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EFN Report Winter 2010/11: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2011 and 2012

, 2010
Abstract
In most advanced economies, strained public finances compel central banks to keep their expansive course, while interest rates in most emerging markets continue to be relatively low, if compared to their high potential growth rates. Thus, expansive monetary policies throughout the world, while giving cause for concern regarding long run macroeconomic stability, brighten the growth prospects for 2011. Developments in the group of countries that are neither booming nor in stagnation will be pivotal for the euro area economy in 2011. Economic sentiment indicators appear to suggest that important core countries are benefiting more and more from the upswing in Germany. In addition, the crisis of confidence in 2010 has weakened the common currency and thus improved the competitiveness of firms producing in the euro area.
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Deutschland im Aufschwung - Wirtschaftspolitik vor wichtigen Entscheidungen: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2010

Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie, 2010
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich im Aufschwung. Die Institute prognostizieren eine Zunahme des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 3,5 % für das Jahr 2010 und um 2,0 % für das Jahr 2011. Die Lage am Arbeitsmarkt wird sich dabei weiter verbessern. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen dürfte im Jahresdurchschnitt 2011 erstmals seit 1992 unter 3 Millionen liegen. Die Defizitquote des Staates dürfte auf 2,7 % sinken. Die Wirtschaftspolitik in Deutschland muss den angekündigten Konsolidierungspfad weitergehen. Auf europäischer Ebene sind Insolvenzordnungen für Staaten und Banken erforderlich. Ein strengerer Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt könnte als ergänzende Maßnahme sinnvoll sein. Eine Verlängerung des Rettungsschirms für Euroländer oder die Einführung von gepoolten Staatsanleihen sind dagegen genauso abzulehnen wie der von der EU-Kommission vorgeschlagene Mechanismus zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte.
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EFN Report Autumn 2010: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011

, 2010
Abstract
The euro area economy benefits from dynamic growth of exports to the emerging markets. Exports to Asia in particular have exceeded their peak level of spring 2008 as early as at the beginning of this year. Firms reacted by restocking and investing in equipment. The growth hike of the second quarter, however, will not be repeated, as it was favored by special factors. We expect euro area GDP to grow by around 1.6% in 2010 and 2011. The upswing of world trade calms down in the second half of this year and the effects of fiscal consolidation in Europe become increasingly felt.
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EFN Report Summer 2010: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011

, 2010
Abstract
The world economy is recovering, largely driven by upswings in most emerging market economies. Although growth in these regions is apparently calming down at present, the euro area will still be benefiting from the momentum of a healthily expanding world trade for much of the remaining year. Rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery in the euro area during the first half of 2010. We expect euro area GDP to grow by around 1.0% in 2010 and 1.6% in 2011, respectively. Due to this increase in external demand, the growth rate of the industrial production index has also gained momentum: during 2010 the industrial production index is expected to grow around 7%, though only at about 3% in 2011.
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04.06.2010 • 30/2010

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: IWH-Forscher weiter im Kreis der führenden Konjunkturexperten

Das Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) wird auch in den kommenden drei Jahren an dem gemeinsamen Konjunkturgutachten der Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute für die Bundesregierung mitarbeiten. Am Donnerstag verkündete das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium die Entscheidung zugunsten der Bietergemeinschaft des IWH mit dem neuen Partner, der Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting GmbH & Co. KG. Ebenfalls beteiligt sind das ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e. V. an der Universität München gemeinsam mit der Konjunkturforschungsstelle an der ETH Zürich KOF, das Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel gemeinsam mit dem Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH Mannheim und das Rheinisch-Westfälische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e. V. Essen mit dem Institut für Höhere Studien Wien.

Oliver Holtemöller
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EFN Report Spring 2010: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011

, 2010
Abstract
The world economy will recover during 2010 and 2011 thanks to ultra-low key interest rates in industrial countries and to the strong growth in emerging markets economies. In the euro area, however, the phasing out of expansive fiscal policies and fiscal consolidation will drag down demand; rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery. Internal demand will have a positive (although small) contribution to growth in 2011. We expect euro area GDP to grow around 1.2% and 1.6% during 2010 and 2011, respectively. Due to rising exports, the industrial sector will resume positive growth in the short run but the intensity of the recovery will be moderate and insufficient to compensate the sharp fall of 2009: at the end of 2011, the industrial production index is expected to be still 10% below its pre-crisis levels.
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A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model

Sebastian Giesen, Oliver Holtemöller, Juliane Scharff, Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2010
published in: Economic Modelling
Abstract
In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model – the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) – is closely related to studies recently published by the International Monetary Fund (global projection model). Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In this version we consider Germany and France, which represent together about 50 percent of Euro area GDP. The model allows for country specific heterogeneity in the sense that we capture different adjustment patterns to economic shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian techniques. Out-of-sample and pseudo out-of-sample forecasts are presented.
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EFN Report Winter 2009/10: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011

, 2010
Abstract
In 2010, the recovery of the world economy will be driven by a strong expansion of production in many emerging markets. Rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery in the euro area. We expect GDP to grow around 1.7% and 1.2% uring 2010 and 2011, respectively. What impedes the recovery is the state of labour markets. In fact, unemployment will continue to rise well into 2011, partly because firms with low capacity utilization will no longer be able to keep workers in employment. The most important reason for the recovery of the real economy appears to be renewed – although still fragile – confidence on financial markets. Official interest rates close to zero and substantial purchases of highly rated assets by important central banks have drastically increased the attractiveness of more risky assets.
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The ADR Shadow Exchange Rate as an Early Warning Indicator for Currency Crises

Stefan Eichler, Alexander Karmann, Dominik Maltritz
Journal of Banking and Finance, No. 11, 2009
Abstract
We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners’ currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.
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EFN Report Autumn 2009: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2009 and 2010

, 2009
Abstract
The world wide recovery will put an end to the recession in the euro area in the second half of 2009, but chances for a robust upswing for the year 2010 are slim. We expect GDP to fall around 4.0% in 2009, but a positive growth rate of 0.8% in 2010. However, as unemployment will continue to rise and fiscal policy in member countries with high budget deficits will become restrictive, private consumption is expected to decrease by -0.5% in 2010. Public consumption, public investment and exports will support aggregate demand. Industrial production has bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009. Nevertheless, industrial recovery will take time and average growth rates are expected to be just slightly positive in 2010 (1.1%). It is worth mentioning that this figure has improved significantly since our last report, as world trade has started to recover and some firms are restocking their inventories or reducing them at a slower rate than in the first half of the year. However, private investment will be declining well into next year, as capacity utilization is extremely low and the real costs of financing are not as attractive as interest rate figures appear to suggest.
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