MNE’s Regional Location Choice - A Comparative Perspective on East Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland
Andrea Gauselmann, Philipp Marek, J. P. Angenendt
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 8,
2011
published in: Empirica
Abstract
The focus of this article is the empirical identification of factors influencing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in transition economies on a regional level (NUTS 2). The analysis is designed as benchmark between three neighboring post-communist regions, i.e. East Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland. Their different transition paths have not only resulted in economic differences. We can also observe today that the importance of pull factors for FDI varies significantly across the regions. This analysis shows that in comparison with Poland and the Czech Republic, East Germany’s major benefit is its purchasing power, its geographical proximity to West European markets, and its modern infrastructure. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that intra-industry linkages such as specialization and agglomeration economies are relevant factors for the location decision of foreign investors. This result can help to explain the regional divergence of FDI streams in transition economies.
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Vierteljährliche Konjunkturberichterstattung für das Land Sachsen-Anhalt – Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Lage im 1. Quartal 2011 –
Udo Ludwig, Brigitte Loose, Franziska Exß
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
Zu Beginn des Jahres hat sich die gesamtwirtschaftliche Aktivität in Sachsen-Anhalt weiter erholt. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist nach den moderaten Zuwächsen in der zweiten Hälfte des vergangenen Jahres mit 1,4% gegenüber dem Schlussquartal 2010 so kräftig gestiegen wie im Schnitt in Deutschland. Die Wachstumsführerschaft lag beim Baugewerbe, während die industrielle Wertschöpfung insgesamt bei ausgeprägt gegenläufigen Entwicklungen zwischen den Branchen stagnierte. Das Baugewerbe holte die im frühen Wintereinbruch Ende 2010 aufgetretenen Produktionsausfälle kräftig auf. Handel und Verkehr profitierten vom deutschlandweit sprunghaften Nachfrageanstieg. Während die unternehmensnahen privaten Dienstleister vom konjunkturellen Aufschwung in Deutschland insgesamt mitgezogen wurden, standen die öffentlichen Dienstleister weiterhin unter dem Druck der anhaltenden Haushaltskonsolidierung im Bereich Öffentliche Verwaltung, Erziehung und Unterricht.
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Entrepreneurial Opportunity and the Formation of Photovoltaic Clusters in Eastern Germany
Matthias Brachert, Christoph Hornych
R. Wüstenhagen, R. Wuebker (Hrsg.), Handbook of Research on Energy Entrepreneurship,
2011
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to explain the evolution of the spatial structures of one particular type of renewable energy in Germany – the photovoltaic (PV) industry. We first demonstrate how environmental movements have contributed to institutional change and government action, leading to changes in the legal and regulative structure in Germany. We describe how these changes opened up a window of locational opportunity (WLO), thus combining the WLO concept with the entrepreneurial opportunity concept. As market entries occurred mainly in Eastern Germany, the paper also explores the factors leading to a concentration of economic activity related to the new PV industry in this part of the country. Based on the WLO concept, we combine this framework with the industrial dynamics literature by Klepper (2007) and illustrate the spatial evolution of the PV industry.
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Africa and the Global Financial Crisis - Impact on Economic Reform Processes
R. Adelou Alabi, J. Alemazung, Achim Gutowski, Robert Kappel, Tobias Knedlik, O. Osnachi Uzor, Karl Wohlmuth, Hans H. Bass
African Development Perspectives Yearbook, Vol. 15,
2011
Abstract
In volume XV of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook, the Research Group on African Development Perspectives investigates the impact of the GFC on economic reform processes in Africa. The analysis is structured in such a way so as to reflect the opportunities and dangers of policy reversals in the face of the GFC. The impact of the crisis on different types and forms of governance in the region is considered. The first question is therefore which macro-economic policy instruments have to be applied in order to overcome the crisis and to continue with sustainable development. The second question is how the GFC has affected Africa's external economic relations and if the path of opening up to the world markets is continued. The third question raised is how the crisis has affected social cohesion, impacted on poverty alleviation strategies and the achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). All these questions are discussed in the various contributions which comprise general studies and country case studies. The authors also looked into the role of international financial institutions during and after the crisis. The volume XV of the African Development Perspectives Yearbook is structured into three Units. Unit 1 addresses general issues regarding the impact of the GFC on reform processes in Africa. Unit 2 presents case studies from countries and sub-regions. Unit 3 presents reviews and book notes of current literature focusing on issues of African development perspectives.
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Incubating an Illusion? Long-term Incubator Firm Performance after Graduation
Michael Schwartz
Growth and Change,
No. 4,
2011
Abstract
Local economic development policies worldwide perceive business incubation as an effective measure to promote regional growth through the support of young and innovative ventures. The common assumption is that incubation promotes firm growth, in particular after these firms graduated from their incubator organizations. This article investigates the long-term performance of 324 graduate firms from five German business incubators (incubated between 1990 and 2006) after they have (successfully) completed their incubation. The present study does not suffer from a survivor bias, meaning that performance data of non-surviving firms is also included. Using employment and sales measures as performance indicators, this study contributes to our knowledge with regard to long-term incubator firm performance after graduation. While in the first years after graduation there is significant growth of formerly incubated firms, further results do not support the presumption of continuous firm growth beyond incubation. A minority of graduate firms exhibits a strong increase in performance, but the majority of firms do not experience considerable growth.
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Where Are Global and U.S. Trade Heading in the Aftermath of the Trade Collapse: Issues and Alternative Scenarios
Filippo di Mauro, Joseph Gruber, Bernd Schnatz, Nico Zorell
FRB International Finance Discussion Paper,
No. 1017,
2011
Abstract
Global and U.S. trade declined dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. The subsequent recovery in trade, while vigorous at first, gradually lost momentum in 2010. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the prospects for global and U.S. trade in the medium term. We develop a unified empirical framework ? an error correction model ? that exploits the cointegrating relationship between trade and economic activity. The model allows us to juxtapose several scenarios with different assumptions about the strength of GDP growth going forward and the relationship between trade and economic activity. Our analysis suggests that during the crisis both world trade and U.S. exports declined significantly more than would have been expected on the basis of historical relationships with economic activity. Moreover, this gap between actual and equilibrium trade is closing only slowly and could persist for some time to come.
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Central and Eastern European Countries in the Global Financial Crisis: A Typical Twin Crisis?
Diemo Dietrich, Tobias Knedlik, Axel Lindner
Post-Communist Economies,
No. 4,
2011
Abstract
This paper shows that during the Great Recession, banking and currency crises occurred simultaneously in Central and Eastern Europe. Events, however, differed widely from what happened during the Asian crisis that usually serves as the model case for the concept of twin crises. We look at three elements that help explaining the nature of events in Central and Eastern Europe: the problem of currency mismatches, the relation between currency and banking crises, and the importance of multinational banks for financial stability. It is shown that theoretical considerations concerning internal capital markets of multinational banks help understand what happened on capital markets and in the financial sector of the region. We discuss opposing effects of multinational banking on financial stability and find that institutional differences are the key to understand differing effects of the global financial crisis. In particular, we argue that it matters if international activities are organized by subsidiaries or by cross-border financial services, how large the share of foreign currency-denominated credit is and whether the exchange rate is fixed or flexible. Based on these three criteria we give an explanation why the pattern of the crisis in the Baltic States differed markedly from that in Poland and the Czech Republic, the two largest countries of the region.
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Flow of Conjunctural Information and Forecast of Euro Area Economic Activity
Katja Drechsel, L. Maurin
Journal of Forecasting,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
Combining forecasts, we analyse the role of information flow in computing short-term forecasts up to one quarter ahead for the euro area GDP and its main components. A dataset of 114 monthly indicators is set up and simple bridge equations are estimated. The individual forecasts are then pooled, using different weighting schemes. To take into consideration the release calendar of each indicator, six forecasts are compiled successively during the quarter. We found that the sequencing of information determines the weight allocated to each block of indicators, especially when the first month of hard data becomes available. This conclusion extends the findings of the recent literature. Moreover, when combining forecasts, two weighting schemes are found to outperform the equal weighting scheme in almost all cases. Compared to an AR forecast, these improve by more than 40% the forecast performance for GDP in the current and next quarter.
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What Drives FDI in Central-eastern Europe? Evidence from the IWH-FDI-Micro Database
Andrea Gauselmann, Mark Knell, Johannes Stephan
Post-Communist Economies,
No. 3,
2011
Abstract
The focus of this paper is on the match between strategic motives of foreign investments into Central-Eastern Europe and locational advantages offered by these countries. Our analysis makes use of the IWH-FDI-Micro Database, a unique dataset that contains information from 2009 about the determinants of locational factors, technological activity of the subsidiaries, and the potentials for knowledge spillovers in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The analysis suggests that investors in these countries are mainly interested in low (unit) labour costs coupled with a well-trained and educated workforce and an expanding market with the high growth rates in the purchasing power of potential buyers. It also suggests that the financial crisis reduced the attractiveness of the region as a source for localised knowledge and technology. There appears to be a match between investors’ expectations and the quantitative supply of unqualified labour, not however for the supply of medium qualified workers. But the analysis suggests that it is not technology-seeking investments that are particularly content with the capabilities of their host economies in terms of technological cooperation. Finally, technological cooperation within the local host economy is assessed more favourably with domestic firms than with local scientific institutions – an important message for domestic economic policy.
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