD countries. Second, on the supply side, OPEC is likely to enhance its control over markets over the next two decades, as supply increases in newly opened areas will only partially offset declining rates of production in other geologically mature non-OPEC oil regions. Moreover, while concerns about climate change will spur global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, these efforts are not expected to reduce oil demand. Finally, although there is much talk about alternative fuels, few of these are economically viable at the prices currently envisioned, and given the structural impediments, there is a reduced likelihood that the market will be able to generate sufficient quantities of these alternative fuels over the forecast horizon. The above factors imply that oil prices are likely to continue to exceed the USD 70 to USD 90 range over the long term.
Read article
Exchange Rates and FDI: Goods versus Capital Market Frictions
Claudia M. Buch, J. Kleinert
World Economy,
forthcoming
Abstract
Changes in exchange rates affect countries through their impact on cross-border activities such as trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). With increasing activities of multinational firms, the FDI channel is likely to gain in importance. Economic theory provides two main explanations why changes in exchange rates can affect FDI. According to the first explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if there are information frictions on capital markets and if investment depends on firms’ net worth (capital market friction hypothesis). According to the second explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if output and factor markets are segmented, and if firm-specific assets are important (goods market friction hypothesis). We provide a unified theoretical framework of these two explanations. We analyse the implications of the model empirically using a dataset based on detailed German firm-level data. We find greater support for the goods market than for the capital market friction hypothesis.
Read article
Capital Stock Approximation using Firm Level Panel Data: A Modified Perpetual Inventory Approach
Steffen Müller
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik,
No. 4,
2008
Abstract
Many recent studies exploring conditional factor demand or factor substitution issues use firm level panel data. A considerable number of establishment panels contains no direct information on the capital input, necessary for production or cost function estimation. Incorrect measurement of capital leads to biased estimates and casts doubt on any inference on output elasticities or input substitution properties. The perpetual inventory approach, commonly used for long panels, is a method that attenuates these problems. In this paper a modified perpetual inventory approach is proposed. This method provides more reliable measures for capital input when short firm panels are used and no direct information on capital input is available. The empirical results based on a replication study of Addison et al. (2006) support the conclusion that modified perpetual inventory is superior to previous attempts in particular when fixed effects estimation techniques are used. The method thus makes a considerable number of recently established firm panels accessible to more sophisticated production function or factor demand analyses.
Read article
Implementation of Competition Law in Developing and Transition Countries. Theoretical and Empirical Considerations
Franz Kronthaler
Schriften des IWH,
No. 26,
2007
Abstract
The success of free market economies over the last 200 years supports the notion that competition increases individual and social wealth. Developing countries that have undergone the necessary reforms today are amongst the most driving “emerging” economies in the world.
Read article
Getting out of the Ivory Tower - New Perspectives on the Entrepreneurial University
Jutta Günther, Kerstin Wagner
Discussion Papers on Entrepreneurship and Innovation,
No. 2,
2007
Abstract
Based on theoretical considerations about the “third mission” of universities and the discussion of the nature of different university-industry relations, we conclude that the entrepreneurial university is a manifold institution with direct ways to transfer technology from academia to industry as well as indirect connections to industry via entrepreneurship education and training. While existing literature usually deals with one or another linking mechanism separately, our central hypothesises is that direct and indirect mechanisms should be interrelated and mutually complementary. We emphasize the importance of a more holistic view and empirically investigate the scope and interrelatedness of entrepreneurship education and direct technology transfer mechanisms at German universities. We find a variety of activities in both fields and evidence for an identification of HEI with the mission of knowledge commercialisation. Furthermore, it shows that the HEIs’ technology transfer facilities and the entrepreneurship education providers co-operate in support of the creation of spin-offs and innovative start-ups.
Read article
The Role of the Human Capital and Managerial Skills in Explaining the Productivity Gaps between East and West
Wolfgang Steffen, Johannes Stephan
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2007
Abstract
This paper assess determinants of productivity gaps between firms in the European transition countries and regions and firms in West Germany. The analysis is conducted at the firm level by use of a unique database constructed by field work. The determinants tested in a simple econometric regression model are focussed upon the issue of human capital and modern market-oriented management. The results are novel in as much as a solution was established for the puzzling results in related research with respect to a comparison of formal qualification between East and West. Furthermore, the analysis was able to establish that the kind of human capital and expertise mostly needed in the post-socialist firms are related to the particular requirements of a competitive marketbased economic environment. Finally, the analysis also finds empirical support for the role of capital deepening in productivity catch-up, as well as the case that the gaps in labour productivity are most importantly rooted in a more labour-intense production, which does not give rise to a competitive disadvantage.
Read article
Inflation and relative price variability in the euro area: evidence from a panel threshold model
Dieter Nautz, Juliane Scharff
Bundesbank Discussion Paper, No. 14/2006,
2006
Abstract
In recent macroeconomic theory, relative price variability (RPV) generates the
central distortions of inflation. This paper provides first evidence on the empirical
relation between inflation and RPV in the euro area focusing on threshold effects
of inflation. We find that expected inflation significantly increases RPV if inflation
is either very low (below -1.38% p.a.) or very high (above 5.94% p.a.). In the
intermediate regime, however, expected inflation has no distorting effects which
supports price stability as an outcome of optimal monetary policy.
Read article
Interregional Support Policy for East German Regions
Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
German Annual of Spatial Research and Policy,
2006
Abstract
Read article
Microeconometric Evaluation of Selected ESF-funded ALMP-Programmes
Eva Reinowski, Birgit Schultz
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 17,
2006
Abstract
The study evaluates different ESF-funded labour market programmes by comparing the labour market status at different points in time after the treatment. In order to solve the selection problem we employ a standard matching algorithm with a multi-dimensional distance measure. The effects of the analyzed programmes (wage subsidies, start-up subsidies and qualification measures for recipients of social welfare) are very heterogeneous. It can be observed that the direct integration into the regular labour market provides an advantage for the supported individuals. Its lasting effects, however, strongly depend on the group of persons being supported, the type of treatment and the employers’ financial share.
Read article
Industry Level Technology Gaps and Complementary Knowledge Stocks as Determinants of Intra-MNC Knowledge Flows
Björn Jindra, Johannes Stephan
East-West Journal of Economics and Business,
1 & 2
2005
Abstract
Pursuing a subsidiary level analysis, we this paper tests the ‘technology gap’ hypothesis in the context of intra-MNC knowledge flows. Furthermore, it introduces complementary knowledge stocks into the concept of absorptive capacity. A set of hypotheses is tested in sample 434 foreign subsidiaries based in Central and East Europe. We find partial support for the ‘technology gap’ hypothesis applied at industry level. Furthermore, subsidiaries’ complementary knowledge stocks increase the probability for corresponding knowledge inflows from the foreign parent.
Read article
